|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Feb 25, 2024 22:05:08 GMT
Best Original Screenplay Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari The Holdovers – David Hemingson Maestro – Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer May December – Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik Past Lives – Celine Song We can safely eliminate Maestro and May December from discussion. Maestro has won zero major awards this year, and didn't even get nominated at the WGA awards. May December is a single Oscar nominee. Those never win.
Anatomy of a Fall won the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay and the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay. It also won Screenplay of the Year at the London Film Critics awards, and tied with Past Lives at the Kansas City Film Critics awards.
The Holdovers took home the Boston Film Critics, Dallas Fort-Worth, and NBR screenplay trophies.
Best Adapted Screenplay American Fiction – Cord Jefferson; based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett Barbie – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach; based on characters created by Ruth Handler Oppenheimer – Christopher Nolan; based on the biography American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin Poor Things – Tony McNamara; based on the novel by Alasdair Gray The Zone of Interest – Jonathan Glazer; based on the novel by Martin Amis
American Fiction triumphed at the Critics Choice and BAFTA awards for adapted screenplay. Barbie won at Critics Choice, but it was under original screenplay. We saw The Zone of Interest winning at the Boston Film Critics awards, and Poor Things taking NBR. Oppenheimer didn't win any major screenplay awards, but its momentum is pretty high right now. This is the only category, where it hasn't been sweeping.
There has been only two films this century to win a screenplay Oscar without winning Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or WGA. They were The Pianist and Precious. The Pianist won Best Film and Best Director at the BAFTA awards. Precious swept the supporting actress category that year.
Who are we banking on?
|
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 25, 2024 22:13:44 GMT
Anatomy is the clear favorite in original. Barbie's category placement might've screwed its chances given how divisive that decision was. On one hand there might be enough people who want to award it anyways, but I can imagine some voters won't vote for it in adapted because they think it's in the wrong category... that messiness makes way for Fiction which has already been showing strength here.
I'm going Anatomy of a Fall / American Fiction
|
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Feb 26, 2024 0:32:04 GMT
Anatomy of a Fiction & American Fall
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Feb 26, 2024 1:36:42 GMT
It could very well just be Anatomy/ American Fiction but I have a feeling these categories are less predictable than people are making them out to be. No WGA and Barbie flipping categories have made this a unique year.
|
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Feb 28, 2024 5:24:53 GMT
Predicting American Fiction does make sense given its BAFTA win, but I think I’ll still go with Oppenheimer here.
Stolen from AW:
Of the films from the last 20 years that won PGA/DGA/SAG and went on to win BP at the Oscars (EEAAO, Birdman, Argo, The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Return of the King, Chicago), only Chicago didn't win screenplay... and I get the sense that Oppenheimer is not going to be viewed on the same level as a musical lol.
Of course, all of those outside of Birdman and Argo actually won screenplay at BAFTA... but it’s interesting how the only time in the last 10+ years that BAFTA awarded the same film Picture, Director, and Screenplay was last year (and the adapted category last year was one of the weakest ever, with the eventual Oscar winner not even nominated at BAFTA).
It just seems very likely to me that voters will have no problem adding this to Oppenheimer’s haul given how dialogue-driven the screenplay is and the fact that it’s already set to be the biggest sweep since Slumdog.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pavan on Feb 28, 2024 8:49:56 GMT
I have seen American Fiction and I still think Oppenheimer's taking adapted.
|
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Feb 28, 2024 9:00:52 GMT
That American Fiction BAFTA win told me everything I needed to know. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t win. It’s also such writing bait.
Anatomy of a Fall should take Original pretty easily at this point.
