Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2019 9:35:51 GMT
Here's how I would rank the Best Picture nominees, in terms of most likely to win.
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Black Panther
5. The Favourite
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Vice
8. A Star is Born
The first two are pretty even in my book. Green Book won the PGA and Globe. Roma won the DGA and Critics Choice. Both films are missing the SAGE nomination and a pivotal major Oscar nomination -- Directing for Green Book, Editing for Roma. At the moment, I am leaning toward Roma because DGA has a better track record of predicting the Best Picture winner than the PGA.
Bohemian Rhapsody has the Globe, and wins at SAG (actor) and the EDDIE (drama). Black Panther has the SAGE victory and ADG win. BR gets the lead over BP because it has at least an editing nomination and a shot at winning Actor. BP has no major Oscar nominations period, apart from picture.
Next up is The Favourite. This one has the potential to rise within the next week. It won the EDDIE and the ADG. The Oscars nominated it for directing, writing, and editing, and the tied for the most nominations. As I have pointed out before, 80% of all Best Picture winners were nominated for director, writing, and editing. My issue here is that it needs to win a Big Boy prize. Colman's win at the Globes is its only relevant victory. The BAFTAs on the 10th can change all that, and make it a three-horse race.
BKKK gets 6th place for me. Spike Lee's film gets invited to all the right dance parties, but never gets to dance. At the BAFTAs and/or WGA, BKKK has a shot at finally dancing.
For the final two spots, I have Vice and A Star is Born. Both films have ZERO Guild wins, especially in the major categories. They took home ZERO major Globes or Critics Choice. Vice gets the slight lead because it's competitive in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress race.
Overall, I see it as Roma vs. Green Book. Team Roma can point out they have the most nominations (tied actually), won the Critics Choice, and last night, took home the most accurate Best Picture predictor, the DGA award. Team Green Book can point out the film's uplifting and crowd-pleasing tone (Think Driving Miss Daisy), the PGA win, and fact it's in English and not published by Netflix. For me, the big decider will probably be the WGA.
1. Roma
2. Green Book
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. Black Panther
5. The Favourite
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Vice
8. A Star is Born
The first two are pretty even in my book. Green Book won the PGA and Globe. Roma won the DGA and Critics Choice. Both films are missing the SAGE nomination and a pivotal major Oscar nomination -- Directing for Green Book, Editing for Roma. At the moment, I am leaning toward Roma because DGA has a better track record of predicting the Best Picture winner than the PGA.
Bohemian Rhapsody has the Globe, and wins at SAG (actor) and the EDDIE (drama). Black Panther has the SAGE victory and ADG win. BR gets the lead over BP because it has at least an editing nomination and a shot at winning Actor. BP has no major Oscar nominations period, apart from picture.
Next up is The Favourite. This one has the potential to rise within the next week. It won the EDDIE and the ADG. The Oscars nominated it for directing, writing, and editing, and the tied for the most nominations. As I have pointed out before, 80% of all Best Picture winners were nominated for director, writing, and editing. My issue here is that it needs to win a Big Boy prize. Colman's win at the Globes is its only relevant victory. The BAFTAs on the 10th can change all that, and make it a three-horse race.
BKKK gets 6th place for me. Spike Lee's film gets invited to all the right dance parties, but never gets to dance. At the BAFTAs and/or WGA, BKKK has a shot at finally dancing.
For the final two spots, I have Vice and A Star is Born. Both films have ZERO Guild wins, especially in the major categories. They took home ZERO major Globes or Critics Choice. Vice gets the slight lead because it's competitive in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress race.
Overall, I see it as Roma vs. Green Book. Team Roma can point out they have the most nominations (tied actually), won the Critics Choice, and last night, took home the most accurate Best Picture predictor, the DGA award. Team Green Book can point out the film's uplifting and crowd-pleasing tone (Think Driving Miss Daisy), the PGA win, and fact it's in English and not published by Netflix. For me, the big decider will probably be the WGA.
