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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 23, 2019 1:58:55 GMT
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Post by Allenism on Jan 23, 2019 14:34:08 GMT
Remember when people were doubting that Glenn would even be nominated?
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Post by akittystang on Jan 23, 2019 14:37:59 GMT
Glenn has this in the bag as long as she wins SAG.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 23, 2019 14:48:28 GMT
Right now I say Glenn Close, but I wouldn't count out Colman just yet...although on Monday I might.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 23, 2019 14:55:24 GMT
Will win: Close Should win: Gaga Should have been a contender: Collette
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Post by akittystang on Jan 23, 2019 15:04:13 GMT
Will win: Close Should win: Gaga Should have been a contender: Collette
At least she's winning song.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 23, 2019 15:07:41 GMT
I think screenplay affects this - weirdly. The Favourite is not going home with 0 big prizes and if it doesn't get screenplay (Blackkklansman) Coleman has a better shot I'd say. Gaga is out imo - I actually think Cooper has a better spoiler spot than her (ie don't wanna give Bale 2 statues, don't want to reward Malek, give it to the 4 time guy) - not predicting him but that's conceivable I guess.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 23, 2019 15:17:04 GMT
It's finally Glenn's time.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 23, 2019 15:54:22 GMT
Irons, Close and the diminutive Italian.......that's a lot of hardware in the Tripe Crown Club........
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 23, 2019 18:37:23 GMT
I think screenplay affects this - weirdly. The Favourite is not going home with 0 big prizes and if it doesn't get screenplay (Blackkklansman) Coleman has a better shot I'd say. Gaga is out imo - I actually think Cooper has a better spoiler spot than her (ie don't wanna give Bale 2 statues, don't want to reward Malek, give it to the 4 time guy) - not predicting him but that's conceivable I guess. Why does The Favourite need to win a big prize? American Hustle, Gangs of New York went home with 0 Oscars.
The Favourite likely wins screenplay anyway. Blackkklansman is Adapted.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 23, 2019 18:51:45 GMT
I think screenplay affects this - weirdly. The Favourite is not going home with 0 big prizes and if it doesn't get screenplay (Blackkklansman) Coleman has a better shot I'd say. Gaga is out imo - I actually think Cooper has a better spoiler spot than her (ie don't wanna give Bale 2 statues, don't want to reward Malek, give it to the 4 time guy) - not predicting him but that's conceivable I guess. Why does The Favourite need to win a big prize? American Hustle, Gangs of New York went home with 0 Oscars.
The Favourite likely wins screenplay anyway. Blackkklansman is Adapted.
Oh jeez I can't believe I did that, lol I don't think The Favourite goes home empty handed, I just don't see it, it could happen but - it's just better than GONY and AH for one thing, it's more genuinely liked it seems too - in a limited way but genuinely with enthusiastic support - but if say something out nabs screenplay I do think it helps Coleman (but Screenplay should win yes, I'd agree)
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Post by Sharbs on Jan 23, 2019 19:14:52 GMT
I think screenplay affects this - weirdly. The Favourite is not going home with 0 big prizes and if it doesn't get screenplay (Blackkklansman) Coleman has a better shot I'd say. Gaga is out imo - I actually think Cooper has a better spoiler spot than her (ie don't wanna give Bale 2 statues, don't want to reward Malek, give it to the 4 time guy) - not predicting him but that's conceivable I guess. how does The Favourite not getting screenplay at all correlate with COLMAN winning or not? EDIT: Just saw that Costigan already addressed this, but still this is a pretty silly take
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 23, 2019 19:17:35 GMT
I think screenplay affects this - weirdly. The Favourite is not going home with 0 big prizes and if it doesn't get screenplay (Blackkklansman) Coleman has a better shot I'd say. Gaga is out imo - I actually think Cooper has a better spoiler spot than her (ie don't wanna give Bale 2 statues, don't want to reward Malek, give it to the 4 time guy) - not predicting him but that's conceivable I guess. how does The Favourite not getting screenplay at all correlate with COLMAN winning or not? It's winning something major and by major I mean Screenplay or Actress - not both and not neither imo.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Jan 23, 2019 20:30:31 GMT
Close.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 23, 2019 22:11:54 GMT
They'll go gaga for Close.
