Eddie Murphy as 'Dolemite' in Netflix pic

it's a biopic so....

Like I said, I am a little skeptical about De Niro's chances, and I'd still put him over Murphy. So they could both definitely miss. I don't think there are any sure things in this category yet, because almost everybody seems to have factors working against them and there are a ton of potential contenders.

As for Sandler, I'd be beyond shocked if he won. I think he's too much of a joke to just come in and win the first time he's in awards contention after all the junk he's done. We're not exactly talking about someone like McConaughey who did some good work before he started doing junk, and then started doing great work on a consistent basis until it culminated in a win. Literally all Sandler has as far as respected work goes is Punch-Drunk Love, and he got almost no traction for that. If you're just talking about him getting nominated, sure, he's got a shot, but I'd still put Murphy over him for now.

I know you love Murphy but wining an Oscar for this would be a very big surprise I think.

Judging by the trailers, Murphy is doing here what he's been doing in his whole career. Nothing special, nothing extraordinary or out of his comfort zone. His A-game? Maybe in Dreamgirls. Maybe in Mr. Church (which I loved). Not in this one. I wish, but I don't see it happening.

Of course Netflix will be pushing their 170 mil. Irishman for the Oscars, meaning De Niro. They'll probably push Driver (a front runner imo). But I don't see Murphy in there.  As I said recently, it's much easier for them to campaign for one or two films in each category and give it all they got, rather than pushing 5-6 films at the same time and just hope they'll score some nods.

With that in mind, Dolemite has to be a wonderful movie, very well received and Murphy doing his best work ever for this to win some Oscars.

I wouldn't say I'd be predicting Sandler for the win. The Dreamgirls comparison was more for the "comic veteran finally getting awards consideration", and remember: Murphy didn't win that year. It still remains to be seen if the Safdies will transition to mainstream success, but the critics are going to be eyeing the Good Time follow-up mighty hard.

Robert De Niro in a Scorsese movie after 24 years: "Meh, 20 years of onscreen lethargy, and he looks bored."
Eddie Murphy in another comedy: "Living legend giving a terrific performance!"

Sure, pal. Maybe some people are better off keeping a count of message board thread views.

Yeah, they would be stupid not too push The Irishman in any category that they can because of how much it cost them, and how it's the most anticipated film of the year just as Roma was last year, and that came very close to winning despite being in black and white and not in English. 

I agree with your ranking though. While I think De Niro has a good shot to be nominated just based on the fact that The Irishman is likely to get in for Best Picture, and usually Best Actor and Best Picture go together, at least at this point I'm not sure about him winning his third because I do think he could be overshadowed by his co-stars specifically Pacino and Pesci. 

I think that on paper at least Driver has the best shot of all the Netflix contenders to win because he'll also have The Report which he got good notices for already and Star Wars Episode IX all coming out about the same time. Plus Marriage Story seems like it will be nominated in Best Picture given the confidence that Netflix has in it, and could give Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, a run for its money in Original Screenplay. He also seems to be generally well liked in Hollywood as far as I know, and has won and been nominated across several different mediums. 

The only thing is that he's not playing a real life person, and his costar or costars could overshadow him. For the real life person thing though, aside from maybe Jonathan Pryce who will have his own struggles, I don't see a larger than life biopic role like Winston Churchill or Freddie Mercury which is very fortunate for Driver. 

I agree with you that Pryce is problem is just getting the nomination. I'm a bit concerned that I heard rumors that Netflix was going to take it to Venice too, which makes sense given the subject matter, and then they take The Laundromat instead. So maybe at best it's like a fourth or fifth priority for Netflix this year. I agree with TerryMontana that to me it makes more sense for Netflix to really push one or two films rather than trying to campaign for 5-6 films. 

I don't think Harvey back at his peak could balance that many films. I would say like 4 maybe, but I remember sometimes Miramax would have a partnership of some kind with another studio, so it's different than what Netflix is doing. Plus, love or hate his campaign style, but he probably would have got Netflix Best Picture nominations with Beasts of No Nation and Mudblood and maybe lead Roma to victory. Netflix seems to be getting better at it, but I'm still not 100% confident that they're going to be able to juggle so many films this year.

I think that The Laundromat is okay for Streep in whichever category she goes into because she's Streep, and I don't really think they need to do too much beyond what it seems like they're doing now. So I see that being a high priority for Streep and maybe screenplay, but probably nothing else. 

Obviously they're going to spend even more on The Irishman because it's their best chance to win Best Picture, and they've already invested so much into it already. 

If Marriage Story does well on the festival circuit, I think it remains Netflix's second push. I think it will do well, but Baumbach doesn't have the best track record with televised awards, so maybe it ends up being received like most of his other films in which case I would imagine that Netflix would then move onto Dolemite Is My Name or The Two Popes. Of those two, I don't know which one I'd give the edge. More people will probably want to see the former, but the latter was written by the person who has written screenplays for 3 recent Best Actor winners.

he should have scored nod for Bowfinger.

Don't forget that Netflix will push Murphy more because they want to pay him $70 million for some stand-up specials while they're not offering fellow stand-up comedy legends Adam Driver and Robert De Niro similar deals.

I know Netflix is throwing around money like it's candy, but tell me they aren't paying a guy whose last hit was... Norbit... $70M. 

I know you aren't a member of MENSA and I surely wouldn't overrate your intelligence, but you do realise how businesses work right? Incentives matter.

Murphy is someone they are incentivised to make happy because of clear business opportunities that Driver and DeNiro don't provide. This ain't rocket science.

No one is saying they won't push Driver or DeNiro, but I truly question the brain function of anyone who doesn't think Netflix being willing to pay  Murphy that much, doesn't suggest they'll do what is neccesary to keep the man happy in the immediate future. Like run a strong Best Actor campaign. It's called an incentive.

Someone has some work to do!