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Post by quetee on Oct 6, 2019 18:23:13 GMT
I only included movies that received at least one vote from September. If you think something not on this list has a chance at a BP win, please post it.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 6, 2019 18:26:49 GMT
I think we'll look back on September 27th as the day The Irishman basically murdered the five families....it just exploded the race...it's always been in the lead but I think now everything looks small next to it.
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Post by quetee on Oct 6, 2019 18:30:34 GMT
I think we'll look back on September 27th as the day The Irishman basically murdered the five families....it just exploded the race...it's always been in the lead but I think now everything looks small next to it. Last poll it was in 3rd place.
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Post by TerryMontana on Oct 6, 2019 18:35:24 GMT
I still see OUATIH being a strong contender for Scorsese.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 6, 2019 18:53:51 GMT
I still see OUATIH being a strong contender for Scorsese. I kind of agree as that picture - my problems with the 3rd act aside - checks off a lot of Academy boxes and serves as a coherent "Non-Netflix" challenger.
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Post by quetee on Oct 6, 2019 19:06:43 GMT
I still see OUATIH being a strong contender for Scorsese. I kind of agree as that picture - my problems with the 3rd act aside - checks off a lot of Academy boxes and serves as a coherent "Non-Netflix" challenger. We don't know the quality of the following: 1917 Cats Little Women Bombshell Richard Jewell So there are other Non-Netflix challengers that could surprise.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 6, 2019 19:09:01 GMT
I voted for The Irishman, but I wouldn't consider it a lock just yet. There may be other films that do better on a preferential ballot. Under the old system, I'd probably be more confident in it, but something else might be more of a consensus favorite.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: It's about voters' favorite subject, themselves, but on a scale of "epicness" and what a director accomplished, I think that Scorsese would definitely win over Tarantino. Tarantino might not have won Best Director or Best Picture yet, but he has two Original Screenplay wins which I think could be considered enough. Plus, it probably won't be his last film unless he retires early or something.
I also think that too slow criticisms will hurt OUATIH as well, so that's something else that won't give it an advantage.
Marriage Story: I don't know if it will seem "important" enough, even though divorce is something that most if not all of us can relate to on some level, and that it's a very serious matter. On the other hand, other than Jojo Rabbit, there doesn't seem to be another realistic BP contender that has that factor. It also seems to lack the scale of the other 3-4 possible winners, but that might not necessarily be a bad thing because those other films might cancel each other out. What it does have going for it though is that I think it could do very well on a preferential ballot.
Probably won't make any sense to anyone but me, but I think it was actually good that it didn't win anything at Venice, and that The Irishman emerged as a frontrunner. I was afraid it might peak too early, and that there would be backlash to it so far being the American film with the best reviews of the year. However, after Venice, it became the underdog, and now with Netflix having The Irishman, it can continue it's stealth underdog run.
It reminds me of Fox Searchlight having both The Shape of Water vs. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri. The former started out as the big frontrunner after it won Venice, and then things seemed to switch after it failed to place at TIFF while the latter won there. Then throughout the season as TBOoEM kept winning awards and keeping its frontrunner status, it got more and more backlash while The Shape of Water was able to escape that and go onto win Best Picture.
Perhaps we'll see something similar with Netflix this year. I'm not sure which film will be which though.
Jojo Rabbit: Lightning could strike twice, but it feels too much like Green Book except with even worse reviews and likely no acting wins, so I doubt it can go all the way. However, it is "important", and a lot of audiences seem to be eating it up which can make it very dangerous.
1917: Feels like it could be a big tech winner, but I doubt it's going to have enough support from the largest branch of the Academy, the actors. Also it feels weird if Mendes not only does what Nolan couldn't do just a couple of years ago, but that he also beats Scorsese and Tarantino at least in BP. Maybe BD, he could still win because it's possible enough voters feel impressed by the technical aspect of it for him to win there. I think it's very unlikely that it wins BP though.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Oct 6, 2019 19:41:01 GMT
Here's how I'd rank the current "potential nominations".