|
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Feb 28, 2024 20:37:51 GMT
That American Fiction BAFTA win told me everything I needed to know. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t win. Would it really be that much of a shock if the PGA/DGA/SAG-winning film that's getting multiple acting Oscars and tech awards AND is also wall-to-wall dialogue wins this category too? |
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Feb 28, 2024 21:23:43 GMT
That American Fiction BAFTA win told me everything I needed to know. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t win. Would it really be that much of a shock if the PGA/DGA/SAG-winning film that's getting multiple acting Oscars and tech awards AND is also wall-to-wall dialogue wins this category too? I’d be shocked if it wins without a BAFTA win. |
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Feb 28, 2024 22:08:26 GMT
Would it really be that much of a shock if the PGA/DGA/SAG-winning film that's getting multiple acting Oscars and tech awards AND is also wall-to-wall dialogue wins this category too? I’d be shocked if it wins without a BAFTA win. Films that won screenplay (original or adapted) without a BAFTA win in the last decade: Women Talking, EEAAO, Belfast, Green Book, Get Out, Birdman, The Imitation Game, Her, 12 Years a Slave, Argo So yeah, it wouldn't be that surprising, especially with how strong the film is overall. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Feb 28, 2024 23:41:53 GMT
Predicting American Fiction does make sense given its BAFTA win, but I think I’ll still go with Oppenheimer here. Stolen from AW: Of the films from the last 20 years that won PGA/DGA/SAG and went on to win BP at the Oscars (EEAAO, Birdman, Argo, The King's Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, Return of the King, Chicago), only Chicago didn't win screenplay... and I get the sense that Oppenheimer is not going to be viewed on the same level as a musical lol. Of course, all of those outside of Birdman and Argo actually won screenplay at BAFTA... but it’s interesting how the only time in the last 10+ years that BAFTA awarded the same film Picture, Director, and Screenplay was last year (and the adapted category last year was one of the weakest ever, with the eventual Oscar winner not even nominated at BAFTA). It just seems very likely to me that voters will have no problem adding this to Oppenheimer’s haul given how dialogue-driven the screenplay is and the fact that it’s already set to be the biggest sweep since Slumdog. There have been only two films to win the Guild Triple Crown (PGA, DGA, SAGE) and lose for Best Screenplay: Apollo 13 and Chicago.
Oppenheimer didn't win the Globe, Critics Choice, or BAFTA. Despite all its wins in the acting, directing, editing, and technical categories, screenplay is the category where it keeps on coming up short. The only time it really won a notable screenplay award was at the Southeastern Film Critics Association, one of the ten oldest film critic groups. We will see what happens on Saturday with the USC Scripter awards and the Satellite awards.
Birdman was not eligible for the WGA awards, and already took home the Globe and Critics Choice.
As I have mentioned before, the Toronto winner typically takes home at least one Oscar. Screenplay seems to be American Fiction's only big pathway to victory.
But here's the big problem: We will not know who will win the WGA until a month after the Oscars. You really have to play projection. Would the WGA really pick Oppy over a film about a writer in mid-life crisis?
Also, I am not sure if I understand this dialogue heavy claim is accurate. From my viewing on the film, everything is underplayed. Nolan's film is about subtlety and using character facial expression.
|
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Feb 29, 2024 0:02:15 GMT
Also, I am not sure if I understand this dialogue heavy claim is accurate. From my viewing on the film, everybody is underplayed. Nolan's film is about subtlety and using character facial expression.
I mean, the movie is 3 hours of pretty much non-stop talking. |
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Feb 29, 2024 0:07:20 GMT
Also, I am not sure if I understand this dialogue heavy claim is accurate.
 |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Feb 29, 2024 0:34:47 GMT
Also, I am not sure if I understand this dialogue heavy claim is accurate. From my viewing on the film, everything is underplayed. Nolan's film is about subtlety and using character facial expression.
I mean, the movie is 3 hours of pretty much non-stop talking. Maybe you guys have seen the film multiple times, but I don't necessary think the screenplay was the star of the picture. The female characters are underdeveloped. But my main point here is that Oppy hasn't been winning any major screenplay awards this season. American Fiction beat out Oppy at the Critics Choice and BAFTA awards. |
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Feb 29, 2024 0:44:03 GMT
I mean, the movie is 3 hours of pretty much non-stop talking. Maybe you guys have seen the film multiple times, but I don't necessary think the screenplay was the star of the picture. The female characters are underdeveloped. But my main point here is that Oppy hasn't been winning any major screenplay awards this season. American Fiction beat out Oppy at the Critics Choice and BAFTA awards. I don’t necessarily think the screenplay is the star of the movie either, but I don’t think it requires multiple viewings to see how reliant on dialogue the movie is. Regardless of how underdeveloped you think certain characters were, the movie is still a bunch of people chattering at each other in rooms for 3 hours. Obviously a screenplay is more than just dialogue but it’s definitely the sort of thing that appeals to voters in this category (similar to how best editing often goes to the movie with the “most” editing). |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Feb 29, 2024 0:58:15 GMT
Maybe you guys have seen the film multiple times, but I don't necessary think the screenplay was the star of the picture. The female characters are underdeveloped. But my main point here is that Oppy hasn't been winning any major screenplay awards this season. American Fiction beat out Oppy at the Critics Choice and BAFTA awards. I don’t necessarily think the screenplay is the star of the movie either, but I don’t think it requires multiple viewings to see how reliant on dialogue the movie is. Regardless of how underdeveloped you think certain characters were, the movie is still a bunch of people chattering at each other in rooms for 3 hours. Obviously a screenplay is more than just dialogue but it’s definitely the sort of thing that appeals to voters in this category (similar to how best editing often goes to the movie with the “most” editing). Pretty much all movies are about people chattering. That doesn't make it an Oscar-winning screenplay. The precursor awards have consistently gone to other scripts. That's my main point. We have seen plenty of directing, acting, editing, and technical awards, but the screenplay has been the one left out. You have yet to dispute my main argument.
