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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 11, 2017 12:23:28 GMT
Between 1980 and present day, ONLY nine films have won Best Picture without a screenplay win.
The Artist in 2011
Million Dollar Baby in 2004
Chicago in 2002
Gladiator in 2000
Titanic in 1997 (wasn't even nominated)
The English Patient in 1996
Braveheart in 1995
Unforgiven in 1992
Platoon in 1986
La La Land has already won the Globe and tied with Manchester at the Critics Choice. Seeing as how we think it's going to dominate in almost every category, why not screenplay? If it wins either the BAFTA or WGA, I wouldn't bet against it.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 12:24:35 GMT
It has no chance of winning
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Feb 11, 2017 15:35:51 GMT
I don't think anyone who takes a reasonable interest in the awards race really thinks it has a chance.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 16:56:38 GMT
Who's predicting that?
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 11, 2017 17:00:19 GMT
Gold Derby is pretty split on it, but leaning toward Manchester. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 17:53:28 GMT
Gold Derby is pretty split on it, but leaning toward Manchester. IDK then. I'm pretty sure it's either gonna be La La Land or Moonlight. |
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Feb 11, 2017 17:54:54 GMT
Gold Derby is pretty split on it, but leaning toward Manchester. IDK then. I'm pretty sure it's either gonna be La La Land or Moonlight. Moonlight's nominated in Adapted. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 17:56:22 GMT
IDK then. I'm pretty sure it's either gonna be La La Land or Moonlight. Moonlight's nominated in Adapted. My bad. Then I'm going all in for La La Land. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2017 18:04:41 GMT
Manchester is pretty screenplay centric, unlike La La Land. And notice the only musical BP winner(s arguably, considering what you consider The Artist) in the last 20 years, as you listed, wasn't a screenplay winner. This category just isn't for them.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Feb 11, 2017 18:11:51 GMT
I think La La Land is the screenplay frontrunner right now and will be pending BAFTA. WGA is important, but I could see the writers branch being the odd ones out in having more support for Manchester by the Sea while La La Land has the greater broad appeal to give it the edge for the Oscar. Manchester is in the thick of it, though, and I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if Hell or High Water won it at the Oscars.
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Post by pendragon on Feb 11, 2017 18:24:28 GMT
It's been mentioned that the last musical to win was Gigi. Even West Side Story, which won 10 Oscars, lost here (it was the only one it failed to win). I'm sill predicting La La Land, but it's an interesting point to consider.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 11, 2017 19:55:18 GMT
It's been mentioned that the last musical to win was Gigi. Even West Side Story, which won 10 Oscars, lost here (it was the only one it failed to win). I'm sill predicting La La Land, but it's an interesting point to consider.The following musicals have won Best Picture: Chicago (2002) Oliver! (1968) The Sound Of Music (1965) My Fair Lady (1964) West Side Story (1961) Gigi (1958) - Won Screenplay An American In Paris (1951) - Won for screenplay Going My Way (1944) - Won for screenplay The Great Ziegfeld (1936) - The Broadway Melody (1929) My argument is so what. It's not that a Musical has never won best picture and best screenplay, it's just that in the rare incidents a musical won, the screenplay comes along for the ride. If the WGA or BAFTAs picks La La Land, I cannot see why you wouldn't predict LLL for best original screenplay. It would have won at least 3 major screenplay awards. |
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Feb 12, 2017 1:02:59 GMT
Probably because Manchester is much more reliant on his script then La-La Land, I'm still predicting LLL for the win though.
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Post by pendragon on Feb 12, 2017 2:26:17 GMT
It's been mentioned that the last musical to win was Gigi. Even West Side Story, which won 10 Oscars, lost here (it was the only one it failed to win). I'm sill predicting La La Land, but it's an interesting point to consider.The following musicals have won Best Picture: Chicago (2002) Oliver! (1968) The Sound Of Music (1965) My Fair Lady (1964) West Side Story (1961) Gigi (1958) - Won Screenplay An American In Paris (1951) - Won for screenplay Going My Way (1944) - Won for screenplay The Great Ziegfeld (1936) - The Broadway Melody (1929) My argument is so what. It's not that a Musical has never won best picture and best screenplay, it's just that in the rare incidents a musical won, the screenplay comes along for the ride. If the WGA or BAFTAs picks La La Land, I cannot see why you wouldn't predict LLL for best original screenplay. It would have won at least 3 major screenplay awards. My point was that of the 10 musicals that won Best Picture, only 3 won Screenplay and the last one was nearly 60 years ago. Even big sweepers like West Side Story and My Fair Lady lost. La La Land will probably win, but I just thought I'd raise the point that there would be precedent for it losing, even if it wins almost everything else. |
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Post by stephen on Feb 17, 2017 15:17:21 GMT
Manchester by the Sea winning a Screenplay Oscar feels like something of a consolation prize for the film. It's their way to reward Lonergan, just as Moonlight in Adapted is their way to recognize Jenkins. La La Land isn't a film that relies so heavily on its screenplay (one could argue that the music and lyrics are its true script, and those are being rewarded), so going by previous trends so religiously isn't the best idea. I think it has a chance to win, but I think the Academy's going to spread the love a bit.
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