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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 13, 2024 2:02:55 GMT
What are some of your more cynical predictions for the Oscar nominations? I like to be pleasantly surprised, so when in doubt I tend to err towards the option that I prefer less but fits the bill of how the Academy has disappointed in the past. This also can lead to slightly hotter takes which is always more fun.
Some of my more cynical predictions this year, and how I hope to be proven wrong, include:
- Annette Bening (Nyad) for Lead Actress -- I haven't even seen Nyad admittedly, but it seems like a very typical bland biopic nom that will be quickly forgotten. I'd rather see a Natalie Portman or Celine Song get the spot.
- Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) for Director -- I have a weird feeling he's going to get nominated over Yorgos Lanthimos. I'm calling it now so I'm not devastated if we end up seeing Lanthimos snubbed.
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Post by JangoB on Jan 13, 2024 2:08:37 GMT
Annette Bening is nominated for Nyad with Robbie missing
AND
Triet becomes the sole female Best Director pick, not Gerwig.
So Barbie herself and her director are snubbed. Everyone's shocked. Headlines about the sexism of AMPAS pour in. Chaos reigns.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 13, 2024 2:49:55 GMT
The Color Purple & May December gets 0 nominations.
Barbie misses Adapted Screenplay or Director.
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tylosaur
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Post by tylosaur on Jan 13, 2024 3:39:38 GMT
Everyone is leaning towards Domingo and Foster as the main contenders to be the ones that hit all precursors but miss oscar nominations. Why not Danielle Brooks as well? Her film, aside from SAG ensemble, isn't getting any attention. The performances that get snubbed despite getting nominated everywhere else are often from films that weren't getting much love overall (Thompson/Mr. Banks, Bruhl/Rush, Davis/Woman King).
This would be so AMPAS: a year after Deadwyler and Davis miss nominations despite their precursor romp we end up with both Domingo and Brooks missing out on nominations in spite of their own solid precursor run.
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Post by stephen on Jan 13, 2024 3:42:59 GMT
The cynic in me thinks Barbie takes both Costumes and Production Design, leaving Poor Things to get Favourite'd hard by a blockbuster crowdpleaser.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 13, 2024 4:05:55 GMT
- Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) for Director -- I have a weird feeling he's going to get nominated over Yorgos Lanthimos. I'm calling it now so I'm not devastated if we end up seeing Lanthimos snubbed. This would be the best news ever because The Holdovers is actually a very good movie, which is why I'm not expecting it to happen. To address some of the others May December getting blanked would suck, they've got to at least nod Portman. Napoleon and Asteroid City getting blanked on techs would/will be just silly considering they might be the two most impressively mounted productions of the year, regardless of what you think overall. Would love to see Air slip into the BP/screenplay lineup but not holding my breath. The Teacher's Lounge is one of my favorites of the year and my favorite foreign film of the year by a good margin but I'm not going to be surprised if it doesn't make the cut. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 13, 2024 4:33:53 GMT
The Brooks missing prediction is tempting.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 13, 2024 4:34:31 GMT
- Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) for Director -- I have a weird feeling he's going to get nominated over Yorgos Lanthimos. I'm calling it now so I'm not devastated if we end up seeing Lanthimos snubbed. This would be the best news ever because The Holdovers is actually a very good movie, which is why I'm not expecting it to happen. To address some of the others May December getting blanked would suck, they've got to at least nod Portman. Napoleon and Asteroid City getting blanked on techs would/will be just silly considering they might be the two most impressively mounted productions of the year, regardless of what you think overall. Would love to see Air slip into the BP/screenplay lineup but not holding my breath. The Teacher's Lounge is one of my favorites of the year and my favorite foreign film of the year by a good margin but I'm not going to be surprised if it doesn't make the cut. She's the least likely out of the trio atp. |
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Post by JangoB on Jan 13, 2024 10:36:49 GMT
The Brooks missing prediction is tempting. Resist. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 13, 2024 13:31:46 GMT
The Brooks missing prediction is tempting. Resist. You don't get to tell me what to do, you're not my Mum! But also yeah, I'm still predicting her. |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jan 13, 2024 13:58:11 GMT
It’s not something I’m currently predicting, but… I’ll be heartbroken if ‘May December’ is completely blanked.
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Post by PromNightCarrie on Jan 13, 2024 14:36:19 GMT
Nyad as a film is so mediocre, but Bening and especially Foster are good.
My cynical take is May December gets nothing except Charles Melton in supporting, which would really suck.
