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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 7, 2019 21:04:51 GMT
Considering his lack of name recognition, I'd say yes. Don't think he can win with just BAFTA.
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Post by Atrocity-Querelle on Jan 7, 2019 21:09:09 GMT
If Ali wins, then yes, it's over. If Elliott wins, that'll be a boon for his chances, I think. I'm getting 2007 vibes from this race lately, with Ali as the Blanchett analogue, Elliott as Ruby Dee with a penis, & Grant as the Swinton analogue. BAFTA was all she needed, so why not the same for Grant? The biggest hurdle he had was having his film be seen widely enough, and that's certainly no issue at this point. Hell, I am mulling over put it back into my BP predictions right now, and that'd be a really good indicator that he's on track to win.
And I really, really do not see Elliott winning, even with SAG, btw. I always see him compared to Coburn in 1998, but that win was just a complete bizarro fluke, primarily motivated by AMPAS's seething hatred for poor Ed Harris. Seriously, what the fuck did he ever do to deserve getting raw-dogged by them so badly that year? Sheesh.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 7, 2019 21:45:09 GMT
If Ali wins, then yes, it's over. If Elliott wins, that'll be a boon for his chances, I think. I'm getting 2007 vibes from this race lately, with Ali as the Blanchett analogue, Elliott as Ruby Dee with a penis, & Grant as the Swinton analogue. BAFTA was all she needed, so why not the same for Grant? The biggest hurdle he had was having his film be seen widely enough, and that's certainly no issue at this point. Hell, I am mulling over put it back into my BP predictions right now, and that'd be a really good indicator that he's on track to win. And I really, really do not see Elliott winning, even with SAG, btw. I always see him compared to Coburn in 1998, but that win was just a complete bizarro fluke, primarily motivated by AMPAS's seething hatred for poor Ed Harris. Seriously, what the fuck did he ever do to deserve getting raw-dogged by them so badly that year? Sheesh. Why Not? He's a fucking LEGEND in the biz and he's in one of the year's Top 3 contenders. On paper, he makes more sense than Grant. Critics sweep often doesn't translate to Oscar. Ask Thomas Haden Church or Amy Ryan. |
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Post by sirjeremy on Jan 7, 2019 22:28:13 GMT
If Ali wins, then yes, it's over. If Elliott wins, that'll be a boon for his chances, I think. I'm getting 2007 vibes from this race lately, with Ali as the Blanchett analogue, Elliott as Ruby Dee with a penis, & Grant as the Swinton analogue. BAFTA was all she needed, so why not the same for Grant? The biggest hurdle he had was having his film be seen widely enough, and that's certainly no issue at this point. Hell, I am mulling over put it back into my BP predictions right now, and that'd be a really good indicator that he's on track to win. And I really, really do not see Elliott winning, even with SAG, btw. I always see him compared to Coburn in 1998, but that win was just a complete bizarro fluke, primarily motivated by AMPAS's seething hatred for poor Ed Harris. Seriously, what the fuck did he ever do to deserve getting raw-dogged by them so badly that year? Sheesh. I don't feel the Elliott and Coburn comparison has much validity. Elliott is in a stronger position than Coburn because of how many people have seen A Star is Born, as well as the extreme likelihood of that film receiving several nominations. |
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Post by Atrocity-Querelle on Jan 7, 2019 22:39:18 GMT
If Ali wins, then yes, it's over. If Elliott wins, that'll be a boon for his chances, I think. I'm getting 2007 vibes from this race lately, with Ali as the Blanchett analogue, Elliott as Ruby Dee with a penis, & Grant as the Swinton analogue. BAFTA was all she needed, so why not the same for Grant? The biggest hurdle he had was having his film be seen widely enough, and that's certainly no issue at this point. Hell, I am mulling over put it back into my BP predictions right now, and that'd be a really good indicator that he's on track to win. And I really, really do not see Elliott winning, even with SAG, btw. I always see him compared to Coburn in 1998, but that win was just a complete bizarro fluke, primarily motivated by AMPAS's seething hatred for poor Ed Harris. Seriously, what the fuck did he ever do to deserve getting raw-dogged by them so badly that year? Sheesh. I don't feel the Elliott and Coburn comparison has much validity. Elliott is in a stronger position than Coburn because of how many people have seen A Star is Born, as well as the extreme likelihood of that film receiving several nominations. I agree 100% that the comparison has always been silly, of course. Of all the winning scenarios that a proponent could bandy about, I've never been sure of what that one seems to get brought up, haha. I'd personally say that a comparison to someone like Hal Holbrook in 2007 or Josh Brolin in 2008 is more apt, and neither of those guys really came close to a win at all, which is what I think will happen with Elliott. I have him solidly in third, and I don't see him winning SAG, but if he did, I'd regard it as being the result of SAG's geriatric bias and his recent stints in TV giving him a boost of name recognition. But I don't think AMPAS will care much for those factors, the role/performance is more important with them lately in this category. And Grant and Ali are both much better suited to benefit from that trend, IMO. |
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 7, 2019 23:03:33 GMT