Case Closed.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 23, 2019 22:22:19 GMT
I think screenplay affects this - weirdly. The Favourite is not going home with 0 big prizes and if it doesn't get screenplay (Blackkklansman) Coleman has a better shot I'd say. Gaga is out imo - I actually think Cooper has a better spoiler spot than her (ie don't wanna give Bale 2 statues, don't want to reward Malek, give it to the 4 time guy) - not predicting him but that's conceivable I guess. Why does The Favourite need to win a big prize? American Hustle, Gangs of New York went home with 0 Oscars.
The Favourite likely wins screenplay anyway. Blackkklansman is Adapted.
Yes, I've learned from personal experience with those plus True Grit to finally let go the idea that a film with a lot of nominations has to win something. Everyone kept predicting Her for Original Screenplay, and I was like, "nope, I'm sticking to my guns. No way American Hustle goes home empty-handed." Or with True Grit, until SAG, I thought Steinfeld could be where they would award it, but she probably was third at best. Or with Gangs of New York, I way overestimated that, but that was one of my first years as a prognosticator in my defense. I thought that there was more love for it in the industry because I thought a lot of nominations meant that they really loved it, and that Scorsese would finally win Best Picture and Director.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jan 23, 2019 22:44:35 GMT
It'll be close, but Colman.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 24, 2019 3:37:50 GMT
Holding out hope for Colman who's almost certain to win at BAFTA. Not only does she absolutely deserve it but she also needs the Oscar a helluva lot more than Close, who likely has at least one or two nominations left. Let Close win another year, Colman's future is far less secure.
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Post by jasonjoliepitt on Jan 24, 2019 15:14:08 GMT
Please let it be Colman. Close doesn't deserve it.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 24, 2019 15:43:58 GMT
One of the things that people may be misplaying here is performer vs. role - I've already said Close is more likely if The Favourite wins something else big which is "likely" (to me) (and was called "silly", grrrrrrrr!) - GONY, AH, True Grit were whole different things, films made by people who had already been at the big show - The Favourite is not drawing a goose egg on Oscar Night ..........but Close depends on how you see her in the big picture too: Is she inevitable because she's a legend or is she NOT a legend (in film?) and just an older actress in a so-so film? Like I said in the "Best Actor/Actress Across All 3 Mediums" - which is like my personal thread, the insights in that thread are brilliant! - an Oscar puts her not just in the TC club, it makes her major within in, especially for Americans, she'd have the most wins of anyone in that club period, she is to me the hardest working American major actress ever in this way. That, if you believe in it, carries a lot of weight. When you change the way you look at it, things change a lot - how do you see Close, a big deal in film history or not? A big deal as an actress period or not? The way you see that says a lot about how you see this race I'd say.....
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 27, 2019 14:10:12 GMT
One of the things that people may be misplaying here is performer vs. role Yet that's exactly what the Academy does from time to time. Tends to nominate performers (or filmakers) again and again until they finally win the Oscar. (Di Caprio, Pacino, Scorsese etc.) In my opinion, these three guys I mentioned should have won many years earlier but the year they finally did, they arguably didn't deserve to. I would like Coleman to win this year (and voted for her) but I guess they will prefer Close. After all, she is a great actress and this is her seventh nomination. Maybe she doesn't deserve it according to this year's performances but she deserves it for her whole career up to now. Maybe that's her final opportunity. And that's the way the Academy often acts.
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Post by evilbliss on Jan 27, 2019 14:30:05 GMT
What do you mean you 'voted for her'?
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seronie
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Post by seronie on Jan 27, 2019 16:07:05 GMT
At the top, lad
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 27, 2019 16:37:55 GMT
What do you mean you 'voted for her'?
The poll, I mean.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 27, 2019 19:21:41 GMT
One of the things that people may be misplaying here is performer vs. role After all, she is a great actress and this is her seventh nomination. Maybe she doesn't deserve it according to this year's performances but she deserves it for her whole career up to now. Maybe that's her final opportunity. And that's the way the Academy often acts. I think the Academy might be thinking along these lines but it's total bullshit. An actress as prestigious as Close has at least one or two nominations left in the bag. Her performance in the forgettable and total non-starter The Wife is even proof that she can get nominated for movies nobody watched or cared for (come to think of it, Albert Nobbs wasn't so popular either). This isn't her last chance, and if she didn't win this year it just means she'd be that much more likely to win next time. This should be Colman's time damnit.
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