The Irishman - Certainly has the best reviews of the bunch. Scorsese's return to the gangster genre should help it too, that and the obvious multiple nominations it'll receive, but I'd be hardpressed to call it a lock, considering it's still October. For all we know, any film could come out of nowhere to change up the playing-field.
Marriage Story - It's a great film, and it's got excellent reviews, but I think it might actually be a little less showy for the academy. Would be an inspiring win, though, considering it's subject matter.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - It's Tarantino, it's a love letter to Hollywood, which is what the academy adores, however I still think being released in July, and some of the overt criticisms directed towards the film, will probably hurt it.
It's A Beautiful Day in The Neighborhood - Great reviews, great praise for its leading performances, but I don't think it's getting a best director nomination, which will no doubt hurt it. Hard to see this one winning best picture, unless it starts dominating the major category.
1917 - This one's a wild card. Early word of mouth is supposed to be fantastic, but we still don't have any reviews yet. War films have also a hard time winning best picture as of late, and as mentioned already, it's hard to see this film winning when Dunkirk couldn't. I'd give a 20 / 80 chance right now, but it could improve, given that the movie doesn't get released until December.
Joker - Reviews have definitely gotten worse (major critics tore it to shred), since The Golden Lion win. It's easy to see Phoenix being nominated, but the movie itself might be left out of the best picture circuit, simply by virtue of competition. However it's Warner Bros only potential frontrunner this year, so they'll no doubt give it a huge push.
The Two Popes - Netflix will no doubt prioritize The Irishman over this. Easy to see it getting some acting nominations, less so a best picture win.
The Report - While initial reviews are strong, more then anything, what looks to hurt this, is that it'll probably get lost in the shuffle alongside other Oscar potentials.
Jojo Rabbit - Reviews have improved quite a bit recently, however it's still not been so warmly received by critics. There's also the complaint that it plays its satire subject matter too safe (the fact that Waititi made it PG-13, suggests that they were trying to go for the widest audience possible). Outside of best adapted screenplay (a thin category this year), and maybe a few technical nods, it's hard to imagine it being a major player at all.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 6, 2019 22:45:15 GMT
I'm gonna stick with OUATIH for now, but it's a tough call between that and The Irishman.
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Post by stephen on Oct 6, 2019 23:16:10 GMT
Marriage Story still feels right. It's almost assuredly winning at least one acting Oscar, possibly two and maybe even three. It's also the frontrunner for Original Screenplay, at least on paper. I suspect it'll be another split between Picture and Director this year, with either Scorsese or Mendes taking the Director prize.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 6, 2019 23:30:23 GMT
Jojo R.
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Post by Martin Stett on Oct 7, 2019 0:05:06 GMT
So... who wants to give me their Netflix password so I can watch The Irishman?
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Post by doddgerhardt on Oct 7, 2019 0:40:17 GMT
The Irishman.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 7, 2019 1:29:06 GMT
I can see preferential balloting favoring Marriage Story. It's not a polarizing film to get lower rankings. AMPAS also seems to have gotten away from the epic Best Picture winners.
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Post by quetee on Oct 7, 2019 1:59:16 GMT
I can see preferential balloting favoring Marriage Story. It's not a polarizing film to get lower rankings. AMPAS also seems to have gotten away from the epic Best Picture winners. The problem is with Netflix. Marriage Story is directed by a guy whose movies make no money at the box office. I'm sure had this movie been released, it probably would gross no more than $20mil dollars anyway. With Netflix, we will have no idea of its popularity(unless they are transparent this year). I just can't see the academy giving bp to a movie that nobody watches. At least for Irishman we know more people will watch that one. I think Netflix should just play by the rules and give in to a 42 day window with a proper release and then just release it on the 43rd day to the their network. They are only doing this movie release thing anyway cause they want to win awards. You don't see HBO caring about Oscars.
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Post by pendragon on Oct 7, 2019 2:13:13 GMT
So is it going to come down to The Irishman vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood? That would be hilarious because several months ago, I was certain that that's not what would happen. But none of the fall festival movies really caught fire the way that they usually do. Except maybe Marriage Story, though I think that will end up being not "important" enough to win Best Picture.
