Post by jakob on Jan 8, 2019 4:23:09 GMT
I'll preface by saying I know the Globes mean nothing, TECHNICALLY, due to it being a different awards group voting, but what the Globes do is remind people of the race, who to look out for, and who to judge based off the Globe wins. I'll go through 9 Best Picture contenders to prognosticate what happens now.
BLACKKKLANSMAN (STATUS: MUTED)
As far as we can tell, BlacKkKlansman will have to wait for other awards groups and guilds to really have any affect on this race given it's bridesmaid status at the Globes. It could still win Adapted Screenplay but we won't know that until WGA announces their winner.
BLACK PANTHER (STATUS: SLIGHTLY DECREASED)
It wasn't destined to win any Globes last night, but today it had a chance to be nominated at the Editor's Guild and the Cinematographer's Guild and couldn't even manage that. Not a clear sign that means anything, it's still getting nominated FOR SURE, but beyond possibly securing itself an Adapted Screenplay nod, Black Panther will settle for just being lucky to be the first superhero film ever nominated for Best Picture.
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (STATUS: EXTREMELY DECREASED)
Yup. I mean that. Not that it had a shot at winning the ACTUAL Best Picture prize, but the backlash for its win at the Globes may have just cost it a nomination. I know that sounds extreme, but before the Globes, I'd argue it had an easy shoo-in shot at a nomination due to the love from the guilds and precursors and supposed adoration from the industry's Academy members. Now? The argument about awarding a Bryan Singer film has just hit the day nomination voting has begun, which we figured wouldn't hurt James Francos' chances last year, and we know how that turned out. I'm not saying it won't get in now, but I'd argue it went from 5-6th most likely to be nominated to probably 8th or 9th. Plus, it's now going to get struck with the popularity backlash that a more deserving film like La La Land suffered. It dominating our supposed frontrunners have now swung open the doors for both Green Book (we'll get to that later), Roma, and supposed Globes frontrunner and shocking loser A Star Is Born. Plus, the ad WB put out showcasing the film and a very vulnerable, crying Bradley Cooper may give voters watching the telecast a reminder of a film that may deserve it more and missed out. Popularity is the modern Oscar contender's worst enemy, and especially while steeped in controversy during the MeToo era of Hollywood, whisper campaigns will do the best they can to barricade out films like Bohemian Rhapsody. And as we all know, the Globes like to award popularity and celebrity status first (remember Madonna's Globe win in 2012?) and sometimes their wins don't even translate to Oscar NOMINATIONS.
THE FAVOURITE (STATUS: SLIGHTLY DECREASED)
Olivia Colman may walk away with the Best Actress Oscar, but the film (unless it gets an AMAZING BAFTA boost, and given BAFTA ignores Green Book) may have lost its frontrunner spot at Original Screenplay given Green Book will win the WGA and it won the Globe. Also with Yorgos perhaps only on the cusp of a potential Director nomination, it overall may just get swallowed up in the Best Picture category, although, as I said, Colman's adorable speech and her expected BAFTA win may have what it takes to beat Glenn Close.
GREEN BOOK (STATUS: INCREASED, BUT WITH A CATCH)
Globe speeches can affect Oscar races pretty easily (see VICE below) and while Green Book beating The Favourite may have secured itself above The Favourite as a top 5 contender, with Ali getting a leg up on a Supporting Actor win, Farelly's speech for Best Comedy/Musical preached misguided self importance, clearly trying to cover up in his best words the internet's criticisms of his film. In what could have been a humble speech of thank yous, Farelly chose to grab his filmmaker bible and preach, which according to many, turned off a lot of people. That argument I present is just something to consider, but Green Book's fans are loyal and given its crowd pleaser status, it's just going to charm too many people. More people will see Green Book after its win and more than likely respond warmly to it. If Farrelly gets a DGA nomination, we may have to clench our fists on this taking it all the way.
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (STATUS: INCREASED, BUT WITH A CATCH)
This isn't a threat to win, this is purely about it getting nominated. I think the Globe win for King over the easier choice of double-nominee (and double-loser) Amy Adams adds a future Oscar-winning pedigree to this film as a whole which may have enough quietly passionate (perhaps too quiet) fans to snag it a lucky Best Picture nomination (and perhaps a small batch of maybe 3-4 nominations total). That didn't help Janney last year, but afterglow love for Jenkins (who is still up in the air for a Director nomination) gives it a better shot than I, Tonya had (whose director Craig Gillipsie hadn't made an awards contender before).
