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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 8, 2019 3:49:27 GMT
The DGAs are probably the most important of them all.
Don't believe me? Consider some facts:
- Driving Miss Daisy was the last time (and probably only time) a Best Picture winner failed to score a DGA nomination.
- 77% of the time, the DGA winner went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
- Atonement, The Cardinal, Spartacus, and Johnny Belinda are the only Best Drama winners which failed to score a DGA nomination.
LOCKS
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Spike Lee (BlackKklansman)
Cuaron won the Globe for Best Director, scored a Critics Choice Best Director nomination, and currently leading the pack with by far the most Critics Circle awards.
Cooper and Lee scored Globe and Critics Choice nominations for Best Director, and have scored PGA, SAGE, and WGA nominations.
ALMOST LOCK
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
He's an almost lock for me. Farrelly scored director's nominations at the Globes and Critics Choice awards. His film has already scored PGA and WGA nominations. Add to the Best Picture win last night, and he's as close as you get to lock status.
BUBBLE
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) - PGA, SAGE, and WGA nominations.
Adam McKay (Vice) - Minus the Best Picture win, he's in the same boat as Farrelly. Big issue? Vice seems to be a pretty divisive film.
Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians), John Krasinski (A Quiet Place), and Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), - PGA nomination.
Bryan Singer (Bohemian Rhapsody) - He was canned before completing the project, but one cannot ignore the fact that it won Best Drama, and that's pretty much always a DGA contender.
I am sticking with Cooper, Cuaron, Lee, Farrelly, and McKay.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 8, 2019 3:55:38 GMT
If Singer gets nominated, shit's gonna get REAL messy. For now everyone's just pretending that Bohemian Rhapsody is the first self-directed film in the history of cinema, but if they start actually giving him awards this entire season is gonna get very ugly.
I'm thinking:
1. Cuarón
2. Cooper
3. Lee
4. Farrelly
5. Lanthimos
6. Coogler
7. McKay
That top 4 is looking pretty safe. The Favourite's shown up everywhere so far, so I'm going with Lanthimos for the last slot (though Coogler wouldn't surprise me at all).
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The-Havok
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Doing pretty good so far
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 8, 2019 4:15:49 GMT
Cuaron
Cooper
Lee
Lanthimos
McKay
Coogler
Singer
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 8, 2019 7:01:46 GMT
Ryan Coogler
Bradley Cooper
Alfonso Cuaron
Peter Farrelly
Spike Lee
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 8, 2019 7:16:41 GMT
If Singer gets nominated, shit's gonna get REAL messy. For now everyone's just pretending that Bohemian Rhapsody is the first self-directed film in the history of cinema, but if they start actually giving him awards this entire season is gonna get very ugly. I'm thinking: 1. Cuarón 2. Cooper 3. Lee 4. Farrelly 5. Lanthimos 6. Coogler 7. McKay That top 4 is looking pretty safe. The Favourite's shown up everywhere so far, so I'm going with Lanthimos for the last slot (though Coogler wouldn't surprise me at all). This is my exact order too. I'm not even going to list Singer as a possible nominee. Sure there might be DGA voters that believe that art can be separated from the artist, but it's not like Singer is on the level of Woody Allen or Roman Polanski either. They would also have to live under a rock to not know how much grief that they would get for nominating Singer. Sure I think he could get a few votes from those that maybe don't believe the accusations and feel sorry for what he's going through. Or from those that don't care about the accusations. Certainly not enough votes to actually be nominated though. Watch it happen tomorrow, so I'll lose even more faith in the world.  Seriously though I just can't see it no matter how much Bohemian Rhapsody has overperformed so far, or how successful it was with audiences. They didn't even send screeners out for DGA. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 8, 2019 8:03:02 GMT
Bryan's InstagramBryan posted the above and people lost their shit so I doubt DGA gives him a nod. So I'm going with: Roma, Green Book, Black Panther, Star is Born, Blackkklansman
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 8, 2019 9:33:35 GMT
not sure why everyone's still predicting Cooper as the runner-up. Has he won any BD prizes this year at all apart from NBR?  |
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 8, 2019 10:31:09 GMT
not sure why everyone's still predicting Cooper as the runner-up. Has he won any BD prizes this year at all apart from NBR? I think he's probably really far back, but ASIB has still hit every guild so far. With the other contenders, they have more cons than Cooper, imo, as well. Lee already won an Honorary Oscar, so I think that could work against him especially as at least at IMDb, I know that there were complaints that he was too young and didn't deserve it over a director like David Lynch. Plus, while BlacKkKlansman has done fairly well so far, it still hasn't won anything major. Lee might be in second, but that's what I heard at the Globes, and BlacKkKlansman still went home with empty-handed when they easily could have gave it Best Drama if they wanted an alternative to ASIB. I've also heard that he's made lot of enemies, and I could believe that, so while I think there's a very narrow path for him, realistically I think there's also a lot working against him too. Still there are worse things than being locked into third place for a Best Director nomination. I can't see Farrelly winning even if he is nominated and Green Book wins Best Picture. Sure he's made a lot of money with his other films, but the direction is so basic and splits are much more common now, I just don't see it at all. I would actually predict him to miss before he predicting that a win for him, and that's with Green Book winning BP. It could totally be Driving Miss Daisy redux especially with Spike Lee having a film out in the same year that's in awards contention too. I also don't see Coogler, Jenkins, Lanthos, or McKay having any chance of winning even if they're nominated. |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 8, 2019 11:15:44 GMT
Yeah now I'm convinced Farrelly makes it.
Cuaron, Cooper, Lee, Farrelly, Coogler/Lanthimos.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 8, 2019 11:36:55 GMT
Singer is not in contention. They won't let him happen.
It's gonna be:
Cuaron, Cooper, Lee, Farrelly, McKay.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 8, 2019 12:18:09 GMT
Singer is not in contention. They won't let him happen. It's gonna be: Cuaron, Cooper, Lee, Farrelly, McKay. Singer is a contender because "his film" won the Globe for Best Drama and "his film" scored PGA and SAGE nominations. The Director's Guild has every right to nominate who they want. I don't think he's going to get nominated, but I am not going to dismiss him as a potential. |
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 8, 2019 16:44:17 GMT
Cuaron
Lee
Cooper
Lanthimos
McKay
With Farrelly as an Alternate to Lanthimos or McKay.
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2019 16:47:18 GMT
Coogler, Cooper, Cuaron, Lanthimos, Lee.
With Farrelly as an alternate. Coogler's film has taken hit after hit at crucial guilds, but I still think he commands enough respect to sneak a nod.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 8, 2019 16:52:21 GMT
Coogler, Cooper, Cuaron, Lanthimos, Lee. With Farrelly as an alternate. Coogler's film has taken hit after hit at crucial guilds, but I still think he commands enough respect to sneak a nod. I'm still predicting Coogler because the DGA often goes more "basic" than most guilds, but missing thre ACE Eddie was a terrible sign for the movie. |
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Seriously though I just can't see it no matter how much Bohemian Rhapsody has overperformed so far, or how successful it was with audiences. They didn't even send screeners out for DGA. 