The virtue of Oppenheimer is how much Nolan underplays everything. The performances are very subtle and rely on facial expressions and body motions to get their point across. I think it is brilliant how Nolan puts together the picture.
|
|
rhodoraonline
Badass
Your Generosity Hides Something Dirtier and Meaner
Posts: 1,027 
Likes: 506
|
Post by rhodoraonline on Feb 29, 2024 1:05:46 GMT
Oppenheimer is clearly the best adaptation but the reason why I feel American Fiction could take it is the Academy's wish to recognize it some way and the adaptation for that IS brilliant in the way it handles both its comedy and its drama.
Anatomy is the runaway win in Original. Barbie may not win anything at all come Oscars. We should brace ourselves for the inevitable backlash lol
|
|
Steve17
Badass
Posts: 1,079 
Likes: 224
|
Post by Steve17 on Feb 29, 2024 1:56:19 GMT
I picked the popular choice, almost went The Holdovers for original.
|
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Feb 29, 2024 2:44:47 GMT
I don’t necessarily think the screenplay is the star of the movie either, but I don’t think it requires multiple viewings to see how reliant on dialogue the movie is. Regardless of how underdeveloped you think certain characters were, the movie is still a bunch of people chattering at each other in rooms for 3 hours. Obviously a screenplay is more than just dialogue but it’s definitely the sort of thing that appeals to voters in this category (similar to how best editing often goes to the movie with the “most” editing). Pretty much all movies are about people chattering. That doesn't make it an Oscar-winning screenplay. The precursor awards have consistently gone to other scripts. That's my main point. We have seen plenty of directing, acting, editing, and technical awards, but the screenplay has been the one left out. You have yet to dispute my main argument.
The virtue of Oppenheimer is how much Nolan underplays everything. The performances are very subtle and rely on facial expressions and body motions to get their point across. I think it is brilliant how Nolan puts together the picture.
“Pretty much all movies are about people chattering” - right, because a Tarantino movie is totally equivalent to a Terrence Malick movie in that respect…. come on now, you’re grossly understating how dialogue is the primary engine of Oppenheimer in a way that many people (on this board and elsewhere) have gone out of their way to highlight. And it’s not just the fact that the film is particularly dialogue heavy, but also the snappy, rat-a-tat rhythmic nature of the dialogue that I’ve seen people compare to an Aaron Sorkin script. I’m not “disputing” anything… I get why someone would predict American Fiction here, I’m just giving reasons why I don’t think Oppenheimer winning here would be surprising in the least. I’m aware of the precursors, but I’m still predicting Oppenheimer because of everything I said in my first post in this thread, plus the fact that you pointed out that only two films that won the top 3 guild awards have lost screenplay. |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Feb 29, 2024 3:01:31 GMT
Pretty much all movies are about people chattering. That doesn't make it an Oscar-winning screenplay. The precursor awards have consistently gone to other scripts. That's my main point. We have seen plenty of directing, acting, editing, and technical awards, but the screenplay has been the one left out. You have yet to dispute my main argument.
The virtue of Oppenheimer is how much Nolan underplays everything. The performances are very subtle and rely on facial expressions and body motions to get their point across. I think it is brilliant how Nolan puts together the picture.
“Pretty much all movies are about people chattering” - right, because a Tarantino movie is totally equivalent to a Terrence Malick movie in that respect…. come on now, you’re grossly understating how dialogue is the primary engine of Oppenheimer in a way that many people (on this board and elsewhere) have gone out of their way to highlight. And it’s not just the fact that the film is particularly dialogue heavy, but also the snappy, rat-a-tat rhythmic nature of the dialogue that I’ve seen people compare to an Aaron Sorkin script. I’m not “disputing” anything… I get why someone would predict American Fiction here, I’m just giving reasons why I don’t think Oppenheimer winning here would be surprising in the least. I’m aware of the precursors, but I’m still predicting Oppenheimer because of everything I said in my first post in this thread, plus the fact that you pointed out that only two films that won the top 3 guild awards have lost screenplay. I am going with AF for adapted, but Oppy is my #2. The problem with Oppy winning screenplay is lack of evidence, it has the ability to win a competitive screenplay award. AF makes sense due to its subject matter and blending of comedy and drama together. If people are predicting Oppy for screenplay, then they are under the belief, it will win the WGA. |
|
