Who would have won Lead Actress had Viola gone Lead?

Viola. She'd win BFCA and SAG for sure. She could have lost the Globe to Huppert and the BAFTA to Stone, but would almost certainly have won the Oscar.

Stone. It's very rarely a good idea to bet against the young, hot ingenue at best actress and the "overdue buzz" for Davis wouldn't exist in the way it did because she wouldn't win any or nearly any critic prizes. I'd say she would end the race in 3rd place at most.

Yes, if La La Land had steamrolled as it once was expected to, I could see Stone being caught up in it. As Flasuss points out she was the "it" girl, so she would have also had that going for her. 

However, since La La Land was a weakened frontrunner, and Stone didn't win anything major until the televised awards started due to Huppert winning the big prizes and Portman winning everything else that Huppert didn't win, I don't think she could have beat Davis's overdue narrative. Plus, a year after #Oscarssowhite, I think that would have also been a factor Davis's favor.

 

Davis.
The Academy wouldn't have had the balls to deny the most buzzed African-American actor without an Oscar atm for a baity as hell role after the backlash year. I'll say it again, Stone's televised sweep is the result of her rivals' weaknesses more than her undeniable situation. For every Witherspoon and Lawrence you have babes like Hathaway and Williams not being able to overcome some overdue narrative(Winslet, Streep in that order)

Though had this been the scenario all along Denzel either wouldn't have won SAG, or even if he did I still would have comfortably predicted Affleck because a movie like Fences winning two lead Oscars would have been too much.

Well, yeah. She's clearly beloved by her peers, she had come this close the last time she'd been nominated, and she's probably the most prominent and sought-after black leading lady in Hollywood. All of that creates some overdue sentiment, regardless of how few nominations she's had. Maybe not a Julianne Moore or Leonardo DiCaprio-type overdue narrative, but still. Plus, Rose Maxson is a massively awards-friendly part that had already netted her a Tony. She was winning this year no matter what.

Critics awards don't matter much in her case, and I'm sure she could've picked up a couple. Huppert and Portman both had more critics mentions than Stone and we all know how that turned out. Someone like Ali needs a successful critics run (not very well known, restrained performance, somewhat challenging film), but not Davis. Fences didn't need that extra exposure.

It might've been a different story had Portman been more of a threat and had Stone's film swept like it was once expected to, but that's not what happened. Davis would've won in either category.

Gosh, I think it would have been close.

I feel like Stone barely won, as it is. LLL really underperformed down the home stretch and Huppert was really picking up momentum.

Having said that, since there was a lot of support for Huppert and ther'd likely be a lot of support for Davis, Stone might have rised above both (split votes) as the hot young ingenue in the BP fave anyway.

-Critics awards still would've gone to Huppert for the most part.
-BFCA would have gone to Viola; but we see how ineffective/incorrect they were this year.
-SAG would have likely gone to Viola.  Stone would've been close.
-Globes. That's a toughie. They hadn't loved Viola up until recently and they might've gone for Huppert still because they loved Elle and not Fences.
-BAFTA, probably Stone, as was mentioned in a earlier post.

That's Viola/Stone/Huppert splitting stuff. No clear frontrunner. And plenty of AMPAS voters knew they'd be voting Denzel, Ali, Harris, etc. anyway. Would Viola really have benefitted from #OscarsSoWhite, additional to her powerhouse performance?

I want to lean in and say yes tha she'd win Lead, but it would be verrrry close between her & Stone ultimately.

OT but love your avatar ! So cute 

Well the other two times Davis was nominated she was runner-up arguably for 2008 without Winslet in the line-up. She also had oscarsowhite, overdue and Tony award winning role narrative, not to mention Davis is also a lot more popular today because of her big TV show.

I maintain that Viola made a mistake. Early buzz for Portman scared her. I believe if she campaigned for the lead category that she would have won. You can say an Oscar is an Oscar no matter the category, but with her, I believe she would rather be a best actress Oscar winner over a supporting actress one.