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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 12, 2019 10:44:47 GMT
I am not sure if Mortensen is strong enough to call him a lock... I predict him but I wouldn't call him a lock.. its like one of these nominations that could easily miss out...
Anyway I see the Acting race like this:
ACTOR LOCKS
Rami Malek Bradley Cooper Christian Bale
fighting for the last spots:
Mortensen Washington Hawke Reilly
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2019 11:29:05 GMT
I am not sure if Mortensen is strong enough to call him a lock... I predict him but I wouldn't call him a lock.. its like one of these nominations that could easily miss out... Anyway I see the Acting race like this: ACTOR LOCKS Rami Malek Bradley Cooper Christian Bale fighting for the last spots:Mortensen Washington Hawke Reilly How is Mortensen not a lock here? His film won Best Comedy/Musical at the Globes, and scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and BAFTA Best Picture nominations. He's scored Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations himself.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 12, 2019 13:39:21 GMT
I am not sure if Mortensen is strong enough to call him a lock... I predict him but I wouldn't call him a lock.. its like one of these nominations that could easily miss out... Anyway I see the Acting race like this: ACTOR LOCKS Rami Malek Bradley Cooper Christian Bale fighting for the last spots:Mortensen Washington Hawke Reilly How is Mortensen not a lock here? His film won Best Comedy/Musical at the Globes, and scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and BAFTA Best Picture nominations. He's scored Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations himself. I dont know.. ask Paul Giamatti for example? Lock is a big word that is often used too early. He is a front runner for a nom yes. But not a lock. There is more that has to play into this if you ask me. Also the (unjustified?) backlash is still going on for both his "words" and the film itself.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2019 15:25:50 GMT
How is Mortensen not a lock here? His film won Best Comedy/Musical at the Globes, and scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and BAFTA Best Picture nominations. He's scored Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations himself. I dont know.. ask Paul Giamatti for example? Lock is a big word that is often used too early. He is a front runner for a nom yes. But not a lock. There is more that has to play into this if you ask me. Also the (unjustified?) backlash is still going on for both his "words" and the film itself. Paul Giamatti missed out on a BAFTA nomination. Mortensen was nominated for all four big ones. Five if you count the Satellite awards. If simply using the n-word (not directed against anybody) didn't hurt his shot at a SAG or BAFTA nomination, it shouldn't hurt him with the Oscars, especially when he talk about the nomination process. Maybe they are hesitant of the win, but not the nomination itself. There's no backlash against Green Book. We have a phony one though. Green Book is one of the most likable films of the year, and people are coming out of the film emotionally touched.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 12, 2019 15:59:07 GMT
I dont know.. ask Paul Giamatti for example? Lock is a big word that is often used too early. He is a front runner for a nom yes. But not a lock. There is more that has to play into this if you ask me. Also the (unjustified?) backlash is still going on for both his "words" and the film itself. Paul Giamatti missed out on a BAFTA nomination. Mortensen was nominated for all four big ones. Five if you count the Satellite awards. If simply using the n-word (not directed against anybody) didn't hurt his shot at a SAG or BAFTA nomination, it shouldn't hurt him with the Oscars, especially when he talk about the nomination process. Maybe they are hesitant of the win, but not the nomination itself. There's no backlash against Green Book. We have a phony one though. Green Book is one of the most likable films of the year, and people are coming out of the film emotionally touched. Like I said.... I also think he will be nominated, I also predict him. I just would not call him a lock as there are saver choices as him.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2019 16:04:48 GMT
Paul Giamatti missed out on a BAFTA nomination. Mortensen was nominated for all four big ones. Five if you count the Satellite awards. If simply using the n-word (not directed against anybody) didn't hurt his shot at a SAG or BAFTA nomination, it shouldn't hurt him with the Oscars, especially when he talk about the nomination process. Maybe they are hesitant of the win, but not the nomination itself. There's no backlash against Green Book. We have a phony one though. Green Book is one of the most likable films of the year, and people are coming out of the film emotionally touched. Like I said.... I also think he will be nominated, I also predict him. I just would not call him a lock as there are saver choices as him. He's just as much of a lock as Cooper. Same situation: Scored the Big 4, film intensely popular.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 12, 2019 16:22:20 GMT
Like I said.... I also think he will be nominated, I also predict him. I just would not call him a lock as there are saver choices as him. He's just as much of a lock as Cooper. Same situation: Scored the Big 4, film intensely popular. Well Cooper got better reviews and was destined a front runner from the beginning. He is the writer, director, producer and actor of his film. Locks are not only determined by the Big 4. Other factors play a role. Many who scored the Big 4 missed in the end.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2019 17:34:19 GMT
He's just as much of a lock as Cooper. Same situation: Scored the Big 4, film intensely popular. Well Cooper got better reviews and was destined a front runner from the beginning. He is the writer, director, producer and actor of his film. Locks are not only determined by the Big 4. Other factors play a role. Many who scored the Big 4 missed in the end. Now you're going down another bad rabbit hole. Green Book has won 4 Critics Circle Best Picture awards, including NBR, the Globe, and TIFF. ASIB won the Satellite and 2 Critics Circle awards. The Broadcast Film Critics has GB with a 94/100 score, ASIB with 92/100 Mortensen has 2 critics circle best actor awards, Cooper has one. So as I said before, if Mortensen is not a lock, neither is Cooper.