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Post by quetee on Oct 7, 2019 2:21:10 GMT
So is it going to come down to The Irishman vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood? That would be hilarious because several months ago, I was certain that that's not what would happen. But none of the fall festival movies really caught fire the way that they usually do. Except maybe Marriage Story, though I think that will end up being not "important" enough to win Best Picture. There are still five unknowns.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Oct 7, 2019 3:14:15 GMT
I can see preferential balloting favoring Marriage Story. It's not a polarizing film to get lower rankings. AMPAS also seems to have gotten away from the epic Best Picture winners. The problem is with Netflix. Marriage Story is directed by a guy whose movies make no money at the box office. I'm sure had this movie been released, it probably would gross no more than $20mil dollars anyway. With Netflix, we will have no idea of its popularity(unless they are transparent this year). I just can't see the academy giving bp to a movie that nobody watches. At least for Irishman we know more people will watch that one. I think Netflix should just play by the rules and give in to a 42 day window with a proper release and then just release it on the 43rd day to the their network. They are only doing this movie release thing anyway cause they want to win awards. You don't see HBO caring about Oscars. But the Best Picture winners of the last few years have not had big box office. The Hurt Locker, Moonlight gross about $20M.
You have to go back to how Best Picture is selected - by preferential ballot. That's how a picture like Moonlight won.
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Post by pendragon on Oct 7, 2019 3:31:39 GMT
So is it going to come down to The Irishman vs. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood? That would be hilarious because several months ago, I was certain that that's not what would happen. But none of the fall festival movies really caught fire the way that they usually do. Except maybe Marriage Story, though I think that will end up being not "important" enough to win Best Picture. There are still five unknowns. True, though the last winner that premiered so late in the season was Million Dollar Baby.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 7, 2019 3:34:52 GMT
The problem is with Netflix. Marriage Story is directed by a guy whose movies make no money at the box office. I'm sure had this movie been released, it probably would gross no more than $20mil dollars anyway. With Netflix, we will have no idea of its popularity(unless they are transparent this year). I just can't see the academy giving bp to a movie that nobody watches. At least for Irishman we know more people will watch that one. I think Netflix should just play by the rules and give in to a 42 day window with a proper release and then just release it on the 43rd day to the their network. They are only doing this movie release thing anyway cause they want to win awards. You don't see HBO caring about Oscars. But the Best Picture winners of the last few years have not had big box office. The Hurt Locker, Moonlight gross about $20M.
You have to go back to how Best Picture is selected - by preferential ballot. That's how a picture like Moonlight won.
But since the ballots are anonymous we have no way of knowing how that effects the voting. Moonlight won with preferential voting but The Hurt Locker didn’t. Both acclaimed and didn’t do well at the box office. For all we will ever know Moonlight could have won under the one system. There is no way of knowing if the preferential ballot effects Marriage Story. Looking at simulations they do every year on Oscar sites the film with the most number 1 votes always wins anyways.
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Post by quetee on Oct 7, 2019 3:35:53 GMT
The problem is with Netflix. Marriage Story is directed by a guy whose movies make no money at the box office. I'm sure had this movie been released, it probably would gross no more than $20mil dollars anyway. With Netflix, we will have no idea of its popularity(unless they are transparent this year). I just can't see the academy giving bp to a movie that nobody watches. At least for Irishman we know more people will watch that one. I think Netflix should just play by the rules and give in to a 42 day window with a proper release and then just release it on the 43rd day to the their network. They are only doing this movie release thing anyway cause they want to win awards. You don't see HBO caring about Oscars. But the Best Picture winners of the last few years have not had big box office. The Hurt Locker, Moonlight gross about $20M.
You have to go back to how Best Picture is selected - by preferential ballot. That's how a picture like Moonlight won.
