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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 9, 2019 12:29:08 GMT
Now that most of the critics circle awards have been handed out, and all the major precursor nominations have been announce, lets talk about whose going to get nominated for an Oscar. LOCKS
Christian Bale Bradley Cooper Rami Malek Viggo Mortensen
All four scored best actor nominations at the Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA awards. Bale won the Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical. Malek won the Globe for Best Actor in a Drama, and the Satellite for Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical.
BUBBLE
Willem Dafoe - Globe and Critics Choice nominee, won the Satellite for Best Actor in a Drama.
John David Washington - Scored Globe and SAG nominations, and attached to a film with a great shot at winning Best Picture.
Ethan Hawke - Won at least 21 critics circle awards and landed a Critics Choice Best Actor nominations in a 7-person field.
Steve Coogan - BAFTA Best Actor nominee.
Ryan Gosling - Critics Choice nominee.
Lucas Hedges, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Robert Redford, and John C. Reilly - Globe nominee.
Whose getting nominated, specifically the 5th spot?
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Post by JangoB on Jan 9, 2019 12:36:05 GMT
I'm still (perhaps foolishly) betting on Ethan Hawke for the fifth spot.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Jan 9, 2019 13:03:32 GMT
I'd like Washington or Gosling to make it, even though I didn't like First Man much aside from Gosling.
Still, as we are talking who we think is getting in, and for me I feel it might still be Hawke.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 9, 2019 13:19:09 GMT
Washington doesn't do anything - zip, nothing, in his film (overrated too) - but his film has the glow so you have to assume it's him.
Hawke and Dafoe have the capability to sneak in but not both of them it seems to me. If Hawke somehow, inexplicably, is not nominated for Best Actor, well he's excluded from the mediocrity. To me this would be a far bigger snub than Gyllenhaal missing for Nightcrawler (Hawke is better than him, Hawke's film is far better than his too and the acting field is actually weaker this year arguably depending how it shakes out).
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 9, 2019 14:07:47 GMT
It'll be Washington
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 9, 2019 14:40:17 GMT
I still have a feeling Hawke will pull a Rampling and get in without any precursors but his film's snubs this season has been disheartening, and this is coming from someone who has never liked him before. I do think Washington is shaping up to be very likely. Most of all I want Gosling to get in but alas... Dafoe would be a great, inspired choice too.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 9, 2019 15:32:44 GMT
Washington is the safest choice. He's got SAG and GG, and he's in a strong film.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 9, 2019 16:12:21 GMT
Statistically Washington makes the most sense. He’s hit pretty much everywhere he would expect to (I mean come on he was never getting in at the BAFTA). But to me he still feels like that person that misses after getting everything that happens at least once a year.
So I’ll stick with Hawke for now.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 9, 2019 16:49:47 GMT
I'm still sticking with Washington. He was fortunate at BAFTA that Coogan, who isn't as big of a threat for the last spot got in over Hawke and Dafoe, and BlacKkKlansman showed how strong it is overall despite missing Best Actor. Plus, BAFTA doesn't have a very good track record with African-American nominees too like his dad has never been nominated for whatever reason.
He still has SAG and Globe nominations, he'll be in a Best Picture nominee perhaps even a top 3 BP nominee, and he's got his famous dad helping campaign for him. I think that's enough even with Hawke winning the critics award by a large margin over everyone else in this category and being a previous nominee. This year, it seems that there's an even bigger divide between the industry and critics awards except for Roma for the most part, and Hawke could be a victim of that. Add in A24 not campaigning that much this year as they have been, and First Reformed not likely to get any other nominations which means I think will lead to Hawke missing.
I'm not really sure what's going on with A24 if it's financial problems or because they don't think it's worth it to campaign that much if they don't have a big Best Picture contender, but Hawke and Collette deserved better.