I don't feel the Elliott and Coburn comparison has much validity. Elliott is in a stronger position than Coburn because of how many people have seen A Star is Born, as well as the extreme likelihood of that film receiving several nominations. I agree 100% that the comparison has always been silly, of course. Of all the winning scenarios that a proponent could bandy about, I've never been sure of what that one seems to get brought up, haha. I'd personally say that a comparison to someone like Hal Holbrook in 2007 or Josh Brolin in 2008 is more apt, and neither of those guys really came close to a win at all, which is what I think will happen with Elliott. I have him solidly in third, and I don't see him winning SAG, but if he did, I'd regard it as being the result of SAG's geriatric bias and his recent stints in TV giving him a boost of name recognition. But I don't think AMPAS will care much for those factors, the role/performance is more important with them lately in this category. And Grant and Ali are both much better suited to benefit from that trend, IMO. Define "lately"?? Cuz Arkin and Plummer won for the same reasons that Elliot would. If he wins SAG, he's the Oscar frontrunner, imo. |
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Post by Atrocity-Querelle on Jan 7, 2019 23:20:24 GMT
I agree 100% that the comparison has always been silly, of course. Of all the winning scenarios that a proponent could bandy about, I've never been sure of what that one seems to get brought up, haha. I'd personally say that a comparison to someone like Hal Holbrook in 2007 or Josh Brolin in 2008 is more apt, and neither of those guys really came close to a win at all, which is what I think will happen with Elliott. I have him solidly in third, and I don't see him winning SAG, but if he did, I'd regard it as being the result of SAG's geriatric bias and his recent stints in TV giving him a boost of name recognition. But I don't think AMPAS will care much for those factors, the role/performance is more important with them lately in this category. And Grant and Ali are both much better suited to benefit from that trend, IMO. Define "lately"?? Cuz Arkin and Plummer won for the same reasons that Elliot would. If he wins SAG, he's the Oscar frontrunner, imo. Jared Leto, Mark Rylance, Christoph Waltz x 2, Mahershala Ali, and arguably even Sam Rockwell, who was never particularly on their radar and won because of the love for his performance more than his career overall... I say this as someone who utterly loathed him in Three Billboards. Career Oscars are still given, but you have to have some semblance of a meaty role to win one, I mean who would honestly argue that J.K. Simmons and Christian Bale didn't have enough material for the win, for example? Elliott's role is far less substantial than any of the recent career winners, and that is a mark against his chances. He's going up against two people with far meatier roles, in films that are also widely seen. If he did manage to squeak out a victory, it would be a very close call, he's not going to run away with it like Plummer did. It's just not that sort of a performance. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 7, 2019 23:27:18 GMT
If Ali wins it’s over. If Elliot does it will probably be one of those wide open acting races that happen every now and then. (Think Supporting Actor 2012 or Supporting Actress 2007)
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 7, 2019 23:54:28 GMT
Despite the fact that the GG clearly (bafflingly) loved Green Book, I think Ali winning was more of a course correction for him losing two years ago to Aaron Taylor-Johnson (  ), so I wouldn't start calling him a lock yet. The same could happen at the BAFTAs but I think they'll likely give the edge to Grant there unless he really loses hype. So I think SAG is the biggest indicator if Ali wins there again, any competition is likely out the window. I've been predicting Can You Ever Forgive Me? to get into BP most of the season, only getting slightly suspicious now, but sticking to my guns -- Grant isn't out of the race yet. |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 8, 2019 13:13:20 GMT
I really hope Elliott doesn't prevail at SAG. Ali is in a beloved movie but he won two years ago, and Grant is charming the circuit. Very close call.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 8, 2019 13:32:12 GMT
I dunno, this might be the most misunderstood category period. Where's the race? Elliott who does nothing and is nothing as an actor was declared the winner like 5 months ago in ASIB hysteria (I'm not putting him down, not saying he's a bad actor at all but........he's Sam Elliott not anyone who's ever put a dent into film ever); Grant is quite good but his film while I quite liked it and would be in MY top 10 is a minor and almost forgettable film overall (on the other hand, given the awful screenplays this year this looks like a lost Paddy Chayefsky classic script). Ali is genuinely great though - I mean that's a tremendous performance - and I'm saying that, and I hate everything - in a movie people love, not a cute performance or a very good one, it's major and it's arguably the performance of the year in a way too - I know I'll never forget that turn - and sure maybe its category fraud but that doesn't count against it - and he's got True Detective coming - his name will be everywhere. He wins again, and - gasp! - and he deserves it - seems obvious to me. |
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 8, 2019 16:14:13 GMT
