Rank this year's inevitable Best Actor line-up

Bale
Malek
Mortensen
Washington
Cooper

Wow, didn't know you were so down on Cooper. I know you were lukewarm on the film, and disliked his directing, but I thought you were positive about his performance.

I'm seeing Bale tonight, but Coop's definitely my #1 of the 4 I've seen, and I think it's the most convincing & heartbreaking portrayal of alcoholism onscreen I've seen since Nic Cage in LEAVING LAS VEGAS (though nowhere near as all-time great as Cage, before the insults start, lol, but still the best since), and probably his best performance yet. His close-up facial expression the last time we see him before "the big moment" haunted me for weeks after I saw it. Hands down his best scene in the movie, though the one in the car with Elliot was a close second.

I've actually seen all of these.

1. Cooper
2. Bale
3. Washington
4. Malek
5. Mortensen

I think that Hawke is just as likely as Washington...? so I'm including him

1. Hawke*** (my win)
2. Malek* (currently, in lineup)
3. Bale* (currently, in lineup)

4. Washington
5. Cooper










6. Mortensen

Haven't seen Malek yet but I'll include Hawke instead (who I think still has a chance to get in):

1. Hawke
2. Mortensen
3. Bale
4. Cooper
5. Washington

I like'em all.

1. Gosling
2. Mortensen
3. Bale

I think Mortensen's individual controversy has largely subsided, although I do think the film is about to get walloped by some backlash. I can definitely see Hawke squeezing in -- he's a multiple nominee with a lot of friends in the industry, and he seems to fit the bill of a critical favorite who sneaks some crucial passion voting at the right time.

only seen Cooper and Washington so far. Really like both of them.

I agree with stephen that I think Mortensen's backlash is forgotten now, but I do think he could possibly be in more danger than people think even with Green Book looking stronger now. Bale, Cooper, and Malek all have some kind of hook, imo. Bale is how he transformed himself again. Cooper's is how he took a project and then took a chance in someone with very little acting experience that most people had no faith in and surpassed all expectations. Malek's is that he's playing one of the most famous musicians of all time. I don't know that Mortensen has that "hook" that the others do even if Green Book is a beloved film. 

I think Washington would be the most vulnerable, but that might work to his advantage, as voters will think that he could be in danger, and put him in their #1 spot thinking that Mortensen is safe. It reminds me of when Amy Adams missed for Arrival. Stone was in the Best Picture frontrunner plus won the Volpi Cup and other awards plus did her own singing and dancing. Huppert was the legend who had never been nominated before who swept all the top critics. Portman was portraying one of the most well known woman of the modern age. Streep was Streep. That left the final spot between Adams and Negga. Adams seemed like she would be safe because she hit everywhere, and Arrival was also expected to do well in other categories like Best Picture, but she ended up missing out in the end. Her prior nominations could have also worked against her there too. If she wasn't winning for Arrival, then why give her another nomination, when a newcomer like Negga could use the exposure more. While Mortensen has only been nominated twice, he's not a newbie, and he's not in a position to win either. 

Of course, I think that it's most likely at this point that SAG 5 remains the same even with Hawke winning the trifecta and so many other awards and being a previous nominee, because he'll probably be the only nominee from First Reformed. Doesn't seem like the industry is going for the film at all despite A24's campaign about how Paul Schrader had never been nominated before. Even the Globes ignored Hawke over Dafoe and Hedges. BlacKkKlansman seems to be doing very well with the industry so far. Even if it only wins WGA and Best Adapted Screenplay, at least, so far, it's hit pretty much every place that it was expected to. There was some backlash earlier back in the summer, but that's been pretty much forgotten, and now Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book, and Vice have to deal with that more. 

Plus, never underestimate the powers of nepotism in the industry. Washington was very savvy in taking his dad with him to the Globes, and several times during the telecast, it would get a close-up of the elder Washington. I know Kate Hudson ended up losing for Almost Famous, but she won a Globe and got major mileage out of being Goldie's daughter. 

With Washington, I think he was smart in not using his dad too early on, but now that voting opens soon, it was the perfect time to remind other voters who is dad exactly at an event where it would get maximum exposure knowing that BlacKkKlansman wasn't favored to win anything anyways at the Globes, and that Hawke is breathing right down his neck for that last spot. Further, just seeing how much his dad was so friendly with everyone last night drove the point home even more that the son is Hollywood royalty. I mean freaking Mary Hart of all people gushed about how she remembered JDW as a young boy and how it's so amazing to see him as an actor now like his father at the Palm Springs International Film Festival where she was the Emcee. So if JDW can get the kind of reaction from her, I could see him getting enough votes based on that factor to get him the last spot. 

Of course, race could also be a factor in Washington's favor. Malek is Egyptian, but if voters do shower a lot of nominations on Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book, and they don't nominate any women directors again, along with whole Kevin Hart and popular film debacles, at least with Washington nominated, and perhaps 3 poc winning in Ali, King, and Malek, they can avoid one controversy. 

Great
1. Washington
Pretty good
2. Malek
3. Mortensen
4. Bale
5. Cooper

I'm really not interested in even watching any of these inevitable nominees' films. What a terribly boring lineup.