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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 16, 2024 2:25:21 GMT
In the last ten years, SAG Best Supporting Actor and Oscar Best Supporting Actor nominees have lined up 34 out of 50 times. That's an average of 3/5. Last year, SAG went 3/5 for Best Supporting Actor. The year before that, they went 2/5. We haven't seen a perfect match since 2014.
The Critics Choice awards have been the most accurate in predicting the Best Supporting Actor nominees as of late. They went 5/5 in 2022, 4/5 in 2021 & 2020, 5/5 in 2019, and 4/5 in 2018.
SAG NOMINEES Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
Willem Dafoe - Poor Things
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Dafoe is the only SAG nominee without a Critics Choice nomination. Downey Jr won the Globe and Critics Choice Best Supporting Actor trophy. Charles Melton for May December and Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things scored Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations, but no SAG nomination. Melton won the NY Film Critics and the National Society of Film Critics Best Supporting Actor award. Ruffalo took home the National Board of Review prize.
Ben Whishaw for Passages, Dominic Sessa for The Holdovers, Jacob Elordi for Saltburn, and Jamie Bell & Paul Mescal for All of Us Strangers made the BAFTA Long List. I will throw into the mix Glenn Howerton for Blackberry for fun. He did make the Chicago Film Critics Best Supporting Actor list and landed a Spirit Award nomination for Best Supporting Performance.
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Post by stephen on Jan 16, 2024 2:26:25 GMT
Dafoe, De Niro, Downey, Jr., Gosling, Ruffalo.
Could see a shakeup at BAFTA but that five feels good right now.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 16, 2024 2:29:12 GMT
RDJ
DeNiro
Gosling
Ruffalo
Dafoe
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 16, 2024 2:31:20 GMT
Ruffalo replaces Brown
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 16, 2024 2:33:36 GMT
Dafoe, De Niro, Downey, Jr., Gosling, Ruffalo. Could see a shakeup at BAFTA but that five feels good right now. I am torn between Brown and Dafoe for that last spot. I am pretty confident with the triple Rs. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 16, 2024 2:34:48 GMT
Downey
Gosling
De Niro
Seem pretty safe.
Then I say Poor Things doubles up, which is becoming a trend in supporting actor at this point...after that considerable gap between Bugsy and Three Billboards.
Brown I think got in SAG via general goodwill, and he's been recognized by SAG often enough in TV, which we've seen be a thing before. I think his role is a little too minor relatively to get the #1 votes compared to rest of the potential nominees. Melton definitely could pull a Henry, though it's seeming less and less likely. Sessa I think could get in if Holdovers performs to its apex, and if he does maybe it becomes the potential spoiler in Best picture.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 16, 2024 3:01:21 GMT
The original 5: RDJ, Gosling, De Niro, Ruffalo, Melton.
I think Melton is still in because Moore and Portman are out there campaigning their asses off.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 16, 2024 3:36:14 GMT
The original 5: RDJ, Gosling, De Niro, Ruffalo, Melton. I think Melton is still in because Moore and Portman are out there campaigning their asses off. So are the Holdovers trio, Sessa is above Melton at this point. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 16, 2024 4:32:56 GMT
The original 5: RDJ, Gosling, De Niro, Ruffalo, Melton. I think Melton is still in because Moore and Portman are out there campaigning their asses off. So are the Holdovers trio, Sessa is above Melton at this point. Probably, but Sessa is much younger, and Melton won NY and NSFC. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 16, 2024 5:45:22 GMT
So are the Holdovers trio, Sessa is above Melton at this point. Probably, but Sessa is much younger, and Melton won NY and NSFC. Who cares about age, Sessa is the same age Hedges was when he got nominated. Cool, Hawke won all 3 and still missed. Sessa is in a much stronger film. (For the record, I don't think either of them make it, but I have Sessa 6th and Melton 8th. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 16, 2024 6:25:44 GMT
Probably, but Sessa is much younger, and Melton won NY and NSFC. Who cares about age, Sessa is the same age Hedges was when he got nominated. Cool, Hawke won all 3 and still missed. Sessa is in a much stronger film. And Cruz, Cotillard, and Rampling had nothing and got in with only NY/LA and NSFC. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 16, 2024 11:11:26 GMT
Who cares about age, Sessa is the same age Hedges was when he got nominated. Cool, Hawke won all 3 and still missed. Sessa is in a much stronger film. And Cruz, Cotillard, and Rampling had nothing and got in with only NY/LA and NSFC. Oh not this again. You used those examples last year to try and convince us that Krieps was making it. And now you're comparing them to Melton?!  |
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 16, 2024 11:40:17 GMT
And Cruz, Cotillard, and Rampling had nothing and got in with only NY/LA and NSFC. Oh not this again. You used those examples last year to try and convince us that Krieps was making it. And now you're comparing them to Melton?! That was super early in the season. Can you just accept that you and I have different predictions about something totally irrelevant and grow the fuck up? Why are you so fucking obsessed with who I want to predict? Get a fucking life you simp. |
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Post by JangoB on Jan 16, 2024 13:13:15 GMT
