|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2024 16:27:49 GMT
My very vocal bias is based in part on how the film sidelines her. It didn't come from a vacuum here. Sure, but it’s not a consensus. Many echo your viewpoint on how the film should have been approached. And just as many thought it worked how it was presented. And that's cool, but I still can't see why they think Gladstone is a justifiable lead in it, aside from the fact that they have the most screentime by an actress in it. But looking at the sheer gulf of screentime between her and DiCaprio, it's just absolutely wild to me. What's another performance that has that discrepancy in screentime/focus where people can reasonably justify co-lead placement? |
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 15, 2024 16:31:09 GMT
I am also really surprised by how little buzz Natalie Portman has when she's genuinely brilliant for once.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2024 16:31:13 GMT
Sure, but it’s not a consensus. Many echo your viewpoint on how the film should have been approached. And just as many thought it worked how it was presented. And that's cool, but I still can't see why they think Gladstone is a justifiable lead in it, aside from the fact that they have the most screentime by an actress in it. But looking at the sheer gulf of screentime between her and DiCaprio, it's just absolutely wild to me. What's another performance that has that discrepancy in screentime/focus where people can reasonably justify co-lead placement? I can’t speak to screen time specifically but there are plenty of performers I’ve felt were Supporting that were nominated (and won) in Lead, and vice versa. |
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2024 16:32:12 GMT
I am also really surprised by how little buzz Natalie Portman has when she's genuinely brilliant for once. Really disappointed as well. Had to take her out of my predictions as I don’t see any path for her but I think she’s very deserving of a nom. |
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Jan 15, 2024 16:43:36 GMT
It's less about Robbie and more about Bening - I've been playing around with the idea of predicting her for a long-ass time and I still think that she's got a great chance to be the basic groan-worthy pick of the year. So I really want to predict her but for that I need to throw out one of the favorites. And Robbie makes the most sense to me with the role itself being the least Oscary one. Like I said in that cynical predictions thread, I'm kinda expecting AMPAS to snub both Robbie and Gerwig in directing, causing an avalanche of headlines and chaos. I guess that's me trying to make an unsafe prediction. Then again, Bening might replace Mulligan for all we know. Or maybe Hüller. Or maybe the lineup is secured with Gladstone, Stone, Hüller, Mulligan & Robbie and there's no need to overthink it. I don't think you're wrong to have Bening in contention here. I would've dismissed her long ago as someone whose ceiling was SAG and that was it . . . but the thing that is stopping me from that is Foster. Jodie has been racking up those precursors alongside her and it's going to be very hard to see her miss now (shout-out to that True Detective bump as well boosting her profile as voting opens). And if Foster's in, Bening could easily get in as well. And Robbie is easily the least flashy role in contention; Gosling at least gets to sing and dance and do wild shit Oscar loves, whereas Robbie is much more grounded and there could be a lot of people who diminish her as "well, she's playing a Barbie doll." She's much more vulnerable than I think people are giving her credit for, and I do think Mulligan still has the edge over her in terms of safety because of the sort of role she's playing. In short, I think there's enough flux here where anything can happen below the GladStone duo. I agree with all of this, plus it makes no sense to me to predict Foster (which I do) as a sole supporting nominee for a movie about Nyad called Nyad. As I've said before, not predicting Barbie for a movie called Barbie is loco too... but at least with Bening there's that element of a veteran actress going through tough physical training, portraying a pretty peculiar real-life figure and all that. Basic voters are gonna be impressed by all that stuff. |
|
|
|
Post by wilcinema on Jan 15, 2024 16:56:01 GMT
I do agree that for all intents and purposes, Gladstone gives a leading performance, but the movie around her doesn't support that claim. Colman's category placement was more controversial back then and she was more of a lead than Gladstone.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2024 17:01:24 GMT
I don't think you're wrong to have Bening in contention here. I would've dismissed her long ago as someone whose ceiling was SAG and that was it . . . but the thing that is stopping me from that is Foster. Jodie has been racking up those precursors alongside her and it's going to be very hard to see her miss now (shout-out to that True Detective bump as well boosting her profile as voting opens). And if Foster's in, Bening could easily get in as well. And Robbie is easily the least flashy role in contention; Gosling at least gets to sing and dance and do wild shit Oscar loves, whereas Robbie is much more grounded and there could be a lot of people who diminish her as "well, she's playing a Barbie doll." She's much more vulnerable than I think people are giving her credit for, and I do think Mulligan still has the edge over her in terms of safety because of the sort of role she's playing. In short, I think there's enough flux here where anything can happen below the GladStone duo. I agree with all of this, plus it makes no sense to me to predict Foster (which I do) as a sole supporting nominee for a movie about Nyad called Nyad. As I've said before, not predicting Barbie for a movie called Barbie is loco too... but at least with Bening there's that element of a veteran actress going through tough physical training, portraying a pretty peculiar real-life figure and all that. Basic voters are gonna be impressed by all that stuff. If Bening gets into BAFTA, I probably going to predict her. Bening definitely deserves to be in the Best Actress race. I agree with your reasons for why she's a major contender. Maybe this is your Golden Globe The Boy and the Heron pick. |
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 15, 2024 17:02:01 GMT
People here don't like Barbie, but anyone thinking Robbie will be snubbed - is just setting themselves up for a HUGE disappointment.
Huller will likely take the last spot - after Gladstone, Mulligan, Robbie, Stone. The category is just too stacked.
