2019 Oscar predictions: Original Screenplay

I think Tarantino, Baumbach, and Wang are going to be shoo-ins. Tarantino just because it's Tarantino, writers love him, and OUATIH has soooo much more critical support and buzz than The Hateful Eight. Baumbach is also very respected and last time he went super personal he garnered a screenplay nod, and I'm guessing Marriage Story might be more accessible than the really caustic Squid and the Whale, maybe even enough to get a BP nod. As for The Farewell, I think it's going to be a big hit but even if it's not, the screenplay is all but locked in.

That just leaves the last two spots. I'm going with Almodóvar, who's found success in this field before and is hugely respected generally. Pain and Glory feels like just the project to get him back in the Oscar conversation, especially with Banderas pegged as a big contender himself. Director seems unlikely, so a screenplay nod seems like the best way to honor Almodóvar.

For that fifth spot, I have Harriet, which I initially wanted to leave out because of the dull af trailer, buuuut this is looking like such a weak field that even if it underperforms critically it could still nab a coattail nod for screenplay to go along with a possible BP nod and very likely Actress nomination, not to mention it's tech potential (production design, costumes, score, cinematography--all possible).

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
2. Marriage Story
3. The Farewell
4. Pain and Glory
5. Harriet

alternates
The Report (a political drama/procedural directed by a guy who made these kinds of films his bread and butter as a writer...if it lands well it'll be a strong contender)
Booksmart (I'd love to see this get in)
Parasite (I guess if there's one film that could finally break the curse on South Korean films at the Oscars, it would be this one...but I'm still thinking it'll be too zany/left field to land)
Fair and Balanced (expecting this to be a trainwreck tbh but I also thought The Big Short and Vice were trainwrecks and the Academy liked those so I guess if Roach and Randolph were able to capture the lighting in the bottle that made those two polished turds attractive to AMPAS then I guess Fair and Balanced could totally happen)
The Souvenir (total critical darling but I think A24 will just have too much on its plate to push this thing at all)

As for the others:
leaving out 1917 since war films haven't been garnering much screenplay love this decade (even BP/BD contenders Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge). The main focus of this recent slate of period war films has been in the tech field and that's where they tend to be most successful. And the new trailer for this thing that dropped is definitely giving me those same vibes. Possibly BP and BD but nothing else above the line.

Also leaving out The Two Popes. There's not enough known about this yet to predict it for anything other than acting, but it's certainly possible I guess. We'll have to wait and see.

We'll also have to wait and see for The Aeronauts. Again, this seems like something that'll get positioned mainly in the tech field, with a possible outside shot for Felicity Jones (and maaaayyybe Redmayne? ugh). Without knowing more I'm just not ready to predict it for anything other than techs right now, least of all screenplay.

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Agree with Tommen-Lloyd-Webber that Tarantino is in basically because he's Tarantino.

2. Marriage Story - Noah Baumbach hasn't broken through in a big way yet with the Oscars, but Netflix obviously thinks that this will be his year. Hopefully, it works out for them because I'm really excited to see the performances.

3. The Farewell - Even if it misses Best Picture, unless this category becomes extremely competitive with the fall festivals, this seems in for its screenplay.

4. Pain and Glory - Pedro Almodóvar is a former winner plus I think Banderas should be in the Oscar conversation all season because he'll campaign, he has plenty of friends that will support him, and he could pick up one of the big 4 critics awards and at least get nominations at the Gothams and Spirits, if eligible.

5. The Report - I could see the writer's branch being impressed with the fact that Scott Z. Burns also wrote The Laundromat.

6. Parasite - I think Best Director is more likely even though I've read people say the opposite, but Director just seems more arty at least lately. Still the last two spots seem wide open, so it's still got a good shot to make it, imo.

7. Booksmart - One of the success stories of the year so far at least critically. If Olivia Wilde had also co-wrote it or wrote it by herself, I think that could be one way to honor her directing without actually nominating her for directing, but the writers are from television, and I don't think really known. I could see it being somewhat like Eighth Grade last year though and being nominated a lot at regional and non-televised awards except the Indies, and maybe even WGA depending on who gets disqualified this year (I believe Tarantino is still not a member there), not winning though like Eighth Grade did there.

8. Us - I feel that there will discussion about this making it into the final 5 once we're in the heart of awards season with good arguments as to why it could make it in (Jordan Peele is a former winner in this category, Universal can promote two or three films especially if Cats bombs[/i], fairly successful), but I feel in the end it misses out because it just wasn't the juggernaut that Get Out was.

9. Dolemite Is My Name - Not sure that Netflix will be able to promote so many films this year, but maybe they can max out on nominations for The Irishman and Marriage Story, and pick up a category here or there for there other films like Meryl Streep is a given for The Laundromat whichever category she's in or Jonathan Pryce and/or Anthony Hopkins for The Two Popes. So maybe this film for actor and screenplay?

10. Bad Education - I don't know anything about the writer's other work, but I feel like Bad Education could be something that gets picked up at the fall festivals and becomes a major player like I, Tonya or something like that. I'm not sure what studio could pick it up though since most of them already have a #1 push and a strategy in play. Maybe Lionsgate because I don't think Knives Out is going to be an awards play at all, and Fair and Balanced probably likely do much worse than Vice. Or maybe Amazon if they can finally get it together this year, but that seems unlikely.

- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Marriage Story
- The Farewell
- The Report
- Parasite