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2019 18:04:48 GMT
How is Mortensen not a lock here? His film won Best Comedy/Musical at the Globes, and scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and BAFTA Best Picture nominations. He's scored Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations himself. Tom Hanks says hello. People have hit all the major precursors and still missed at the end, and it happens more often than it used to these days (Swinton, Thompson, Gyllenhaal). And with Green Book getting slammed with controversy after controversy, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Mortensen (who has courted his own issues on the campaign trail) might miss. I don't think he'll get a whole lot of passionate #1 or #2 spots on ballots, and much like Hanks, he could easily get shafted in favor of a passion pick/late surge, especially as his co-star is getting more notices.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 12, 2019 18:47:19 GMT
Amy Adams too.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 12, 2019 19:17:08 GMT
There's no backlash against Green Book. We have a phony one though. Green Book is one of the most likable films of the year, and people are coming out of the film emotionally touched. To add to Stephen's points: while I'm not predicting Mortensen to be snubbed, there's no way to know for sure at this point that there's no backlash. The last two major groups to announce their nominations were BAFTA and DGA, and the latest controversies to hit Green Book broke out after the voting period was over for both of them (Jan. 2 and Jan. 9, respectively), so this latest batch of bad press couldn't have affected the film's chances. We have nothing to go off of right now because we don't know how the Academy is voting today in light of everything that's been published about Farrelly and Vallelonga, and we won't know until the 22nd. The truth is, though, that even if Green Book does wind up being snubbed in key categories, we'll never know for sure to what degree that will be due to its (now multiple) controversies, because we don't know where each nominee is placing with the other groups. Last year, the news of Franco's sexual misconduct broke out right in the middle of phase one Oscar voting, but he'd already been snubbed by BAFTA at that point (whereas the screenplay wasn't, meaning The Disaster Artist was seen by them; Franco just didn't have enough support to place). In spite of the "lock" talk that was being thrown around, Franco was always vulnerable to some extent, so it's possible that Washington would've snuck in either way even without a sexual harassment scandal to take down his main competitor for the #5 slot. We'll never know, is my point. It's certainly possible that the same goes for Farrelly this season, since he hit Globe + DGA but was snubbed by BAFTA even though Green Book hit Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Screenplay, meaning he lacked universal support even before his past came into focus. But back to Best Actor: the news that A24 isn't pushing First Reformed very hard has me questioning if Hawke will be seen by enough people to sneak in, but if he is, he could knock out one of Mortensen or Washington, who will probably be on a lot of ballots but with little #1 support.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 12, 2019 20:10:09 GMT
I wouldn't underestimate the GB backlash. Two years ago, LLL lost BP because people were saying it was about "white people stealing jazz", and 3BB lost a BD nod because it "sympathized" with a racist chatacter, which are all way lighter allegations than what Green Book team is facing - and those were two movies people loved way, way, waaaaaaay more.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2019 21:01:42 GMT
How is Mortensen not a lock here? His film won Best Comedy/Musical at the Globes, and scored PGA, DGA, WGA, and BAFTA Best Picture nominations. He's scored Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations himself. Tom Hanks says hello. People have hit all the major precursors and still missed at the end, and it happens more often than it used to these days (Swinton, Thompson, Gyllenhaal). And with Green Book getting slammed with controversy after controversy, it's not outside the realm of possibility that Mortensen (who has courted his own issues on the campaign trail) might miss. I don't think he'll get a whole lot of passionate #1 or #2 spots on ballots, and much like Hanks, he could easily get shafted in favor of a passion pick/late surge, especially as his co-star is getting more notices. As I pointed out before, you cannot logically label Cooper a lock, but Mortgensen, not a lock. It's just not logical. And to be fair, you cannot really call anybody a TRUE lock, seeing as how we saw Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow getting snubbed at the Oscars. Mortgensen used the n-word BEFORE the SAG or BAFTA members cast their ballots, and it didn't impact him one bit. That's why I don't buy it as a "meaningful" controversy. Back in 2001, there was so-called "huge" controversy surrounding A Beautiful Mind and that won Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Same deal with Slumdog Millionaire. For 2018, which "late surge contenders" are you referring to? Are you really predicting that Mortgensen is going to left out? What is your line-up? Cooper, Bale, Malek, Hawke, and Washington?
