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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 21, 2024 22:02:09 GMT
I'm not talking longshots or dark horses, I'm talking the precursor-less picks no one sees coming. Lakeith Stanfield for Judas, Judi Dench for Belfast, The Worst Person in the World for screenplay, Never Look Away for cinematography, Marina de Tavira, etc. The voters give us at least a couple of these every year to keep things interesting so what are some totally left-field NGNG gut instinct picks not on anyone's radar you could see happening this Tuesday morning?I'll start! Having just finished Society of the Snow, I'm gonna say surprise noms for Best Picture, Best Director or Best Adapted Screenplay wouldn't shock me, especially if it can get a decent tech haul. The ending packs a serious punch and it's the kind of impressively mounted and harrowing but inspirational true story that manages to be accessible despite a punishing length and disturbing material. Also Boy and the Heron for Original Screenplay. There's a few scripts competing for that 5th slot and Heron supposedly being Miyazaki's swan song might drive voters to celebrate it beyond animated feature (and score! *fingers crossed*) shout 'em out!
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Post by futuretrunks on Jan 21, 2024 22:32:21 GMT
Not really sure. I think there's a decent chance Blunt doesn't get nominated.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 21, 2024 23:32:03 GMT
Dench and TWPITW weren't that surprising, but I digress.
I honestly don't see anything too crazy happening this year.
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wonky
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Post by wonky on Jan 22, 2024 1:11:29 GMT
Maybe Florence Pugh
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 22, 2024 1:41:16 GMT
Claire Foy
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Post by Kings_Requiem on Jan 22, 2024 2:48:41 GMT
Well, it's not out of left field, but it would cause chaos on this board... Maestro over-performs and gets in everywhere including Best Director for MA's resident whipping boy Bradley Cooper.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 22, 2024 3:31:21 GMT
Dominic Sessa if he counts.
Total NGNG? The Iron Claw for BP
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 22, 2024 3:58:05 GMT
Someone from Iron Claw gets in for acting
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Post by Martin Stett on Jan 22, 2024 5:09:31 GMT
Sound of Freedom gets nominated for best picture and best actor and Hollywood boycotts its own awards ceremony
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tylosaur
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Post by tylosaur on Jan 22, 2024 21:00:51 GMT
Ellis-Taylor and Barrino in OVER Robbie & Huller OR Ellis-Taylor in OVER Gladstone ---------- Either Frances Fisher Best Actress reign of terror would come full circle: it'll drive everyone insane, ratcheting up the negative discourse a million notches.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 23, 2024 5:12:53 GMT
Combined chaotic/cynical prediction: Oppenheimer actually ends up as the double Supporting Actor nominated film when Matt Damon randomly takes Mark Ruffalo's spot.
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Post by michael128 on Jan 23, 2024 5:28:25 GMT
Lily Gladstone in supporting
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Jan 23, 2024 11:59:22 GMT
Major Directing Snub One top 3 contender will underperform Barbie performs better than in any other group
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havok2
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Post by havok2 on Jan 23, 2024 12:01:07 GMT
Brendan fraser i. Supporting
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tylosaur
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Post by tylosaur on Jan 23, 2024 12:06:52 GMT
Matt Damon (Oppenheimer) supporting actor nomination. Didn't have the stones to predict it in my predictions but these out-of-the-blue-no-precursor nominations usually come from one of the big overall contenders.
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Post by stephen on Jan 23, 2024 12:10:28 GMT
Ellis-Taylor in OVER Gladstone If this happens, and Fisher tries to course-correct after last year to make herself look better by boosting the chances of a minority filmmaker/actress only to get another minority actress knocked out, I will be even more excited for the inevitable film adaptation of this whole saga.
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tylosaur
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Post by tylosaur on Jan 23, 2024 12:18:32 GMT
Ellis-Taylor in OVER Gladstone If this happens, and Fisher tries to course-correct after last year to make herself look better by boosting the chances of a minority filmmaker/actress only to get another minority actress knocked out, I will be even more excited for the inevitable film adaptation of this whole saga. The film is a hit, snags multiple Oscar nominations but the Actress playing Fisher misses out on a nomination despite hitting nods in all the majors.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 23, 2024 12:20:28 GMT
Combined chaotic/cynical prediction: Oppenheimer actually ends up as the double Supporting Actor nominated film when Matt Damon randomly takes Mark Ruffalo's spot. I've considered the same option while thinking about how Oppenheimer could get 14 nominations and join Titanic, La La Land and All About Eve as the most nominated movie ever (stupid VFX branch). I'm predicting it for 13 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Score, Costume Design, Sound, Makeup) and the only way it can get to 14 is via Damon... which doesn't seem entirely impossible. Nolan should've asked Diane Warren to scribble a song for Oppy to make things easier.
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Post by stephen on Jan 23, 2024 12:23:54 GMT
Combined chaotic/cynical prediction: Oppenheimer actually ends up as the double Supporting Actor nominated film when Matt Damon randomly takes Mark Ruffalo's spot. I've considered the same option while thinking about how Oppenheimer could get 14 nominations and join Titanic, La La Land and All About Eve as the most nominated movie ever (stupid VFX branch). I'm predicting it for 13 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Score, Costume Design, Sound, Makeup) and the only way it can get to 14 is via Damon... which doesn't seem entirely impossible. Nolan should've asked Diane Warren to scribble a song for Oppy to make things easier. Not me thinking it still blanks on Makeup.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 23, 2024 12:25:55 GMT
I've considered the same option while thinking about how Oppenheimer could get 14 nominations and join Titanic, La La Land and All About Eve as the most nominated movie ever (stupid VFX branch). I'm predicting it for 13 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Score, Costume Design, Sound, Makeup) and the only way it can get to 14 is via Damon... which doesn't seem entirely impossible. Nolan should've asked Diane Warren to scribble a song for Oppy to make things easier. Not me thinking it still blanks on Makeup. I can see that. I can see it missing Costumes too. Maybe even Blunt if we're in chaos land.
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Post by stephen on Jan 23, 2024 12:28:38 GMT
Not me thinking it still blanks on Makeup. I can see that. I can see it missing Costumes too. Maybe even Blunt if we're in chaos land. Frankly, if someone who's hit all the precursors misses today, Blunt is one of the likelier options. They've not gone for her when she's been more of a contender in other things (granted, nothing she's done has had the clout of Oppenheimer till now), but Supporting Actress is such a clusterfuck that only Randolph feels like she's safe.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 23, 2024 15:55:26 GMT
Laura Karpman was the chaos pick this year. I haven't heard anyone single out American Fiction's score. Is it good?
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 23, 2024 17:12:15 GMT
Surprisingly, no real chaos besides Ferrera.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 24, 2024 1:55:36 GMT
Surprisingly, no real chaos besides Ferrera. yeah pretty boring. Ferrera wasn't even that chaotic because she did keep popping up in the early race and got that Globe nod. Most weren't predicting her but she was still in the convo. The surprises were mostly in the tech fields.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 24, 2024 1:59:17 GMT
Laura Karpman was the chaos pick this year. I haven't heard anyone single out American Fiction's score. Is it good? No.
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