1. Downey Jr.
2. Gosling
3. De Niro
4. Dafoe
5. Ruffalo
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 16, 2024 13:28:21 GMT
Oh not this again. You used those examples last year to try and convince us that Krieps was making it. And now you're comparing them to Melton?! That was super early in the season. Can you just accept that you and I have different predictions about something totally irrelevant and grow the fuck up? Why are you so fucking obsessed with who I want to predict? Get a fucking life you simp. The last few days of December is not 'super early', but whatever. You clearly have trouble engaging in conversation with people who are able to make valid points, and critique your logic. I'll just go discuss my beloved awards season with people who enjoy a spirited and at least somewhat informed back and forth, and don't flip out as soon as someone starts poking a few holes in their logic  |
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 16, 2024 15:00:56 GMT
That was super early in the season. Can you just accept that you and I have different predictions about something totally irrelevant and grow the fuck up? Why are you so fucking obsessed with who I want to predict? Get a fucking life you simp. The last few days of December is not 'super early', but whatever. You clearly have trouble engaging in conversation with people who are able to make valid points, and critique your logic. I'll just go discuss my beloved awards season with people who enjoy a spirited and at least somewhat informed back and forth, and don't flip out as soon as someone starts poking a few holes in their logic |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 18, 2024 16:52:53 GMT
RDJ DeNiro Gosling Ruffalo Dafoe I’m thinking there will be a major surprise here. Think Sessa gets in over one of the Poor Things guys |
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 18, 2024 16:57:48 GMT
RDJ
De Niro
Gosling
Sessa
Melton
The Poor Things guys both miss due to vote splitting. Sue me.
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Jan 18, 2024 20:08:20 GMT
I really have no idea what's happening with the last two spots here. What do you guys think?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 18, 2024 20:27:54 GMT
Sessa feels both like that extra nomination for a movie that is getting hot at just the perfect time and ALSO that nomination everybody jumps on predicting at the very last minute that doesn’t work out.
I’m going to hopedict him anyways because fuck it. Doesn’t really matter anyways.
I’ll say him and Ruffalo.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 18, 2024 20:34:07 GMT
Sessa feels both like that extra nomination for a movie that is getting hot at just the perfect time and ALSO that nomination everybody jumps on predicting at the very last minute that doesn’t work out. Don’t disagree but I’m expecting something completely out of left field in one of the supporting categories. Perhaps predicting him is too predictable for that but I’m not really sure who else I’d want to go with at this point? Plus, him getting nominated would just make me very happy. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 18, 2024 20:40:17 GMT
Sessa feels both like that extra nomination for a movie that is getting hot at just the perfect time and ALSO that nomination everybody jumps on predicting at the very last minute that doesn’t work out. Don’t disagree but I’m expecting something completely out of left field in one of the supporting categories. Perhaps predicting him is too predictable for that but I’m not really sure who else I’d want to go with at this point? Plus, him getting nominated would just make me very happy. I think he has certainly usurped the momentum of a Charles Melton. I have to assume at least one Poor Things actor gets in, and I feel that there's a lot of public goodwill around Dafoe right now (he just got the Hollywood Walk of Fame star and he's been on a hot streak with the Academy later) . . . but Ruffalo is also quite well-liked. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 18, 2024 20:46:27 GMT
Sessa feels both like that extra nomination for a movie that is getting hot at just the perfect time and ALSO that nomination everybody jumps on predicting at the very last minute that doesn’t work out. Don’t disagree but I’m expecting something completely out of left field in one of the supporting categories. Perhaps predicting him is too predictable for that but I’m not really sure who else I’d want to go with at this point? Plus, him getting nominated would just make me very happy. Yeah it’s when everybody collectively tries to predict a surprise that it feels like it doesn’t work out. A lot of the time it’s something nobody saw coming. Sometimes it works out though. (Plemons, Cruz, Buckley) Plemons would probably be the best comparison but he could also be Mike Faist. Who knows… |
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Jan 18, 2024 20:48:31 GMT
Fuck it, going with Dafoe and Sessa.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 18, 2024 21:18:08 GMT
Yeah, I think Sessa makes it. Not sure which PT guy to go with just yet.
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