Those were two historic wins so not sure if box office was a factor. The Hurtlocker was released in spring so it didn't have a chance at an Oscar bump. I know how the bp is selected which is why you can't go based on critic reviews. We have to see how people start to vote. Just cause a movie scores good reviews that doesn't mean you will vote for it. I still think it will be an uphill battle for Netflix cause they there is no transparency. I kept saying last year that Roma was not going to win and that Netflix was purposely not releasing viewer numbers. They did not want the voters to know that bp was not being watch even in the privacy on GP's homes. This time it will be different especially with The Irishman. The jury is still out on Marriage Story though.
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 7, 2019 12:36:16 GMT
Ford/Ferrari, Parasite, Ad Astra, Waves, Pain and Glory, Just Mercy, Uncut Gems, Little Women and Hidden Life are not in contention? jojo rabit looks too cute for BP, ugh.. Parasite actually is the only film that will challenge The Irishman in terms of true passionate support - people really love Parasite (and so did I, though less than Memories of Murder and Mother) The one I can't understand is Marriage Story being picked by anyone to win - it's going to pick up some acting nods and a screenplay nod - and win a few too - but it's going to max out at maybe 6 nods (?) - the passion behind it is for the acting merely. The Irishman, same studio, bigger priority, bigger film, bigger deal, about a bigger subject too that is going to really PEAK next month and get better on repeat watches I'm guessing .................and just wait when the mid-tier "critics" like Richard Roeper begin to fawn over it and then it will play like a tidal wave while ending up with 10+ nods (more even?).......just a colossal bad read to pick Marriage Story to actually win imo......no one is passionate about a divorce film in 2019.
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Post by quetee on Oct 7, 2019 17:05:51 GMT
Ford/Ferrari, Parasite, Ad Astra, Waves, Pain and Glory, Just Mercy, Uncut Gems, Little Women and Hidden Life are not in contention? jojo rabit looks too cute for BP, ugh.. we ignored green book until January and dont get me started with bohemian.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 7, 2019 18:35:30 GMT
I can see preferential balloting favoring Marriage Story. It's not a polarizing film to get lower rankings. AMPAS also seems to have gotten away from the epic Best Picture winners. The problem is with Netflix. Marriage Story is directed by a guy whose movies make no money at the box office. I'm sure had this movie been released, it probably would gross no more than $20mil dollars anyway. With Netflix, we will have no idea of its popularity(unless they are transparent this year). I just can't see the academy giving bp to a movie that nobody watches. At least for Irishman we know more people will watch that one. I think Netflix should just play by the rules and give in to a 42 day window with a proper release and then just release it on the 43rd day to the their network. They are only doing this movie release thing anyway cause they want to win awards. You don't see HBO caring about Oscars. Eventually though I believe the industry landscape is going to change, and streaming services like Netflix will probably end up being a large part of the film industry awards the same way that cable television and streaming services dominate the television awards now versus network television which rarely gets nominated let alone wins anything except for a television show or actor here or there like This Is Us. HBO actually does care a lot about awards, but they focus primarily on the Emmys. It also took them awhile to get their, but to be fair they were focused first on attracting people to their paid channel through big live events and recent popular films. Over time they began to see that they could attract subscribers with original programming as well, and they slowly began to conquer the Outstanding Television Movie category and categories related to that with early HBO original movies like Murderers Among Us: The Simon Wiesenthal Story from 1989 and The Josephine Baker Story from 1991 that were nominated for the top award but lost. Just 4 short years later though, they would win the top award 7 years in a row when Barbarians at the Gate and Stalin both tied for the top prize in 1993. Then they began to go to work on the other big categories like Original Comedy Series with The Larry Sanders Show and Sex and the City and Original Dramatic Series with The Sopranos. Sex and the City won in 2001, and while the next year it lost, HBO was able to get two shows nominated in the category with Sex and the City and Curb Your Enthusiasm. The Sopranos won Outstanding Drama Series in 2004 over network award juggernaut The West Wing, and even with The Sopranos not being eligible the next year, HBO was able to get Deadwood nominated in the same category. By the end of the 00s, the television industry awards