Bening couldn't even get a CC nod. And it's Jodie Foster's Bonnie who is the heart of Nyad.
|
|
Javi
Badass
Posts: 1,537 
Likes: 1,628
|
Post by Javi on Jan 15, 2024 17:06:11 GMT
Stone / Gladstone / Hüller / Lee / Bening
|
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Jan 15, 2024 17:12:35 GMT
I agree with all of this, plus it makes no sense to me to predict Foster (which I do) as a sole supporting nominee for a movie about Nyad called Nyad. As I've said before, not predicting Barbie for a movie called Barbie is loco too... but at least with Bening there's that element of a veteran actress going through tough physical training, portraying a pretty peculiar real-life figure and all that. Basic voters are gonna be impressed by all that stuff. Maybe this is your Golden Globe The Boy and the Heron pick. Not quite the same because I was actually wishing for Miyazaki to win. And I don't want Bening in contention at all  |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Jan 15, 2024 17:14:52 GMT
Maybe this is your Golden Globe The Boy and the Heron pick. Not quite the same because I was actually wishing for Miyazaki to win. And I don't want Bening in contention at all Sometimes you have to go with the gut over the brain. |
|
Archie
Based
Eraserhead son or Inland Empire daughter?
Posts: 3,681
Likes: 4,374
Member is Online
|
Post by Archie on Jan 15, 2024 17:15:00 GMT
I have this sneaking suspicion that we're gonna get NYADED.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2024 17:15:44 GMT
I have this sneaking suspicion that we're gonna get NYADED. Wouldn't that mean that Annette Bening just tells everyone she was nominated for it but the evidence later shows she missed the nod? |
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2024 17:24:37 GMT
People here don't like Barbie, but anyone thinking Robbie will be snubbed - is just setting themselves up for a HUGE disappointment.Huller will likely take the last spot - after Gladstone, Mulligan, Robbie, Stone. The category is just too stacked. Bening couldn't even get a CC nod. And it's Jodie Foster's Bonnie who is the heart of Nyad. Some of us don’t take predictions that personally and are more than alright if we’re wrong about some. |
|
|
|
Post by jasonjoliepitt on Jan 15, 2024 17:47:55 GMT
Robbie is definitely getting in. Greta Lee has no chance. The vulnerable ones are Bening, Huller or even Mulligan.
Emma Stone - Poor Things
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Margot Robbie - Barbie
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
|
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Jan 15, 2024 18:01:23 GMT
I have this sneaking suspicion that we're gonna get NYADED. Wouldn't that mean that Annette Bening just tells everyone she was nominated for it but the evidence later shows she missed the nod? Didn't that essentially happen for the songwriters behind "Alone Yet Not Alone". |
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 15, 2024 19:48:52 GMT
People here don't like Barbie, but anyone thinking Robbie will be snubbed - is just setting themselves up for a HUGE disappointment.Huller will likely take the last spot - after Gladstone, Mulligan, Robbie, Stone. The category is just too stacked. Bening couldn't even get a CC nod. And it's Jodie Foster's Bonnie who is the heart of Nyad. Some of us don’t take predictions that personally and are more than alright if we’re wrong about some. We've seen people here fly off the handle when their favorites don't win. There's a difference between a Prediction and Personal Preference. People here don't like Barbie, so they are convinced that Robbie will be snubbed. |
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 15, 2024 20:06:00 GMT
Some of us don’t take predictions that personally and are more than alright if we’re wrong about some. We've seen people here fly off the handle when their favorites don't win. There's a difference between a Prediction and Personal Preference. People here don't like Barbie, so they are convinced that Robbie will be snubbed. Sure that could be the case for some. Whereas I’m predicting Bening over Robbie but I’d much prefer Robbie get in of the two. My personal preference would be Portman over both but I’m not predicting her. |
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 15, 2024 21:05:35 GMT
I know this is more of a nomination thread, but I want to give my thoughts on Gladstone vs Stone. I'm definitely still leading Gladstone I think. I've mentioned before that since that weird covid year every acting winner besides Debose has had a nice narrative to go along with their win. Since Randolph doesn't have nor need a narrative that would mean that already 1 or 2 of the winners already will not have one. (give or take Murphy) Even in that weird year McDormand was in an easy BP winner (the reason why I'm not as sure about Giamatti as I am Gladstone) and The Father surged HARD at the end of the year. Both Killers and Poor Things are top 5 films so the strength of their films isn't really a factor.
Obviously is Gladstone loses SAG I'll change my mind but SAG loves this kind of stuff even more than the Academy.
As for the nominations in this category I'm just saying its SAG and just sub in Huller for Benning.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Jan 15, 2024 23:14:15 GMT
Same 5 I've had for ages:
Gladstone
Stone
Huller
Robbie
Mulligan
I'm prepared for egg on my face, but I still don't understand the doubt some of you have in Robbie.
|
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 16, 2024 6:43:51 GMT
Same 5 I've had for ages: Gladstone Stone Huller Robbie Mulligan I'm prepared for egg on my face, but I still don't understand the doubt some of you have in Robbie. Fewer #1 votes, which cost Amy Adams her nomination. |
|
|
|
Post by Pavan on Jan 16, 2024 7:32:00 GMT
Barbie is a top 3 film in the race behind Oppy and Holdovers. Margot is not missing.
|
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jan 16, 2024 11:07:23 GMT
Barbie is a top 3 film in the race behind Oppy and Holdovers. Margot is not missing. So was Arrival. |
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Jan 16, 2024 11:07:49 GMT
Same 5 I've had for ages: Gladstone Stone Huller Robbie Mulligan I'm prepared for egg on my face, but I still don't understand the doubt some of you have in Robbie. , which cost Amy Adams her nomination. But what is that assumption actually based on?? Especially compared to contenders like Lee and Bening. |
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Jan 16, 2024 11:08:15 GMT
Barbie is a top 3 film in the race behind Oppy and Holdovers. Margot is not missing. So was Arrival. Uhmmmm, it absolutely wasn't. |
|
