I love how most years there are at least a few surprise nominees that sneak in. Everyone usually gets set on a solid 4-5 people and there's always a surprise pick that sneaks in somewhere. Watching the nominees get announced live is my Christmas morning
Best Actor (if Mortensen gets snubbed one of these two will happen):
1.
Hawke potentially but it'd be too painful to predict that and be wrong. Missing out on all the procurers doesn't spell his defeat but it certainly doesn't bode well. At best he's on the outside looking in while at worst, he's out of the conversation. Assuming he's out of the race I still think he'd be the first in line if there's a snubbing, but that's a big if.
2.
Dafoe is entirely possible. He's a well-respected actor with a long career behind him and several nominations. AMPAS throwing another his way would be a pleasant surprise but it wouldn't be shocking. And remember he earned his film a sole nomination last year too. Even though
The Florida Project had much more hype and was pegged for a few nominations most of the season, I think he could do it again.
What would be shocking is if Hedges or Gosling slips in.
Best Actress (presuming Blunt or McCarthy get snubbed):
1.
Viola Davis. I've been saying this for months; the Academy loves this woman, she's driving a well-liked McQueen vehicle and she's earned several nominations already, right down to the BAFTA. If someone is going to benefit from a surprise pick, it's going to be Davis. Count on it. Between Davis an adored and respected actress against an unknown first-timer from a black-and-white Mexican film, they're going to take the safe and obvious pick in a season where safe and obvious picks have dominated. Aparicio isn't happening. Cuaron is happening because he's well-known. Aparicio isn't, and she hasn't delivered all season despite Cuaron steamrolling his competition. If there's so much love for
Roma, then why is it primarily getting accolades for Cuaron's work on the film or for its technical achievements?
Furthermore, as Glenn Close's campaign has proven, voters don't have to care about the film to get you nominated. I haven't seen the film yet and maybe she's great in it but
The Wife is an awards non-starter without Close and nobody really cares about it. Yeah, she also got the the overdue narrative etc etc but the point is this (and this has been the case most years): being in a beloved film doesn't guarantee you a nomination and the opposite is also true. If Davis gets in for
Widows it would probably be the film's only nomination (although screenplay and editing are possible longshots), but that is rarely a deciding factor for acting nominations, especially in this category.
Widows has underperformed all season and will likely underperform at the Oscars if not get away completely empty-handed, but if it has a chance anywhere, it's for Davis. And i don't think she's even that much of a longshot.
2.
Elsie Fisher. This would initially seem to be a pretty out-of-field nomination given Fisher's age and the relative simplicity of her film. But she clearly has a lot of support and she has that Globe nomination to back her up.
Plus, people really took to Eighth Grade and it has an outside shot at a screenplay nod.
3.
Kidman, only because she's respected and has a long career behind her. It's certainly within the realm of possibility, and she probably has a better chance here than for
Boy Erased which is totally dead at this point. Still, I think Davis is ahead of her.
EDIT: I'll add that of course I think Aparicio is
possible (and she might even have a better shot than Fisher or Kidman on paper), I'm just convinced they're not going to go for it and I think people are really overestimating her chances. And I'll say the same for Colette but I think her chances are much much slimmer still.
Best Supporting Actor (thing is, there are six performances in the running so the question isn't who's getting in but who's going to get left out)
1.
Michael B. Jordan. At this point he would definitely count as a "surprise" nominee. He keeps coming up short and
Black Panther has lost a bit ground over the last couple weeks. It doesn't look good for him but I still think it's possible for how well-respected and popular the film is. I think this category is pretty much locked down unfortunately. I'm not expecting many surprises here.
now,
about Hoult.
saying Hoult is possible is as weak as saying anything is possible. Yeah, Hoult is possible but if he couldn't even score on his home turf where
The Favourite predictably swept I think he's comfortably out of the race. If AMPAS goes hard for
The Favourite and it overperforms and suddenly becomes the odds-on BP frontrunner I could see him slip in as a coatail nod...but as who's expense? Chalamet? Possibly since no one likes that movie--but still it's unlikely. Elliot? No. Driver? No. Ali? Definitely not. Grant? No. It's not in the cards for Hoult. All these five are solidly above him (not to mention Rockwell and Jordan) even if the Academy loves his film and it was the clear frontrunner (and I no longer think it is). Even if it's a good performance the record speak for itself. Tatiana Maslany was great last year and went virtually unrecognized. Jonah Hill was transcendent this year (
Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot) and will go ENTIRELY unrecognized. That's how it goes sometimes. Hoult is a total non-starter for whatever reason, even with a lot of support for his film.
Honestly the supporting actor race is the most boring one this year. Assuming at least Grant and Ali are locks (fuck it, Driver's a lock too), that leaves those last two spots open for Elliot, Chalamet, and Rockwell. Who gets in and who gets left out? I don't really care. It's hard to get that excited about any of those picks and we can be certain it will be two of those three (probably Elliot and Chalament or Elliot and Rockwell...either way you cut it, it's boring).
Best Supporting Actress1.
Blunt. Presuming she gets snubbed for
Mary Poppins I'd say she's first in line to get in for this category (behind Adams, King and the bitches). Her chances are maybe even better here. It wouldn't even be much of a surprise. What
would be a surprise is her getting a double nomination, but I find it more likely that she'll get in for
A Quiet Place (the surprise sleeper hit of the year) than for
Mary Poppins, where she seems to be missing support from the British bloc.
2.
Margot Robbie. I think Blunt is ahead of her since
A Quiet Place is so beloved while
Mary Queen of Scots has underwhelmed and been underperforming. Name recognition helps here, both for Robbie and the awards-friendly character she's playing (and the movie looks good for costume and possibly makeup nominations), but I'm not predicting a nomination for Robbie here. Her getting in would be a surprise not a shock.
3.
Thomasin McKenzie. Hey, I can dream.
4.
Linda Cardelini ff she gets in on a coattail nod. Now that would be a shock, with all but four of the contenders basically locked in at this point. She'd have to get in over Blunt and Foy (who are neck and neck for that 5th spot) and Robbie.
5.
Debikci, only if (and that's a huuuuuuge if) the Academy likes
Widows more than expected which I do think is in the realm of possibility.
I don't think Yeoh or Kidman have a chance. Most of these other contenders would be a surprise (some more than others) but I'd shit a brick if Yeoh or Kidman squeezed in. They're dead in the water.