were no longer ruled by network television but by cable with other networks seeing that HBO could attract top talent and awards and following their lead like Showtime with Weeds and Dexter or FX with Damages. So Netflix is very similar to HBO in that they both realized that they could attract subscribers with original award winning programming, and that one of the best ways to do that was to attract the most in demand and best talent, and they've been doing that by becoming known as the place that stars and filmmakers can go to, to make basically whatever they want no matter how much it costs. Will they be successful as HBO as become? I'm not sure because other film companies are going after Netflix now with their own subscription services. Already though this awards season Amazon has decided that it wants to follow Netflix's model more instead of releasing films into theaters, and I expect we'll see a combined Oscar/Emmy thing in the future because the landscape between what is made for television and what is made for film will be so blurred. Also because other companies are going to release their best stuff to their subscription channels to get people hooked and to stay hooked like how Disney+, AppleTV+, CBS All Access, etc., are spending a lot of money for shows and films to put on their streaming channels. Ford/Ferrari, Parasite, Ad Astra, Waves, Pain and Glory, Just Mercy, Uncut Gems, Little Women and Hidden Life are not in contention? jojo rabit looks too cute for BP, ugh.. Parasite actually is the only film that will challenge The Irishman in terms of true passionate support - people really love Parasite (and so did I, though less than Memories of Murder and Mother) The one I can't understand is Marriage Story being picked by anyone to win - it's going to pick up some acting nods and a screenplay nod - and win a few too - but it's going to max out at maybe 6 nods (?) - the passion behind it is for the acting merely. The Irishman, same studio, bigger priority, bigger film, bigger deal, about a bigger subject too that is going to really PEAK next month and get better on repeat watches I'm guessing .................and just wait when the mid-tier "critics" like Richard Roeper begin to fawn over it and then it will play like a tidal wave while ending up with 10+ nods (more even?).......just a colossal bad read to pick Marriage Story to actually win imo......no one is passionate about a divorce film in 2019. I think it will get more than 6 nominations. Assuming the three actors that everyone is predicting to get nominated for it are safe, plus Picture plus Director and Original Screenplay, it can also be nominated for Original Score since that many reviewers have commented positively on it, and maybe Editing, and possibly Cinematography although that's more of a longshot. Alda or Liotta could also possibly coattail on the strength of the film, but with how competitive their category is, I would say that if they do, the only televised award show that they'll be nominated at is the Oscars and will indicate how much all around passion their is for the film like when Marina de Tavira was nominated last year. I would say probably between 7-8 nominations is the ceiling, which is still pretty good considering that Green Book was only nominated for 5 Oscars. As filmnoir pointed out AMPAS has moved away from epic films winning. There hasn't been a true sweep in over 10 years, and we've seen in the past few years that one or two awards is enough to win Best Picture generally three since Green Book, Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave all only won screenplay plus one supporting category and Best Picture. That's exactly what Marriage Story would have. Moonlight was nominated for 8 Oscars and was able to beat La La Land which tied the record for most Oscar nominations. Spotlight beat both The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road despite being a smaller film than they were were. 12 Years a Slave beat Gravity despite the latter winning Best Director and winning 6 other Oscars. Argo won 3 Oscars to The Life of Pi's 4 Oscars despite the former being nominated for only 7 Oscars while the latter was nominated for 10 Oscars. On the opposite side of the coin, 4 times this decade, the Best Director winner has gone on to also win Best Picture, so this could be one of those years if Scorsese wins Best Director.
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Post by quetee on Oct 7, 2019 18:44:09 GMT
I understand what you are saying but even hbo gives non subscribers a chance to watch their shows. Yes cable and streaming dominate the emmys but nobody is watching the show anymore. We still need to remember that 30% of population are not on internet. I jusr hate the fact that Netflix is not really giving people an opportunity to watch the movie. The king for example comes out in theaters on two days and i cant even find it in LA. I do believe my luck will be better with the Irishman cause it appears all Netflix's movies go to Alamo drafthouse dtla.
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