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Post by napierslogs on Mar 2, 2017 2:01:47 GMT
I predicted it would lose Costume Design - but I thought Jackie would win, either way that didn't surprise. And then it won Production Design when I thought it might lose, so no gain/loss there. I also predicted it would lose Sound Editing to Arrival, then the Sound Mixing was a bit of a head scratcher, but since war movies always win at least one sound category, I didn't think too much of it.
The Editing loss was shocking, but because it lost to Hacksaw Ridge and there's no way Hacksaw Ridge was winning BP, I still didn't change my mind. But that was definitely the one award which suggested we were in for a weird night. If Moonlight had won Editing or Cinematography, then I might have been able to predict the upset. But not with Hacksaw Ridge being the benefactor.
I also started to think that Manchester by the Sea had moved above Moonlight since it was able to win both of its awards where it wasn't the clear favourite, but obviously that wasn't the case.
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Post by stephen on Mar 2, 2017 2:03:10 GMT
When Jordan Horowitz held up the card, I had a feeling.
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Post by Sharbs on Mar 2, 2017 2:11:08 GMT
When Jordan Horowitz held up the card, I had a feeling.
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Post by countjohn on Mar 2, 2017 2:44:24 GMT
The losses in editing and screenplay made me a little suspicious, but then when it won director I was sure again. I was thinking if there was a split it would be Jenkins for best director and LLL for BP, not the other way around.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2017 2:53:47 GMT
When it lost sound mixing
Costume and Sound Editing werent certain, but a musical losing mixing is unheard of-- thats when i knew screenplay was in jeopardy
When it lost editing, it was apparent the movie was in danger
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Mar 2, 2017 3:17:16 GMT
In hindsight there were subtle signs along the way that LLL may not be this juggernaut that it was being hyped too be.
Starting with it's snub at SAG, when films with similar cast size have been nominated in the past. And even though it won Best Pic at BAFTA, it did not sweep as predicted. Then there was Moonlight pulling an upset at WGA.
But when it lost both Editing and Screenplay, something was off. Considering LLL only won 6 out of 14 nods, says it likely wasn't as beloved across the Academy - compared to films that had swept.
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Post by DeepArcher on Mar 2, 2017 3:49:54 GMT
When every article I read in the weeks leading up to the Oscars was titled, "Why Moonlight Should Win Best Picture Over La La Land."
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Post by Deleted on Mar 2, 2017 5:52:44 GMT
When Hacksaw had more Oscars than LLL and Suicide Squad and LLL had equal no of Oscars.
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Post by harlequinade on Mar 2, 2017 11:24:37 GMT
When every article I read in the weeks leading up to the Oscars was titled, "Why Moonlight Should Win Best Picture Over La La Land." Same, I saw so many articles saying what a bad message the Academy will send if LLL wins with Moonlight
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Mar 2, 2017 12:16:45 GMT
When I first saw it.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Mar 2, 2017 16:59:56 GMT
When they announced that they had the wrong envelop.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Mar 2, 2017 17:37:51 GMT
When they announced that they had the wrong envelop. Yeah, this has to be the answer. Losing Editing and Sound Mixing wasn't good, but all that told me was that it wasn't going to be quite the sweeper we assumed it would (especially because the film that upset in both those categories wasn't even in the top 3). Then La La Land won everything else it was expected to (two techs, two music categories, then Director and Actress), while Moonlight only won the two awards it was widely predicted to win anyway. It's easy to say that La La Land's BP win was in jeopardy in hindsight, but I don't believe anyone seriously expected that upset to happen before it did.
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forksforest
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Post by forksforest on Mar 2, 2017 23:58:57 GMT
It honestly took them holding up that envelope to convince me. I was ready to call it a night after Stone won her Oscar. I didn't even believe it when they were getting fidgety on stage. It felt like Election Night, where there was just no possible alternative to La La Land/Clinton winning...and then the impossible happened.
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Post by taranofprydain on Mar 3, 2017 0:04:38 GMT
I kind of started getting concerned for it after Costumes and Sound.
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wonky
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Post by wonky on Mar 3, 2017 0:17:48 GMT
I was surprised when it lost a bunch of its techs as I expected like everyone else that it had a good chance of 10-12 wins. It was interesting to see its juggernaut status slowly slip away, I admit I was particularly surprised by the Sound Mixing and Film Editing losses. I guess the latter paired with the less shocking Original Screenplay loss should have been red flags in hindsight, but 7 felt like a perfectly solid and predictable haul for a flashy BP winner so it really didn't enter my mind at all that it could lose until the moment. Even then I still didn't really believe it and was left half-wondering after the ceremony if it would turn out Moonlight's win was the mistake after all
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2017 0:40:48 GMT
Not until the very end.
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Post by cornnetto on Mar 3, 2017 0:58:23 GMT
In a clear way in my mind when it lost Editing, none of the lost were big surprise and was still the most probably winner in my mind at that point, but I thought at that moment that Mooonlight or Manchester could win.
In a lesser way the week's before with the honest ballot and lot of talk/think piece against the movie, it was the frontrunner in such a clear way for an abnormal amount of time (since October last year or so and a confirmed way when Silence didn't play that well with critics), not easy to keep the lead that long.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 16, 2017 1:40:03 GMT
Well, I'll tell you what was going through my mind when the butthurt producer held up the card...
"HA! All you cynic FUCKS thought 'La La Land' was going to sweep as you rolled your fucking eyes! BUT NOPE! I WAS RIGHT YOU FUCCCKS!"
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Post by Sharbs on May 16, 2017 1:51:55 GMT
Well, I'll tell you what was going through my mind when the butthurt producer held up the card... "HA! All you cynic FUCKS thought 'La La Land' was going to sweep as you rolled your fucking eyes! BUT NOPE! I WAS RIGHT YOU FUCCCKS!" Super
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Post by Kirk-Picard on May 16, 2017 10:26:40 GMT
On Oscar night when it didn't sweep as expected
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on May 16, 2017 10:28:00 GMT
When it didn't win.
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