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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 14, 2019 11:36:04 GMT
1. A Star is Born 2. BlacKkKlansman 3. Roma 4. Green Book 5. Vice 6. The Favourite 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 8. If Beale Street Could Talk 9. Black Panther 10. A Quiet Place Wildcards ~ Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians, Cold War, Eighth Grade, First Man, and First Reformed
Without getting into too much detail, I like ASIB and BKKK the best because it swept the big 3 BAFTA nominations and big 4 Guild nominations. When the people who actually vote on the Oscars have wide love for your film, makes you instantly rise to the top.
Roma, GB, and Vice scored 3/4 major guild nominations, but all missed out on the SAGE. Roma moves into the 3rd spot because it won the Globe for Best Director and the Critics Choice for Best Picture and Director. GB because it won 3 Golden Globes - Picture, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay - and nabbed Film and Original Screenplay nominations at the BAFTA awards. Vice for Christian Bale.
For TF, I like how it performed at the BAFTA nominations and Colman's buzz.
BR for Malek's performance and the Golden Globe Best Drama win.
IBCT vastly under-performed at the Guild awards and BAFTA nominations, but the film winning Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay last night and the Globe win for Hall, puts it in the eighth spot. It has also performed quite well among the critics circle awards.
As for Black Panther, I loved the film guys, but we cannot escape a reality -- The Academy hates superhero films. BP got zero major BAFTA nominations. That's a bad sign. None of the major awards ceremonies nominated it for Best Director. It's in a tight race for the last adapted screenplay spot with DEATH OF STALIN and FIRST MAN.
And finally, we have A QUIET PLACE. The film scored PGA and WGA nominations.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 14, 2019 17:33:49 GMT
Even though Black Panther performed poorly at the BAFTAs, it was expected. It was never going to nab a top 3 nomination over there, though snubbing it for costumes is straight up criminal. It did however managed to score 3/4 major guild awards and it's doing well at the technical guild awards. It's probably the favorite to win visual effects at this point and possibly production and costume design. And I think it will nab that final adapted screenplay spot simply because I'm sure the Academy would like to nominate Ryan Coogler in something.
1. Roma 2. A Star is Born 3. BlacKKKlansman 4. Green Book 5. The Favourite 6. Black Panther 7. Vice 8. Bohemian Rhapsody 9. If Beale Street Could Talk 10. First Man
I place The Favourite 5th because while it did well at the BAFTAs, it missed a lot a major guild awards. That SAG Ensemble snub hurts the film and Olivia Colman's chances. That's probably why she's no longer the favorite (ha!). Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody are below Black Panther simply because reviews. Beale Street is 9th because it hasn't done well at any guild awards and King was snubbed at the SAG and BAFTAs. First Man is 10th because it did well at the BAFTAs, and it may have resurrected the film.
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