I think La La Land fever will be too hard to overcome here. It doesn't seem to have the "not really a screenplay based film" stigma that other Oscar juggernauts have gotten in the past.
It's interesting. La La Land will tip the favor in a certain trend if it wins screenplay. The last two movies to achieve the same amount of nominations was All About Eve and Titanic, with the former winning its screenplay category and Titanic being shut out all together. I guess we'll see what those 14 nominations really mean, or maybe Titanic already proved it can be weak in some areas.
One would hope its MBTS, while LLL might be the better film overall, the screenplay is nothing to marvel at and since Casey is likely losing, I can't see MBTS going home empty handed especially with the massive campaign AMAZON has mounted.
I could very much see it getting only screenplay, with an affleck getting, I have a hard time seeing them letting it go home empty-handed. But then I guess both Manchester and Moonlight are kind of in the same situation so maybe since Moonlight is getting something for sure, theyll be ok with giving more awards to LLL in favour of snubbing manchester all together.
though seriously, no one takes the BFCA that seriously anymore.
Agreed, but it doesn't change the fact that Chazelle won both televised awards for Screenplay so far. Lonergan racked up several critics wins, but when it comes to the big leagues, it's a much tighter race. (And if the BFCA doesn't count, he has zero industry wins so far as opposed to Chazelle's one). If La La Land pulls off a WGA victory over Manchester, then it's gonna be pretty hard to argue against it for the Oscar.
I'm sorry okay! I've been lusting after white *beep* for so long, I lost perspective
I voted for Manchester by the Sea, but I think this could be the closest race.
Another good question, what's third? Hell or High Water by virtue of being a BP nominee, or The Lobster because it feels more in line with other winners in the category (I'm thinking of Her specifically, but I haven't seen it, it just feels similar). And The Lobster has always seemed like a lock in the category. I didn't find it surprising when The Lobster got in, but Captain Fantastic didn't, and I wouldn't have been all that surprised if HoHW missed.