Will Denzel match/break Nicholson's acting nomination count?

As long as he stays in good health (and that is the key) or doesn't decide to suddenly quit acting, Nicholson's record is gone. I think he hits 13. AMPAS, more than with any working actor,  seriously considers him for any remotely baity seeming role/project, so even though Antoine Fuqua isn't a baity director ( Training Day excepted) the character and storyline of Hannibal is definitely baity enough to make that another potential nomination on the horizon. He could potentially be on 11 nods within the next 2-3 years. 

Now after age 70, he's got to slow down on the genre action films, or stop them altogether . Which means him doing more meditative, baity character studies/dramas about old guys. Things like The Verdict. Maybe another role in an August Wilson adaptation. Or a filmed version of King Lear.  The type of things that could easily net him nominations. I think he'll start baiting more simply as a consequence of his age, and having to do less physical movies. And once he also gets around to working with more baity auteurs like PTA or Steve McQueen, it's a wrap.

I think all three will match, and at least one will surpass.  Nicholson seems awfully self-satisfied there.  He's "accomplished his legacy" in his eyes.  Posterity is a foreign concept.  

Nah, no way, Washington is nearing 70 and he's at 9 nominations.

Maybe another one and that's it.

Yes. Denzel has a serious chance of getting his 10th nomination for Gladiator 2 this time next year if Ridley can deliver. Perhaps even if the film doesn’t deliver, because his role does sound sizable and baity on its own, plus its the freshness of seeing him in an ancient swords and sandals type film which he’s never done that could entice voters.

If he does get to 10 with that film, he definitely can get to at least 2 more nominations in his 70s to tie Nicholson, and probably more than that.

If I was being a sarcastic smart-ass (moi?) I'd say you JUST said this to me yesterday :

"This time last year, people were saying there was no way DiCaprio was missing for Scorsese's largest budget film."

It certainly is possible but it is not  in any way remotely "inevitable" - inevitable is a discernible pattern that can be replicated - ie getting to 10, 11 even - not an entirely new pattern  of 12+  -    not saying you're wrong - it could happen - but that's really the wrong word to use.......that's hyperbole tbh

Who do you think is more likely to get a nod next - DiCap, Washington or both  equally?  Answer carefully .............this post will be checked in a year and followed up on  

This isn't really the point though -  Ridley Scott hasn't delivered Oscar nods for actors in 20 years mostly (I think just 2 in 20 years off the top of my head?) and PTA often does .......... though not for Licorice Pizza........

There's a "playing the percentages logic" I think you're missing in favor ofwhat I called hyperbole - but fair enough - we'll see how it plays out .....like I said both scenarios are possble - 4 Washington nods post-70 ; 7 DiCaprio nods post-50...........but I still think Jack's achievement is being disrespected in all of our ruminations.........

Napoleon still got 3 Oscar nominations, with so-so reviews. Below the line nods, but so what? Imagine if the reviews were actually good. Then it's an easy Best Picture contender.That's the power of Ridley Scott. Anything he does has to be considered a potential Oscar contender, above or below the line. House Of Gucci missed at the Oscars (except for make-up and hair) yet it got Best British Film and Best Actress nods at BAFTA....so it was a serious contender, despite again, so--so reviews.

For me the only reason The Last Duel didn't do anything at the Oscars was because it's box office was so catastrophically bad. Quality wise (and review wise) it's one of his best films in years, and had it done even respectable box office, I think it'd have done well across the board at the Oscars ( a Jodie Comer nomination etc).

So yeah, Ridley is still a force to be reckoned with and is always in play as a prestige filmmaker. Combine that with the first  Gladiator film being a Best Picture winner,  an Oscar magnet like Denzel in it and a critically respected, also Oscar nominated young lead like Paul Mescal, it has as good a chance as any Ridley film to be an awards season player, and there is an expectation there. No one has a crystal ball. It could disappoint or it could do well across the board. That's why we wait for the films to come out

3 in 20 years, and Gaga (and Leto) got very close and likely only missed because her campaign was fucking insufferable, so it's not like AMPAS hates his actors or anything. 

True - I'm just saying there's a thread where people are saying DiCaprio has hit a wall - and I'm saying if I was betting - which I might because I bet too much and have several addictions   - I'm more likely to bet on him knocking down that  wall - with the guy who has better luck in that regard rather than Ridley Scott does - and I love Ridley Scott .............ymmv 

My point is that for me neither Washington or DiCap are in a particularly "good" position to pass Nicholson........but nominations for each of their next movies are key for them to have a shot........

Corrections noted and changed in my post, thanks. My points still stand though.