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rhodoraonline
Badass
Your Generosity Hides Something Dirtier and Meaner
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 13, 2024 15:18:40 GMT
Goose, Ruffalo, Defoe and DeNiro all get "dutifully" picked, leaving zero room for the way more interesting up and comers  ( |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 13, 2024 16:11:14 GMT
Well, not cynical so much as smart-ass but I have a reputation to uphold: Matt Damon, Jamie Foxx and Jonathan Majors will all miss getting nods
What not funny?  |
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Post by stephen on Jan 13, 2024 16:23:41 GMT
It’s not something I’m currently predicting, but… I’ll be heartbroken if ‘May December’ is completely blanked. I really think Original Screenplay may be its only shot at this stage. Missing PGA and SAG while it was riding its peak buzz is devastating. Melton can't regain momentum with BAFTA, either. Moore could theoretically do it but I think Foster's usurped the Netflix veteran momentum. I do think it's still likely to get that writing nomination, but I would not be surprised if it missed. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 13, 2024 16:55:11 GMT
May December and The Color Purple are done. Every year there are films that gets early Oscar buzz - but just aren't able to sustain the momentum. It happens.
Then there are films like American Fiction, which is surging at the right time.
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Post by paulgallo on Jan 13, 2024 17:29:20 GMT
The cynic in me thinks Barbie takes both Costumes and Production Design, leaving Poor Things to get Favourite'd hard by a blockbuster crowdpleaser. That sadly sounds more like a realistic prediction than a cynical one. |
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jan 13, 2024 17:30:03 GMT
It’s not something I’m currently predicting, but… I’ll be heartbroken if ‘May December’ is completely blanked. I really think Original Screenplay may be its only shot at this stage. Missing PGA and SAG while it was riding its peak buzz is devastating. Melton can't regain momentum with BAFTA, either. Moore could theoretically do it but I think Foster's usurped the Netflix veteran momentum. I do think it's still likely to get that writing nomination, but I would not be surprised if it missed. I hope this isn't the case, but I've also felt this could be true... On the flip side... Industry insiders like Jennifer Garner and Kristen Stewart have been hosting screenings. Maybe there will be enough passion for it in the end? Moore has a lot of friends in Hollywood. |
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Post by paulgallo on Jan 13, 2024 17:32:59 GMT
- Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) for Director -- I have a weird feeling he's going to get nominated over Yorgos Lanthimos. I'm calling it now so I'm not devastated if we end up seeing Lanthimos snubbed. This would be the best news ever because The Holdovers is actually a very good movie, which is why I'm not expecting it to happen. To address some of the others May December getting blanked would suck, they've got to at least nod Portman. Napoleon and Asteroid City getting blanked on techs would/will be just silly considering they might be the two most impressively mounted productions of the year, regardless of what you think overall. Would love to see Air slip into the BP/screenplay lineup but not holding my breath. The Teacher's Lounge is one of my favorites of the year and my favorite foreign film of the year by a good margin but I'm not going to be surprised if it doesn't make the cut. There's no path for Portman to get nominated, she missed every precursor except GG and they even had to put her in the Comedy bracket or she likely wouldn't even have gotten that. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 13, 2024 18:52:28 GMT
I really think Original Screenplay may be its only shot at this stage. Missing PGA and SAG while it was riding its peak buzz is devastating. Melton can't regain momentum with BAFTA, either. Moore could theoretically do it but I think Foster's usurped the Netflix veteran momentum. I do think it's still likely to get that writing nomination, but I would not be surprised if it missed. I hope this isn't the case, but I've also felt this could be true... On the flip side... Industry insiders like Jennifer Garner and Kristen Stewart have been hosting screenings. Maybe there will be enough passion for it in the end? Moore has a lot of friends in Hollywood. But not everyone will be nominated every time. The problem here is that the film just isn't resonating. The film, Portman, Melton all missed the BAFTA long list. No PGA. And 0 SAG - where it should have shown up. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 13, 2024 20:30:12 GMT
The Brooks missing prediction is tempting. It is indeed a strong possibility. We haven't seen Brooks winning any precursor awards and her film isn't doing very well with the Guilds. Didn't get nominated at PGA. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 14, 2024 21:38:17 GMT
Joe Hisaishi is snubbed in favor of John Williams.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 19, 2024 6:11:17 GMT
Bobby D out, Melton in
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Post by jasonjoliepitt on Jan 21, 2024 20:08:47 GMT
I really think Original Screenplay may be its only shot at this stage. Missing PGA and SAG while it was riding its peak buzz is devastating. Melton can't regain momentum with BAFTA, either. Moore could theoretically do it but I think Foster's usurped the Netflix veteran momentum. I do think it's still likely to get that writing nomination, but I would not be surprised if it missed. I hope this isn't the case, but I've also felt this could be true... On the flip side... Industry insiders like Jennifer Garner and Kristen Stewart have been hosting screenings. Maybe there will be enough passion for it in the end? Moore has a lot of friends in Hollywood. I really hope Moore pulls through. It would be crazy for a masterful performance like hers to miss out on a nomination. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 22, 2024 1:42:16 GMT
I hope this isn't the case, but I've also felt this could be true... On the flip side... Industry insiders like Jennifer Garner and Kristen Stewart have been hosting screenings. Maybe there will be enough passion for it in the end? Moore has a lot of friends in Hollywood. I really hope Moore pulls through. It would be crazy for a masterful performance like hers to miss out on a nomination. Moore and Portman have been campaigning their asses off. I think Moore and Melton will be nominated. |
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