I dunno, this might be the most misunderstood category period. Where's the race? Elliott who does nothing and is nothing as an actor was declared the winner like 5 months ago in ASIB hysteria (I'm not putting him down, not saying he's a bad actor at all but........he's Sam Elliott not anyone who's ever put a dent into film ever); Grant is quite good but his film while I quite liked it and would be in MY top 10 is a minor and almost forgettable film overall (on the other hand, given the awful screenplays this year this looks like a lost Paddy Chayefsky classic script). Ali is genuinely great though - I mean that's a tremendous performance - and I'm saying that, and I hate everything - in a movie people love, not a cute performance or a very good one, it's major and it's arguably the performance of the year in a way too - I know I'll never forget that turn - and sure maybe its category fraud but that doesn't count against it - and he's got True Detective coming - his name will be everywhere. He wins again, and - gasp! - and he deserves it - seems obvious to me. I agree with you on Elliott. I just don't get how he's declared as one of the frontrunners with such a muted, forgettable role. I mean, yeah, ASIB made a lot of money, but calm down. But I disagree on you that Ali's obviously winning. He could win a second Oscar two years after his first 'cause he's well-liked and it's a good performance, but I still think Grant is equally likely to win. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2019 16:28:30 GMT
I dunno, this might be the most misunderstood category period. Where's the race? Elliott who does nothing and is nothing as an actor was declared the winner like 5 months ago in ASIB hysteria (I'm not putting him down, not saying he's a bad actor at all but........he's Sam Elliott not anyone who's ever put a dent into film ever); Grant is quite good but his film while I quite liked it and would be in MY top 10 is a minor and almost forgettable film overall (on the other hand, given the awful screenplays this year this looks like a lost Paddy Chayefsky classic script). Ali is genuinely great though - I mean that's a tremendous performance - and I'm saying that, and I hate everything - in a movie people love, not a cute performance or a very good one, it's major and it's arguably the performance of the year in a way too - I know I'll never forget that turn - and sure maybe its category fraud but that doesn't count against it - and he's got True Detective coming - his name will be everywhere. He wins again, and - gasp! - and he deserves it - seems obvious to me. I agree with you on Elliott. I just don't get how he's declared as one of the frontrunners with such a muted, forgettable role. I mean, yeah, ASIB made a lot of money, but calm down. But I disagree on you that Ali's obviously winning. He could win a second Oscar two years after his first 'cause he's well-liked and it's a good performance, but I still think Grant is equally likely to win. Exactly. Ali won the Globe partly because they loved the movie, and partly because he didn't win it for Moonlight, and HFPA is notorious for giving out makeup prizes. Grant is the BAFTA frontrunner, his film is doing well (McCarthy and the screenplay, which were hitherto considered shaky, are secure), and SAG has only given one male actor (DDL) multiple prizes. |
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seronie
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Post by seronie on Jan 10, 2019 22:06:27 GMT
It's a bloody close call, both Grant and Ali have things going for and against them.
Ali is critically beyond dispute, his name is synonymous with Solid Supporting Actor right now the way Waltz was a few years ago. He's also in a popular feelgood movie, and one that coincides with a political advantage with movies that have progressive messages/content that challenges prejudices.
Against him is a recent Oscar win. How important this will be I cannot say. The Academy likes to spread the love, and Waltz won second time against also-won nominees. Also there is the minor scandal surrounding Green Book which won't be an issue.
Grant has been a popular character actor since the 80s, and there is the odd critic who will tell you Withnail is one of the all time great roles/performances. It's unsurprising to me he's romped the critic awards. I didnt expect him to, but I'm delighted.
He wrote a fantastic film diary, With Nails, about his industry experience from starting out to I think Pret a Porter or Dracula, and it's clear he's buddies with a large fraction of Hollywood stars, both in front of and behind the camera, many of whom are going to be Academy voters. On top of that I think it's telling he disappeared for a bit but then came right back doing the character actor thing he has been doing for decades, as if he'd never gone.
But, he is not American, and in a movie that isnt widely seen, especially in the UK which may hurt his momentum if he loses the Bafta (no done deal if you ask me). Ali also has True Detective on the way and whether its a season 1 or 2 he will be good in it.
I wonder if it largely rests on Academy voters making a pragmatic decision when they fill in their votes. 'Well Ali just won one vs. Hey it's the funny guy from Hudson Hawk and Withnail'.
I really hope Grant can do it.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 12, 2019 10:53:37 GMT
For the win? Most likely.
Though I dont see Ali winning 2 Oscars in such a short period.
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), so I wouldn't start calling him a lock yet. The same could happen at the BAFTAs but I think they'll likely give the edge to Grant there unless he really loses hype. So I think SAG is the biggest indicator if Ali wins there again, any competition is likely out the window. 
