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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 10, 2019 16:15:14 GMT
The SAG might be enough for her to get in but she’s looking shaky at the moment. But who else is there?
Yalitza isn’t getting any precursor love but is in a movie that’s is doing great. Davis got in at BAFTA but her movie is pretty dead in the water. I honestly have no clue.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 10, 2019 16:37:32 GMT
I'm still betting my money on Toni Collette .
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LaraQ
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Post by LaraQ on Jan 10, 2019 16:46:01 GMT
Joanna Kulig.She truly deserves it.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 10, 2019 16:48:20 GMT
I'm still betting my money on Toni Collette . Good luck with that.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 10, 2019 16:53:17 GMT
The SAG might be enough for her to get in but she’s looking shaky at the moment. But who else is there? Yalitza isn’t getting any precursor love but is in a movie that’s is doing great. Davis got in at BAFTA but her movie is pretty dead in the water. I honestly have no clue. I have no idea. Aparicio makes some sense in their will be a lot of passion for Roma, and that can translate into voters putting down other aspects of a film first because they just vote for it everywhere. On the other hand, nominees like Aparicio who make it in without any precursor support are the big critics' winner and/or a respected veteran. I don't want to rule her out because the Academy does like doing those surprise nominations to be a bit different than all the other gazillion precursors now, but it is concerning to me that as much love as there has been for Roma everywhere else, she doesn't have many mentions even in the newcomer awards where Elsie Fisher has been doing better. Plus, I keep seeing the argument that maybe she'll show up somewhere. Like first it was NYFCC, then it changed to maybe she'll show up at LAFCA, and then it was maybe she'll show up at NSFC. Or with the televised awards, "the Globes have more spots," "SAG loves Netflix and they sent out fancy screeners," or "she can totally show up at BAFTA because McCarthy can miss." It just feels like she should have done better, if passion for the film was supposed to spill over onto her too. Blunt has had a pretty good year. Mary Poppins Returns wasn't the enormous hit that it was expected to be, but it's doing fine considering that Disney overestimated the nostalgia factor for the original. It also missed some guilds and she missed BAFTA when I expected that they would really love the film. Usually roles like hers don't get nominated, but she still got in at SAG despite that even over SAG favorite Viola Davis. I think it also works in Blunt's favor that the alternatives don't seem that strong. Davis hit BAFTA, but she hasn't shown up anywhere else this season, and Widows underperformed with awards so far and at the box office. Kidman and Pike only got the Globe nomination. Collette won a lot of critics' awards but not the top 3, and A24 has barely done any campaigning for her. Of course, Aparicio only got in at the Critics' Choice where they nominated 7 actresses.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 10, 2019 16:56:12 GMT
I'm still betting my money on Toni Collette . Good luck with that. Thank you
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Post by mrimpossible on Jan 10, 2019 17:09:08 GMT
Aparicio.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 10, 2019 17:24:58 GMT
I'm not expecting any acting nods for Roma and I still think Blunt looks good for a nomination. If by some absurd stroke of bad luck she doesn't get in, I'd still peg Davis for that 5th spot. At the end of the day the easiest choice would be to honor an Academy favorite in a critically revered film that's already picked up some love elsewhere. It'd be a no-brainer.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 10, 2019 17:39:08 GMT
It's still Aparicio.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 10, 2019 18:30:17 GMT
If Roma is on its way to a Best Picture win, my money is on Yalitza gets that 5th spot.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 10, 2019 18:50:37 GMT
No clue. Aparicio makes sense only of there's this enormous love for "Roma" which is entirely possible but the confidence with which some folks are predicting her is baffling to me as she couldn't manage to hit any important precursor apart from BFCA. Even the critics didn't really support her.
I suppose we might take a closer look at that Viola Davis nomination at the BAFTAs but "Widows" seems pretty dead overall. Collette is not making it imo - no big nominations plus the movie is not AMPAS-friendly at all. I think someone like Kidman can even pop up here randomly.
I guess I'll say Aparicio. But...even despite missing the BAFTA, snubbing Blunt here doesn't make much sense with her banner year. Those SAG noms suggest that there is support for her among the peers and I read that the "Mary Poppins Returns" team is doing a big Academy event for the movie which Sophia Loren (!) will host. That's playing it real.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 10, 2019 19:08:15 GMT
Screw precursors, I still think Yalitza is sneaking in. Obviously it's quite an uphill climb for her, foreign language performances are almost never nominated unless you're an acting legend like Huppert or Riva, and it's improbable enough for her as it is as an unknown. However it kinda feels like she's been everywhere campaigning recently, she's really broken-out as something of a celebrity since Roma's release, and it's certainly drawing a lot of attention to her -- as does the fact that Cuarón specifically attributed the film's success to her in both of his speeches at the Globes, which hardly would have gone ignored. She has a lot of momentum at the moment, and if the Academy is big on Roma as I think they will be, it should be enough to get here there.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 10, 2019 19:15:51 GMT
Of the contenders who have a shot, I think and hope for Yalitza Aparicio.
In my dream (but delusional) world, Toni Collette gets it.
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seronie
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Post by seronie on Jan 10, 2019 21:28:10 GMT
I really hope it's Kidman, and think she has a shot.
But really we are looking at IMO
Close Gaga Colman McCarthy Aparicio
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Post by sirjeremy on Jan 10, 2019 21:34:30 GMT
Kidman, but I don't think Blunt has anything to worry about.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 11, 2019 14:12:42 GMT
I think Kidman, Davis, Aparicio, Pike and Collette in that order.
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Post by quetee on Jan 11, 2019 14:43:07 GMT
Nobody else has stepped up so I'm going back to Davis.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Jan 12, 2019 3:43:59 GMT
I still think it will be Aparicio, but I am rooting for Collette.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 12, 2019 10:39:19 GMT
I predict Yalitza to get in. Wouldn't be the first time that an lead actor/actress of the major Oscar frontrunner gets in without any precursor. I dont think think she will win but I am sure the Academy will go extremely Gaga (no pun intented ) about Roma
Possibly all the way like this:
Best Picture Best Director Best Actress Best Screenplay Best Production design Best Editing Best Cinematography Best Costume Design
Probably one of the most nominated movies of the year.
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