AUGUST OSCAR PREDICTIONS

No Irishman in BP? 

Well, Roma was close and if anybody can break the Netflix-BP-"Curse" its Scorsese.
But yeah I also dont predict it for BP just yet. 

I totally agree, only I don't see it happening...

Well it could go either way.... but I do think this will finally be the year he will be in again.

I am also not sure of Pryce will go lead or supporting. Maybe they will swap

here goes nothing

BEST PICTURE
1917
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Harriet
The Irishman
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Lulu Wang, The Farewell

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Renée Zellweger, Judy

BEST ACTOR
Antonia Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Octavia Spencer, Luce

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Farewell
Harriet
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pain and Glory

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
The Laundromat
Little Women

Best Picture
1917
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Harriet
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Just Mercy
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Director
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Joon-ho Bong, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Actress
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat
Renee Zellweger, Judy

(I know Clayton Davis said she's going Supporting, but it seems like it could be a borderline role, and that Streep will get to make the final call. I think she'd prefer leading especially if she doesn't have any chance of winning either category.)

Best Supporting Actor
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sam Rockwell, Jojo Rabbit

Best Supporting Actress
Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit
Zhao Shunzhen, The Farewell
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Original Screenplay
The Farewell
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Report

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Just Mercy
Little Women

why are we assuming Just Mercy will be nominated for anything? Is there early screening buzz I'm not aware of? There must be because prestige-y social justice biopics are definitely no sure thing and Cretton's last biopic flopped hard. I suppose we'll have to wait for TIFF (and a trailer would be nice) but on paper there's just so much that can go wrong with this one. And with Harriet likely squeezing in (seems to have a better chance anyways), I think voters might just think they've ticked that race-themed social justice box and call it a day with the one directed by the white dude. Am i wrong?

TIFF Director Cameron Bailey mentioned it as a possible People's Choice Winner after the first batch of films that were revealed to be playing at TIFF, and then he mentioned it again in an article I posted yesterday in the TIFF thread.



Plus before that, there's been various buzz about it elsewhere. First I heard Jamie Foxx had a very baity role which makes sense, but then there were reshoots, and it seemed it might get pushed to next year, until it was official that it was releasing this year in December. Opening at that time doesn't necessarily mean that it's an awards film, but usually that's what it means, and even though WB has Joker already, they can definitely manage two films and are taking this one to TIFF and maybe Telluride.



My feeling is that the awards push for Joker is mostly for Joaquin Phoenix's performance because they know that he has a good chance to win Best Actor with it because he's that good, but that Just Mercy is their push for Best Picture. No idea if things will work out that way, but I feel Joker would be much too divisive to win Best Picture if it's even nominated.




The buzz might not pan out, but I agree with DeepArcher that at this point everything is pretty much a shot in the dark. I hear about various things being good or bad, and a few times that's worked out like before Room and Green Book won the People's Choice Festival at Toronto, I read that those films just had a vibe about them after people saw them that they seemed like winners, but then the opposite can happen too like all that great buzz with Joy at least from certain circles after one of its test screenings or Selma not being any good. 

I just try to take everything with a grain of salt; although, I admit I can be biased. Like with Marriage Story, I was cautiously optimistic because of the initial buzz about Laura Dern because I'd like to see her win an Oscar someday, but at the same time, I tried to keep in mind that no one I know has actually seen Marriage Story so that could have been completely made up. 

Now it does seem that Netflix must be very confident in the film to take it to so many festivals, which is a great sign for it, but at the same time, I've heard a lot about Scarlett Johansson and Adam Driver's performances than Dern's, except for only one person who also mentioned Alda, so now I'm a lot more confident about the film, but am doubtful that Dern can really win since it seems like she may not get that much to do as I previously thought. At this point though, it's still just guessing because I haven't seen the film, and there's not enough people who have for me to go by what the majority of them say.