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thomasjerome
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Post by thomasjerome on Jan 9, 2019 17:03:45 GMT
I'm still sticking with Washington. He was fortunate at BAFTA that Coogan, who isn't as big of a threat for the last spot got in over Hawke and Dafoe, and BlacKkKlansman showed how strong it is overall despite missing Best Actor. Plus, BAFTA doesn't have a very good track record with African-American nominees too like his dad has never been nominated for whatever reason. He still has SAG and Globe nominations, he'll be in a Best Picture nominee perhaps even a top 3 BP nominee, and he's got his famous dad helping campaign for him. I think that's enough even with Hawke winning the critics award by a large margin over everyone else in this category and being a previous nominee. This year, it seems that there's an even bigger divide between the industry and critics awards except for Roma for the most part, and Hawke could be a victim of that. Add in A24 not campaigning that much this year as they have been, and First Reformed not likely to get any other nominations which means I think will lead to Hawke missing. I'm not really sure what's going on with A24 if it's financial problems or because they don't think it's worth it to campaign that much if they don't have a big Best Picture contender, but Hawke and Collette deserved better. I agree with the rest of the post but have to note that, Dafoe was not eligible at BAFTAs as "At Eternity's Gate" has no release date yet there.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 9, 2019 20:28:29 GMT
I'm still sticking with Washington. He was fortunate at BAFTA that Coogan, who isn't as big of a threat for the last spot got in over Hawke and Dafoe, and BlacKkKlansman showed how strong it is overall despite missing Best Actor. Plus, BAFTA doesn't have a very good track record with African-American nominees too like his dad has never been nominated for whatever reason. He still has SAG and Globe nominations, he'll be in a Best Picture nominee perhaps even a top 3 BP nominee, and he's got his famous dad helping campaign for him. I think that's enough even with Hawke winning the critics award by a large margin over everyone else in this category and being a previous nominee. This year, it seems that there's an even bigger divide between the industry and critics awards except for Roma for the most part, and Hawke could be a victim of that. Add in A24 not campaigning that much this year as they have been, and First Reformed not likely to get any other nominations which means I think will lead to Hawke missing. I'm not really sure what's going on with A24 if it's financial problems or because they don't think it's worth it to campaign that much if they don't have a big Best Picture contender, but Hawke and Collette deserved better. I agree with the rest of the post but have to note that, Dafoe was not eligible at BAFTAs as "At Eternity's Gate" has no release date yet there. Thanks I forgot that I saw a tweet about that right before the BAFTA announcements. (It was a long night staying up, and then being too excited to go back to sleep when they finally came out.) I think Coogan would have got in anyway because of the home advantage, but it's good for Washington either way that it turned out be someone who likely isn't going to be much of a factor in the Best Actor race was nominated over someone that could have been. Plus, I notice the film twitter did its thing to an extent after the announcements, and went after BAFTA for only nominating Driver from BlacKkKlansman along with going after BAFTA for other reasons (no King, no female directors, etc.). I don't think BAFTA cares about optics as much as the Oscar do; although, I think that Bohemian Rhapsody missing Best Film could have been due to not wanting too much negative attention, although Singer still got a nomination for Best British Film. Since the Oscars do care about such things, at least to some extent, I think that will also help Washington.
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Post by MsMovieStar on Jan 9, 2019 20:41:55 GMT
Oh honey, I'm hoping that Ryan Gosling will be in and out, hard and fast... and wont finish too soon.
But I don't think that's what you're asking...
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 9, 2019 21:42:39 GMT
Washington is the safest bet. His film is one of the strongest of the season and he has SAG + Globe.
Hawke could be the one to make it with no precursor support. There's usually at least one.
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Post by Weaver Addict on Jan 9, 2019 22:53:06 GMT
Oh honey, I'm hoping that Ryan Gosling will be in and out, hard and fast... and wont finish too soon. But I don't think that's what you're asking... I'm sure he isnt your First Man.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 9, 2019 23:12:53 GMT
It's going to Washington because there's going to be lots of love for his film and because he's great in it.
Dafoe and Hawke are longshots (both apparently too artsy in a season where the obvious and safe picks are dominating the major precursors)
Coogan and Hedges have no chance
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 10, 2019 0:14:56 GMT
Washington
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 10, 2019 0:22:38 GMT
I still have a feeling Hawke will pull a Rampling and get in without any precursors but his film's snubs this season has been disheartening, and this is coming from someone who has never liked him before. I do think Washington is shaping up to be very likely. Most of all I want Gosling to get in but alas... Dafoe would be a great, inspired choice too. Yep. Only Hawke's wins were much more. I find it hard to believe a performance with this many trophies would get left out.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 10, 2019 1:20:34 GMT
I think a scenario in which both Washington and Hawke make it is possible (circa. Lawrence and Rampling in 2016), in that case it would be at Viggo's expense since Cooper, Malek and Bale are as safe as Larson, Ronan and Blanchett were.
