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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 4, 2023 21:14:36 GMT
Generally one of the most difficult (and therefore least fun for me) awards groups to predict. They can be all over the place. Especially in acting categories. Some observations for Picture and Director
*Love Warner Brothers (maybe Barbie?)
*Love movies released very late in the year (The Color Purple maybe?)
*Somewhat middlebrow and more Oscar friendly than NY or LA but will occasionally just go for the big critics choice
*Partial to big name film makers for both Picture and Director (Kind of thinking Marty takes one or the other. He has won three times this century. As well as stuff like Adapted Screenplay for Silence)
*Love George Clooney. Wouldn't be shocked if The Boys in the Boat sneaks into their top ten if it is out in time
*More open to action movies. Fury Road and Maverick both won
*No Eastwood movie this year so we don't have to worry about that. They LOVE that guy.
*They are fond of Bradley Cooper and the movies he makes/stars in. Wouldn't be shocked if he and Maestro do well
I'll probably do mine later.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 4, 2023 22:26:03 GMT
Picture: Barbie
Director: Martin Scorsese
Actor: Bradley Cooper
Actress: Mulligan
Supporting Actress: Danielle Brooks
Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling
Adapted Screenplay: Oppenheimer
Original Screenplay: Barbie
Animated: Spiderverse
International: Zone of Interest
Documentary: I don't know. The Michael J Fox one? I only know two documentaries.
Ensemble: The Color Purple
Breakthrough: Sessa
I'll do the top ten later.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 4, 2023 22:29:54 GMT
I don't think there's any way Oppenheimer doesn't win at least something.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 4, 2023 22:31:30 GMT
I don't think there's any way Oppenheimer doesn't win at least something. Screenplay makes sense if not director. Maybe Blunt or Downey. I don't know they are very random. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 4, 2023 22:34:35 GMT
I don't think there's any way Oppenheimer doesn't win at least something. Screenplay makes sense if not director. Maybe Blunt or Downey. I don't know they are very random. I'm thinking Nolan takes director for sure. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 4, 2023 22:36:07 GMT
Screenplay makes sense if not director. Maybe Blunt or Downey. I don't know they are very random. I'm thinking Nolan takes director for sure. Possible. I don't think you can be very sure with anything on these guys besides Eastwood. |
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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 4, 2023 23:50:42 GMT
Best Film - American Fiction
Best Director - Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Actor - Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress - Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor - Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress - Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Best Ensemble Cast - The Color Purple
Best Breakthrough Performance - Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Best Adapted Screenplay - American Fiction
Best Original Screenplay - Barbie
Best Animated Film - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Documentary Film - 20 Days in Mariupol
Best International Film - The Zone of Interest
Best Directorial Debut - Past Lives
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Post by stephen on Dec 5, 2023 0:22:24 GMT
Best Film: The Holdovers
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Best Ensemble Cast: Oppenheimer
Best Breakthrough Performance: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Best Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Best Animated Film: The Boy and the Heron
Best Documentary Film: Pass.
Best International Film: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Directorial Debut: Past Lives
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 5, 2023 1:37:50 GMT
Best Film: Oppenheimer
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Best Ensemble Cast: Oppenheimer
Best Breakthrough Performance: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Best Original Screenplay: The Holdovers
Best Adapted Screenplay: Oppenheimer
Best Animated Film: Spiderman
Best International Film: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Directorial Debut: Past Lives
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 5, 2023 11:22:28 GMT
Best Film: Oppenheimer
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Actor: Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Best Actress: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Best Ensemble Cast: Barbie
Best Breakthrough Performance: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Best Original Screenplay: The Holdovers
Best Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Best Animated Film: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Documentary Film: The Michael J. Fox doc
Best International Film: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Directorial Debut: Past Lives
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Dec 6, 2023 15:10:25 GMT
Picture: Killers of the Flower Moon
Director: Christopher Nolan: Oppenheimer
Actor: Bradley Cooper: Maestro
Actress: Emma Stone: Poor Things
Supporting Actress: Da‘Vine Joy Randolph: The Holdovers
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr: Oppenheimer
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 6, 2023 19:29:48 GMT
Maybe this means nothing but it could be a potentially funny tell but they just started following Efron, Randolph, Gladstone and Ruffalo. As well as the writer of The holdoveres.
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 6, 2023 19:32:14 GMT
Best Film: “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Best Director: Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Best Actor: Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
NBR Icon Award: Bradley Cooper
Best Original Screenplay: “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — David Hemingson
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara
Breakthrough Performance: Teyana Taylor, “A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
Best Directorial Debut: Celine Song, “Past Lives” (A24)
Best Animated Feature: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Best International Film: “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Best Documentary: “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films)
Best Ensemble: “The Iron Claw” (A24)
Outstanding Achievement in Stunt Artistry: Director Chad Stahelski and Stunt Coordinators Stephen Dunlevy & Scott Rogers, “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 6, 2023 19:35:20 GMT
Maybe this means nothing but it could be a potentially funny tell but they just started following Efron, Randolph, Gladstone and Ruffalo. As well as the writer of The holdoveres. Good call. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 6, 2023 19:38:04 GMT
Maybe this means nothing but it could be a potentially funny tell but they just started following Efron, Randolph, Gladstone and Ruffalo. As well as the writer of The holdoveres. Good call. Ah it was effron for Ensemble. I wonder if Giamatti even has a Twitter |
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Post by wallsofjericho on Dec 6, 2023 19:40:24 GMT
So happy for Lily  |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 6, 2023 19:44:22 GMT
Rest of top 10 is
“Barbie”
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Ferrari”
“The Holdovers”
“The Iron Claw”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 6, 2023 20:01:43 GMT
The buzz out of Venice would've led me to believe Stone would be sweeping yet she hasn't gotten a single win yet.
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 6, 2023 20:02:28 GMT
Although one can get NBR and miss, still good for Giamatti to get this win after his Indie Spirits snub.
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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 6, 2023 20:05:01 GMT
Gladstone’s domination continues! Starting to feel more comfortable she’s taking the Oscar.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 6, 2023 20:06:18 GMT
There's not a lot of overlap with the Oscars. Going back to 2015, it looks like only 1 performance a year has translated to an Oscar win.
At this point, Giamatti, Gladstone, and Brooks have the best chances.
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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 6, 2023 20:07:33 GMT
Bad news for The Color Purple and American Fiction. They both seemed right up NBR’s street.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 6, 2023 20:10:30 GMT
NYFCC & NBR for The Irishman and KotFM Kiss of Death tbh ........  |
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Dec 6, 2023 20:21:23 GMT
NYFCC & NBR for The Irishman and KotFM Kiss of Death tbh ........ Oppenheimer is winning |
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Post by stephen on Dec 6, 2023 20:23:09 GMT
The buzz out of Venice would've led me to believe Stone would be sweeping yet she hasn't gotten a single win yet. Michigan gave her the win. |
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