Post by Brother Fease on Jan 20, 2019 11:09:50 GMT
Like I said before, there's no real controversy around Green Book. It's media noise. What the industry thinks of the film only matters. But setting that aside, the PGA win significantly increase GB's Oscar chances.
Here's some stats for you.
20/30 PGA winners have won Best Picture. That's 67% accuracy or 69% if you don't count Gravity. The misses were La La Land, The Big Short, Gravity (12 Years won it), Little Miss Sunshine, Brokeback Mountain, The Aviator, Moulin Rouge, Saving Private Ryan, Apollo 13, and Crying Game.
26/30 times, the PGA winner has won the DGA, WGA or both. 12 Years (wasn't eligible for the WGA), The Aviator, Moulin Rouge, and Gladiator were the exceptions.
What does this mean?
For me, it first and foremost puts GB as the favorite to win WGA for Best Original Screenplay. I don't see it winning the DGA - No Best Director BAFTA nomination.
What puts the film at a great advantage is the fact we're living in divided times politically. GB communicates the themes of unity and putting our differences aside and work on what we do agree with. Farrelly hit that message home at the Globes. On top of that, the film showed it can win a preferential ballot and seems to be a film people generally come out moved emotionally.
With that said, it still comes into this Oscar race with a major handicap - no SAGE nomination. Braveheart and Water were able to buck that trend, mainly thanks to the other contenders having the same kind of problems as well.
If Green Book doesn't score directing, writing, and editing nominations at the Oscars, it will have another handicap on its side.
So anyway, congratulations to Green Book, you have officially become a probable Best Picture winner.
Here's some stats for you.
20/30 PGA winners have won Best Picture. That's 67% accuracy or 69% if you don't count Gravity. The misses were La La Land, The Big Short, Gravity (12 Years won it), Little Miss Sunshine, Brokeback Mountain, The Aviator, Moulin Rouge, Saving Private Ryan, Apollo 13, and Crying Game.
26/30 times, the PGA winner has won the DGA, WGA or both. 12 Years (wasn't eligible for the WGA), The Aviator, Moulin Rouge, and Gladiator were the exceptions.
What does this mean?
For me, it first and foremost puts GB as the favorite to win WGA for Best Original Screenplay. I don't see it winning the DGA - No Best Director BAFTA nomination.
What puts the film at a great advantage is the fact we're living in divided times politically. GB communicates the themes of unity and putting our differences aside and work on what we do agree with. Farrelly hit that message home at the Globes. On top of that, the film showed it can win a preferential ballot and seems to be a film people generally come out moved emotionally.
With that said, it still comes into this Oscar race with a major handicap - no SAGE nomination. Braveheart and Water were able to buck that trend, mainly thanks to the other contenders having the same kind of problems as well.
If Green Book doesn't score directing, writing, and editing nominations at the Oscars, it will have another handicap on its side.
So anyway, congratulations to Green Book, you have officially become a probable Best Picture winner.