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Post by marvelass on Jan 11, 2019 20:40:39 GMT
Washington doesn't do anything - zip, nothing, in his film Didn't stop Mahershala Ali from getting a nod (and win!) for Moonlight.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 11, 2019 21:09:54 GMT
Washington doesn't do anything - zip, nothing, in his film Except carry the movie, sell most of the comedic moments that made the movie a hit (particularly the phone convos with the KKK), have a fantastic chemistry with Adam Driver, and still balance a solid dramatic performance. What Washington (Jr) did was hard. And he had to do it without leaning too hard into the comedy. He's the lynchpin that holds the film together. I know that probably doesn't mean much to you as you are predisposed to disliking Lee films, but to those who like the film, Washington is a key reason why it works and why it's getting so much awards notice.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2019 21:47:50 GMT
Washington doesn't do anything - zip, nothing, in his film Except carry the movie, sell most of the comedic moments that made the movie a hit (particularly the phone convos with the KKK), have a fantastic chemistry with Adam Driver, and still balance a solid dramatic performance. What Washington (Jr) did was hard. And he had to do it without leaning too hard into the comedy. He's the lynchpin that holds the film together. I know that probably doesn't mean much to you as you are predisposed to disliking Lee films, but to those who like the film, Washington is a key reason why it works and why it's getting so much awards notice. Meh - I may be predisposed to not liking Lee's films - he keeps trying, and so do I (bless us both) but what Washington does isn't that hard, certainly not on the planet of what Hawke did - so while I don't dispute that he may be deserving of some praise (and I'm being nice because he doesn't get that much from me - he's fine) he's not deserving of a slot here which was, you know the point of the thread.........and speaking about things I am predisposed to not liking - I don't like Ethan Hawke particularly. Yet, he deserves to win this year for the performance of his life. See, I'm weird that way, if you do something special I will say so but if you make Blackkklansman well..............not so much (anyone curious can see my thoughts in that thread, 6.5/10).
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 11, 2019 23:49:51 GMT
Except carry the movie, sell most of the comedic moments that made the movie a hit (particularly the phone convos with the KKK), have a fantastic chemistry with Adam Driver, and still balance a solid dramatic performance. What Washington (Jr) did was hard. And he had to do it without leaning too hard into the comedy. He's the lynchpin that holds the film together. I know that probably doesn't mean much to you as you are predisposed to disliking Lee films, but to those who like the film, Washington is a key reason why it works and why it's getting so much awards notice. Meh - I may be predisposed to not liking Lee's films - he keeps trying, and so do I (bless us both) but what Washington does isn't that hard, certainly not on the planet of what Hawke did - so while I don't dispute that he may be deserving of some praise (and I'm being nice because he doesn't get that much from me - he's fine) he's not deserving of a slot here which was, you know the point of the thread.........and speaking about things I am predisposed to not liking - I don't like Ethan Hawke particularly. Yet, he deserves to win this year for the performance of his life. See, I'm weird that way, if you do something special I will say so but if you make Blackkklansman well..............not so much (anyone curious can see my thoughts in that thread, 6.5/10). Unlike you, I'm actually a fan of Hawke. He's given far better performances than First Reformed ( a really, really stupid movie, that tries to present itself as something smart). Critics are overcompensating for treating Hawke like trash for so many years, when he's rarely been less than solid. I can see why the industry isn't buying it in their awards, because they know what Hawke is capable of, and don't need to overcompensate like critics because they've treated him decently in the past. As someone who likes Hawke, I don't quite get the big deal here. This is standard stuff for him. But critics gonna critic. Washington was better.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 12, 2019 0:13:15 GMT
But critics gonna critic. Washington was better
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 12, 2019 0:21:27 GMT
Hey, sorry If I offended by saying First Reformed was a dumb movie, but to me, it is.
Thhere's a reason Hawke isn't undeniable for a nod, when the industry is often pretty quick to piggyback on a Critics sweeper. He's aight. Been better before, will be better again. This one ain't it.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 12, 2019 0:27:01 GMT
Thhere's a reason Hawke isn't undeniable for a nodI think the "reason" is because you know, awards for acting are phony, political and bought. But you do you, no offense taken at all. Side note : I actually made a post today about Denzel Washington (sort of) - and this is what you're replying to me about
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