ROMA (STATUS: INCREASED)
Cuaron won Director last night and that's all it needed (given it wasn't eligible for Drama). The Globes were the perfect place to throw the bone to anyone else in that category for popularity sake, but they chose Cuaron, who is destined to be unbeatable. Given a Director's winning streak be like Cuaron's, the film might carry through as the quiet underdog that no normal viewers see coming, yet should have seen coming a mile away. Plus, as I've said time and again, first streaming film to win, first foreign Best Picture winner ever. Given all the timely talk about the wall around Mexico, awarding a film that is a celebration of the country may be on a lot of voters' minds. Plus, it's the best reviewed contender, which helped both Spotlight, The Hurt Locker and Moonlight.
A STAR IS BORN (STATUS: EXTREMELY INCREASED)
Because who knew the frontrunner would end up being the underdog? After infamously losing at the Globes, voters may feel obligated to re-award A Star is Born at the Oscars as a makeup victory. It's a universally liked/loved movie from both critics and audiences and it will be the film that most general audiences will be rooting for. It's only loss is that Lady Gaga lost her frontrunner status and the film may need an acting win to back up a Best Picture win... maybe Cooper? Viewers loved Bale's speech and Malek beat Cooper for the Globe, but neither of those actors are in a film as loved as A Star is Born, and Cooper is destined to win something on Oscar night. His status as Best Actor may be determined at SAG, but earlier voting may affect his chances. A Star is Born got an incredible boost tonight (retroactively), especially after the ad that was played after the Globes, but it may need to be assisted by an Acting win or a Screenplay win.
VICE (STATUS: INCREASED)
This won't win, but I think Bale's spectacularly charming speech and the more democratic politics of Hollywood will secure this a nomination for Best Picture EASILY and Bale may have given Malek a run for his money (or you know, Oscar). The reception for Bale's win seemed far more warm and enjoyed than Malek's, whose stiff speech seemed to create literal dead air with every breath he took. This is one of two critic-proof Best Picture nominees we may get and after the Globes, despite BH's win, I felt Vice might stand at an advantage. Now some of you may think Bale's speech was just him drunk rambling and Malek's speech to be dignified and respectable, but BH has far more controversy under its belt and might suffer the most for it, whereas Vice's controversies seem to only be addressed in its handful of not-so-positive reviews, yet nonexistent in the industry.
NOMINATION CHANCES:
1) A Star Is Born
2) Roma
3) Green Book
4) Black Panther
5) The Favourite
6) BlacKkKlansman
7) Vice
8) Bohemian Rhapsody
9) If Beale Street Could Talk
----
10) A Quiet Place (PGA nominee)
11) Crazy Rich Asians (PGA nominee)
WIN CHANCES:
1) Roma
2) A Star Is Born
3) Green Book
4) The Favourite
5) Black Panther
6) BlacKkKlansman
--the rest have no chance--
BLACKKKLANSMAN (STATUS: MUTED)
As far as we can tell, BlacKkKlansman will have to wait for other awards groups and guilds to really have any affect on this race given it's bridesmaid status at the Globes. It could still win Adapted Screenplay but we won't know that until WGA announces their winner.
BLACK PANTHER (STATUS: SLIGHTLY DECREASED)
It wasn't destined to win any Globes last night, but today it had a chance to be nominated at the Editor's Guild and the Cinematographer's Guild and couldn't even manage that. Not a clear sign that means anything, it's still getting nominated FOR SURE, but beyond possibly securing itself an Adapted Screenplay nod, Black Panther will settle for just being lucky to be the first superhero film ever nominated for Best Picture.
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (STATUS: EXTREMELY DECREASED)
Yup. I mean that. Not that it had a shot at winning the ACTUAL Best Picture prize, but the backlash for its win at the Globes may have just cost it a nomination. I know that sounds extreme, but before the Globes, I'd argue it had an easy shoo-in shot at a nomination due to the love from the guilds and precursors and supposed adoration from the industry's Academy members. Now? The argument about awarding a Bryan Singer film has just hit the day nomination voting has begun, which we figured wouldn't hurt James Francos' chances last year, and we know how that turned out. I'm not saying it won't get in now, but I'd argue it went from 5-6th most likely to be nominated to probably 8th or 9th. Plus, it's now going to get struck with the popularity backlash that a more deserving film like La La Land suffered. It dominating our supposed frontrunners have now swung open the doors for both Green Book (we'll get to that later), Roma, and supposed Globes frontrunner and shocking loser A Star Is Born. Plus, the ad WB put out showcasing the film and a very vulnerable, crying Bradley Cooper may give voters watching the telecast a reminder of a film that may deserve it more and missed out. Popularity is the modern Oscar contender's worst enemy, and especially while steeped in controversy during the MeToo era of Hollywood, whisper campaigns will do the best they can to barricade out films like Bohemian Rhapsody. And as we all know, the Globes like to award popularity and celebrity status first (remember Madonna's Globe win in 2012?) and sometimes their wins don't even translate to Oscar NOMINATIONS.