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2019 21:04:57 GMT
I wouldn't underestimate the GB backlash. Two years ago, LLL lost BP because people were saying it was about "white people stealing jazz", and 3BB lost a BD nod because it "sympathized" with a racist chatacter, which are all way lighter allegations than what Green Book team is facing - and those were two movies people loved way, way, waaaaaaay more. Billboards and LLL both scored Picture nominations. A poster is arguing that Mortgensen will not get nominated.
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2019 21:07:57 GMT
As I pointed out before, you cannot logically label Cooper a lock, but Mortgensen, not a lock. It's just not logical. And to be fair, you cannot really call anybody a TRUE lock, seeing as how we saw Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow getting snubbed at the Oscars. Mortgensen used the n-word BEFORE the SAG or BAFTA members cast their ballots, and it didn't impact him one bit. That's why I don't buy it as a "meaningful" controversy. Back in 2001, there was so-called "huge" controversy surrounding A Beautiful Mind and that won Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Same deal with Slumdog Millionaire. For 2018, which "late surge contenders" are you referring to? Are you really predicting that Mortgensen is going to left out? What is your line-up? Cooper, Bale, Malek, Hawke, and Washington? No, I'm predicting Bale, Cooper, Malek, Mortensen and Washington. I think the first three guys are pretty solidly in at the moment, and Washington's film has done exceedingly well with the guilds and isn't being hit with backlash. It all depends on whether or not A24 can suddenly step up a last-minute run for Hawke, who is quite well-liked in Hollywood and has a lot of high-profile supporters within the Academy.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2019 21:28:11 GMT
There's no backlash against Green Book. We have a phony one though. Green Book is one of the most likable films of the year, and people are coming out of the film emotionally touched. To add to Stephen's points: while I'm not predicting Mortensen to be snubbed, there's no way to know for sure at this point that there's no backlash. The last two major groups to announce their nominations were BAFTA and DGA, and the latest controversies to hit Green Book broke out after the voting period was over for both of them (Jan. 2 and Jan. 9, respectively), so this latest batch of bad press couldn't have affected the film's chances. We have nothing to go off of right now because we don't know how the Academy is voting today in light of everything that's been published about Farrelly and Vallelonga, and we won't know until the 22nd. The truth is, though, that even if Green Book does wind up being snubbed in key categories, we'll never know for sure to what degree that will be due to its (now multiple) controversies, because we don't know where each nominee is placing with the other groups. Last year, the news of Franco's sexual misconduct broke out right in the middle of phase one Oscar voting, but he'd already been snubbed by BAFTA at that point (whereas the screenplay wasn't, meaning The Disaster Artist was seen by them; Franco just didn't have enough support to place). In spite of the "lock" talk that was being thrown around, Franco was always vulnerable to some extent, so it's possible that Washington would've snuck in either way even without a sexual harassment scandal to take down his main competitor for the #5 slot. We'll never know, is my point. It's certainly possible that the same goes for Farrelly this season, since he hit Globe + DGA but was snubbed by BAFTA even though Green Book hit Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Screenplay, meaning he lacked universal support even before his past came into focus. But back to Best Actor: the news that A24 isn't pushing First Reformed very hard has me questioning if Hawke will be seen by enough people to sneak in, but if he is, he could knock out one of Mortensen or Washington, who will probably be on a lot of ballots but with little #1 support. I will address the bold points you made: All what I am saying is that Mortgensen, Cooper, Malek, and Bale are pretty safe picks, and that the fifth spot will probably go to either Dafoe, Washington, or Hawke. I am leaning toward Washington to be honest. There's no point in debating with me, if you agree with the concept that he's a safe pick and highly likely of going in. Mortgensen is not Nick Vallelonga. He simply used the n-word to describe the word being bad. This is not in any shape or form, like Franco getting in trouble for sexual harassment or Russell Crowe throwing a telephone at somebody. Our priorities in life are way messed up, if using the n-word to illustrate its wrongness is the same as somebody sexually harassing a woman/man. Wouldn't you agree? More over, didn't Casey Affleck win Best Actor, despite being accused of sexual misconduct? I have seen The Disaster Artist and Roman J. Israel. I easily prefer The Disaster Artist over Roman J. Israel, but the performance by Washington was superior. What I see really here is typically Oscar mumble-jumble here. Green Book is a popular film. Very audience friendly. It's a movie people are generally moved by and feel uplifted by. It's the type of movie that Oscars voters can digest easily. Everybody I have ever talked to, loved the film. I see this as an example of "lets kick the front-runner".
