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Post by bob-coppola on Sept 21, 2019 20:26:06 GMT
My God, this category is a dire this year *proceeds to name five performances that are going to be amazing or have already been confirmed as amazing I don't know, man... I think it's weird that it's post-TIFF and I can't group 10 traditional contenders in a category that has been quite buzzy the past few years. It doesn't help that out of these few I struggled to recall, I can only see two as winners. Think of the 2017 race, when up until very late in the game, all McDormand, Ronan, Robbie, Hawkins and Streep semeed like very convincing winners.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 30, 2019 18:29:09 GMT
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story Renée Zellweger, Judy Awkwafina, The Farewell Charlize Theron, Bombshell Alfre Woodard, Clemency
Alt. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2019 22:47:22 GMT
This seems like the kind of year where a strong foreign language performance could be nominated... I guess Awkwafina sort of qualifies?
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 1, 2019 0:22:19 GMT
This seems like the kind of year where a strong foreign language performance could be nominated... I guess Awkwafina sort of qualifies? Yeah this is a really weak year, but unfortunately aside from Awkwafina, who I think speaks more English than Chinese in The Farewell, I don't think any foreign language performances were big enough to gain any traction. It's also unfortunate that no newcomer emerged from the festivals because I think that this year was like a Julianne Moore year where someone with the right narrative and baity enough film could have entered the season and went on to win. I'm crossing my fingers for Ronan, or that Marriage Story can pull a Network/A Streetcar Named Desire, but I guess there's always at least one acting winner that makes me mad so maybe Best Actress is it this year. At least last year, there was only one even though I would have went with Grant over Ali, but I thought Ali did good work too. This year it could be anywhere from zero to all four categories, but likely at most three because I don't think Dern will lose and I'm good with either Pitt or Pacino winning Supporting Actor.
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Post by PromNightCarrie on Oct 6, 2019 21:22:53 GMT
I'm a big fan of Saoirse Ronan but would the Academy give her an Oscar for a role that has been adapted so many times? I just don't see it. I think Johansson has the most working in her favor and those Woody Allen comments won't hurt her one bit. Social media isn't voting.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 8, 2019 16:33:08 GMT
There's an uptick in buzz on Jodie-Turner Smith for Queen & Slim because it seems Sasha Stone and Jeffrey Wells really liked it. I was worried because it feels like the film has been completed yet Universal only is taking it to AFI, and I think that there could be a lot of controversy from certain demographics about the film if it does get more attention. Maybe Turner-Smith could sneak in though. lol, I wish that she more known because assuming most award voters end up agreeing with Stone in some way because maybe it would solve the Zellweger vs. Johansson dilemma for me.
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 14, 2019 4:52:39 GMT
Awkwafina Johansson Ronan Theron Zellweger
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Oct 14, 2019 11:40:40 GMT
Awkwafina Johansson Ronan Theron Zellweger Wouldn't surprise me at all if this was the final line up.
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Post by JangoB on Oct 14, 2019 12:56:03 GMT
Awkwafina Johansson Ronan Theron Zellweger Yeah, I guess that's where the situation really is at the moment. I think Erivo's still a very big threat here with the kind of role she plays and with her campaigning (which will clearly be intense). But I guess her movie is just too weak. The five you mentioned seem to make the most sense.
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Oct 14, 2019 13:51:33 GMT
I honestly wasn't expecting Queen & Slim to do much of anything, so that's an interesting surprise. Makes me wonder if anyone praising has seen Thomasine & Bushrod because it seems like the same film.
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Post by Allenism on Oct 14, 2019 14:55:54 GMT
Zellweger Johansson Theron Awkwafina Erivo
Alt: Ronan
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Oct 14, 2019 15:14:24 GMT
Awkwafina still really feels like an outlier. I liked her and I liked The Farewell, but I didn't see anything nom worthy and I'm not that confident she could break through.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 14, 2019 17:45:12 GMT
Awkwafina Johansson Ronan Theron Zellweger Yeah, I guess that's where the situation really is at the moment. I think Erivo's still a very big threat here with the kind of role she plays and with her campaigning (which will clearly be intense). But I guess her movie is just too weak. The five you mentioned seem to make the most sense. We do seem to have consensus 5 right now. Maybe they all end up making it in, but I could see AMPAS throwing at least one curveball into the mix because of the voting system. I mean I could see Johansson, Theron, and Zellweger having enough #1 votes to make it in, but Awkwafina could possibly be vulnerable if A24 doesn't do much like they did last year and because if more late contenders are successful, I don't know if The Farewell still makes it into Best Picture which could also hurt Awkwafina. I would think Ronan is safe because it's a role that is right in her wheelhouse, and I can't see Gerwig messing Little Women up that badly, but maybe voters will feel "been there, done that" with Little Women, or maybe it will turn out to be a mess or something. Not likely, but I'll still have some doubts about it until more people actually get to see it and at least tweet freely about it without it being like "I heard this...". I honestly wasn't expecting Queen & Slim to do much of anything, so that's an interesting surprise. Makes me wonder if anyone praising has seen Thomasine & Bushrod because it seems like the same film. It reminded me a lot of True Romance except with a message when I saw the first trailer. I had wrote it off, but maybe Turner-Smith can surprise. I'm feeling doubtful about this now because I feel like there's maybe only one spot open now, and Erivo is at least more known in the industry than Turner-Smith, and has a baitier role. Awkwafina still really feels like an outlier. I liked her and I liked The Farewell, but I didn't see anything nom worthy and I'm not that confident she could break through. I thought she was fine, but she only had that one Oscar scene which I thought she was so-so in. I think it depends a lot on how successful The Farewell is going to be outside Best Original Screenplay. I loved the film, so I can see it getting into Best Picture based on the voting system, and that love carrying over to Actress and Supporting Actress. On the other hand, I could also see a scenario where it just gets a screenplay nomination. She is a rising star right now, but if the final spot comes between say her and Erivo, then that won't really help her because Erivo is also a rising star. Also Erivo's performance is going to be a lot more "showier" than Awkwafina who only has one big moment. Plus, unfortunately AMPAS's history with recognizing Asian or Asian-American women is even worse than it's history recognizing black women. I'll still stick with Awkwafina though for now.
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vinnyt
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Post by vinnyt on Oct 15, 2019 15:04:19 GMT
Do we know official placements on Bombshell now that it debuted? I'm assuming Theron is lead and Kidman is supporting.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 15, 2019 17:59:39 GMT
Do we know official placements on Bombshell now that it debuted? I'm assuming Theron is lead and Kidman is supporting. Yes, here's Lionsgate's official FYI page for it. Also here's a link to all the studios FYI pages. Some studios still haven't put up which categories that they're campaigning for, for which movies just screenings, which seems weird to me along with the lack of screeners so far because it's already the middle of October, and even in regular years it seems like studios have done better at preparing for awards season.
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