THE FAVOURITE (STATUS: SLIGHTLY DECREASED)
Olivia Colman may walk away with the Best Actress Oscar, but the film (unless it gets an AMAZING BAFTA boost, and given BAFTA ignores Green Book) may have lost its frontrunner spot at Original Screenplay given Green Book will win the WGA and it won the Globe. Also with Yorgos perhaps only on the cusp of a potential Director nomination, it overall may just get swallowed up in the Best Picture category, although, as I said, Colman's adorable speech and her expected BAFTA win may have what it takes to beat Glenn Close.
GREEN BOOK (STATUS: INCREASED, BUT WITH A CATCH)
Globe speeches can affect Oscar races pretty easily (see VICE below) and while Green Book beating The Favourite may have secured itself above The Favourite as a top 5 contender, with Ali getting a leg up on a Supporting Actor win, Farelly's speech for Best Comedy/Musical preached misguided self importance, clearly trying to cover up in his best words the internet's criticisms of his film. In what could have been a humble speech of thank yous, Farelly chose to grab his filmmaker bible and preach, which according to many, turned off a lot of people. That argument I present is just something to consider, but Green Book's fans are loyal and given its crowd pleaser status, it's just going to charm too many people. More people will see Green Book after its win and more than likely respond warmly to it. If Farrelly gets a DGA nomination, we may have to clench our fists on this taking it all the way.
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (STATUS: INCREASED, BUT WITH A CATCH)
This isn't a threat to win, this is purely about it getting nominated. I think the Globe win for King over the easier choice of double-nominee (and double-loser) Amy Adams adds a future Oscar-winning pedigree to this film as a whole which may have enough quietly passionate (perhaps too quiet) fans to snag it a lucky Best Picture nomination (and perhaps a small batch of maybe 3-4 nominations total). That didn't help Janney last year, but afterglow love for Jenkins (who is still up in the air for a Director nomination) gives it a better shot than I, Tonya had (whose director Craig Gillipsie hadn't made an awards contender before).
ROMA (STATUS: INCREASED)
Cuaron won Director last night and that's all it needed (given it wasn't eligible for Drama). The Globes were the perfect place to throw the bone to anyone else in that category for popularity sake, but they chose Cuaron, who is destined to be unbeatable. Given a Director's winning streak be like Cuaron's, the film might carry through as the quiet underdog that no normal viewers see coming, yet should have seen coming a mile away. Plus, as I've said time and again, first streaming film to win, first foreign Best Picture winner ever. Given all the timely talk about the wall around Mexico, awarding a film that is a celebration of the country may be on a lot of voters' minds. Plus, it's the best reviewed contender, which helped both Spotlight, The Hurt Locker and Moonlight.
A STAR IS BORN (STATUS: EXTREMELY INCREASED)
Because who knew the frontrunner would end up being the underdog? After infamously losing at the Globes, voters may feel obligated to re-award A Star is Born at the Oscars as a makeup victory. It's a universally liked/loved movie from both critics and audiences and it will be the film that most general audiences will be rooting for. It's only loss is that Lady Gaga lost her frontrunner status and the film may need an acting win to back up a Best Picture win... maybe Cooper? Viewers loved Bale's speech and Malek beat Cooper for the Globe, but neither of those actors are in a film as loved as A Star is Born, and Cooper is destined to win something on Oscar night. His status as Best Actor may be determined at SAG, but earlier voting may affect his chances. A Star is Born got an incredible boost tonight (retroactively), especially after the ad that was played after the Globes, but it may need to be assisted by an Acting win or a Screenplay win.
VICE (STATUS: INCREASED)
This won't win, but I think Bale's spectacularly charming speech and the more democratic politics of Hollywood will secure this a nomination for Best Picture EASILY and Bale may have given Malek a run for his money (or you know, Oscar). The reception for Bale's win seemed far more warm and enjoyed than Malek's, whose stiff speech seemed to create literal dead air with every breath he took. This is one of two critic-proof Best Picture nominees we may get and after the Globes, despite BH's win, I felt Vice might stand at an advantage. Now some of you may think Bale's speech was just him drunk rambling and Malek's speech to be dignified and respectable, but BH has far more controversy under its belt and might suffer the most for it, whereas Vice's controversies seem to only be addressed in its handful of not-so-positive reviews, yet nonexistent in the industry.
NOMINATION CHANCES:
1) A Star Is Born
2) Roma
3) Green Book
4) Black Panther
5) The Favourite
6) BlacKkKlansman
7) Vice
8) Bohemian Rhapsody
9) If Beale Street Could Talk
----
10) A Quiet Place (PGA nominee)
11) Crazy Rich Asians (PGA nominee)
WIN CHANCES:
1) Roma
2) A Star Is Born
3) Green Book
4) The Favourite
5) Black Panther
6) BlacKkKlansman
--the rest have no chance--