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 12, 2019 21:33:19 GMT
As I pointed out before, you cannot logically label Cooper a lock, but Mortgensen, not a lock. It's just not logical. And to be fair, you cannot really call anybody a TRUE lock, seeing as how we saw Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow getting snubbed at the Oscars. Mortgensen used the n-word BEFORE the SAG or BAFTA members cast their ballots, and it didn't impact him one bit. That's why I don't buy it as a "meaningful" controversy. Back in 2001, there was so-called "huge" controversy surrounding A Beautiful Mind and that won Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Same deal with Slumdog Millionaire. For 2018, which "late surge contenders" are you referring to? Are you really predicting that Mortgensen is going to left out? What is your line-up? Cooper, Bale, Malek, Hawke, and Washington? No, I'm predicting Bale, Cooper, Malek, Mortensen and Washington. I think the first three guys are pretty solidly in at the moment, and Washington's film has done exceedingly well with the guilds and isn't being hit with backlash. It all depends on whether or not A24 can suddenly step up a last-minute run for Hawke, who is quite well-liked in Hollywood and has a lot of high-profile supporters within the Academy. Well then, we're essentially having a petty debate here. We both are predicting the same five. I just think Mortgensen is a little more safe than you. My issue with you and Green Book, is your constant underestimation of the film. You debated with me about Farrelly getting nominated at the DGAs, and I ended up being right.
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Post by stephen on Jan 12, 2019 21:49:24 GMT
No, I'm predicting Bale, Cooper, Malek, Mortensen and Washington. I think the first three guys are pretty solidly in at the moment, and Washington's film has done exceedingly well with the guilds and isn't being hit with backlash. It all depends on whether or not A24 can suddenly step up a last-minute run for Hawke, who is quite well-liked in Hollywood and has a lot of high-profile supporters within the Academy. Well then, we're essentially having a petty debate here. We both are predicting the same five. I just think Mortgensen is a little more safe than you. My issue with you and Green Book, is your constant underestimation of the film. You debated with me about Farrelly getting nominated at the DGAs, and I ended up being right. I'm not having any kind of debate. I'm just saying that no one's a lock for a nomination until January 22, when nominees are read. We've seen "locks" miss almost every year this decade. Also, I don't think I debated with you on Farrelly getting in at DGA (or, at least, I don't remember it). I had him as my alternate choice, back when I thought they'd opt for Lanthimos (whose film was doing well with guilds) and Coogler (which obviously hasn't panned out well for me). It was McKay I didn't think would get in. But props to you if you called Farrelly. Let's see if he can hold his ground when Oscar nominations roll around.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 13, 2019 9:48:33 GMT
I wouldn't underestimate the GB backlash. Two years ago, LLL lost BP because people were saying it was about "white people stealing jazz", and 3BB lost a BD nod because it "sympathized" with a racist chatacter, which are all way lighter allegations than what Green Book team is facing - and those were two movies people loved way, way, waaaaaaay more. Billboards and LLL both scored Picture nominations. A poster is arguing that Mortgensen will not get nominated. Wait... do you refer to me? As I repeatedly said I do think he will get nominated ... I also predict him.... I just wouldn't label him a lock... people are too fast with that.. just like they are too fast with only see two sides... like you said I claim he wont be nominated ... while I said I think he will be however he is not the surest bet of the bunch!
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