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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 20, 2023 22:06:14 GMT
Honestly been putting this off because that shakeup was so big I needed a while to wrap my head around this but let’s do this…
Brooks
Randolph
Blunt
Henson
Cruz
I like the top 4 quite a bit. Cruz has a history of getting nominated for films that aren’t best picture contenders so I went with her. Foster, Moore and maybe Davis are possible too.
For the win right now I’ll say Brooks. I normally don’t like predicting non seen performances over acclaimed seen performances but we know the role is super baity and she’s already been nominated for a Tony for it so I’ll make an exception. I do think Randolph and , god help us, Blunt could as well.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Sept 20, 2023 22:08:19 GMT
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Julianne Moore, May December
Alt.
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
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Post by DanQuixote on Sept 20, 2023 22:41:21 GMT
1. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
3. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
5. Jodie Foster, Nyad
6. Viola Davis, Air
7. Erika Alexander, American Fiction
8. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
9. Julianne Moore, May December
10. America Ferrera, Barbie
They’re also apparently pushing Juliette Binoche here for The Pot-Au-Feu. Seems like outrageous fraud, but maybe it could work…
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Post by JangoB on Sept 20, 2023 23:26:32 GMT
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Jodie Foster, Nyad
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Post by stephen on Sept 20, 2023 23:41:08 GMT
I honestly think we're going to see someone like Carey Mulligan suddenly run supporting in the face of the Gladstone shift. But assuming no fuckery on that front:
1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
2. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
6. Viola Davis, Air
7. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (I assume she's Apple TV+'s big campaign here now)
8. Erika Alexander, American Fiction
9. Jodie Foster, Nyad
10. Julianne Moore, May December
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 21, 2023 0:36:22 GMT
Blunt
Brooks
Foster
Henson
Randolph
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Post by stephen on Sept 21, 2023 15:49:11 GMT
Maybe I am just blinding myself with anticipation for it, but I really do think people are sleeping on Pike as a nominee. Despite Saltburn having a somewhat divisive response, she (and Keoghan) still got very strong notices and it does feel like a film that would have passion voters behind it. Plus she is a previous nominee.
I am curious as well to those of you predicting Foster: you think she gets in without Bening?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 21, 2023 16:01:07 GMT
Maybe I am just blinding myself with anticipation for it? Your words not mine. 😛 As for Foster I’m not predicting her but if I was I wouldn’t have a problem with it. Actress is a blood bath. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 21, 2023 16:04:59 GMT
Maybe I am just blinding myself with anticipation for it? Your words not mine. 😛 As for Foster I’m not predicting her but if I was I wouldn’t have a problem with it. Actress is a blood bath. I just think that historically, actors don't need an 85+ on MC and RT to get into the race, especially previous nominees. And while Saltburn is one of the rare films this season to maybe fall short of expectations, it's not like it's a disaster, either. I dunno, I think there's still life in the film's campaign, especially as far as BAFTA goes. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Sept 21, 2023 16:06:46 GMT
Maybe I am just blinding myself with anticipation for it, but I really do think people are sleeping on Pike as a nominee. Despite Saltburn having a somewhat divisive response, she (and Keoghan) still got very strong notices and it does feel like a film that would have passion voters behind it. Plus she is a previous nominee. I am curious as well to those of you predicting Foster: you think she gets in without Bening? I think Pike is a strong contender for a nom. She’d be in my current predictions. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 21, 2023 16:10:05 GMT
Your words not mine. 😛 As for Foster I’m not predicting her but if I was I wouldn’t have a problem with it. Actress is a blood bath. I just think that historically, actors don't need an 85+ on MC and RT to get into the race, especially previous nominees. And while Saltburn is one of the rare films this season to maybe fall short of expectations, it's not like it's a disaster, either. I dunno, I think there's still life in the film's campaign, especially as far as BAFTA goes. I just think most of what you just said applies to Cruz, Foster, Moore and Davis as well. Not impossible I just don’t think this movie is going to catch on. We will see! I’m highly anticipating though. I’m as big of a Talented Mr Ripley fan as you can find and love those comparisons. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 21, 2023 16:19:17 GMT
I just think that historically, actors don't need an 85+ on MC and RT to get into the race, especially previous nominees. And while Saltburn is one of the rare films this season to maybe fall short of expectations, it's not like it's a disaster, either. I dunno, I think there's still life in the film's campaign, especially as far as BAFTA goes. I just think most of what you just said applies to Cruz, Foster, Moore and Davis as well. Not impossible I just don’t think this movie is going to catch on. We will see! Cruz has the weakest studio of the bunch and her film doesn't feel like it's going anywhere, but they do love her, so I can't rule her out entirely. Davis's film has by far the earliest release window and it feels like a solo nomination if anything. SAG is sure to nominate her, but I don't know if I see her going beyond that. Definitely possible, which is why I have her at #6. I think her release date hurts her more than anything else. I feel like May December might not appeal to everyone's tastes (of course, Saltburn might not as well) but it feels like most of the attention for that film has been aimed at Portman and Melton. Moore reads as someone who I think might've burned up her Oscar goodwill when she won in 2014 and it's going to take something major to get her back in again. We've been down this route with Foster before (hi The Mauritanian), but it would be funny if a film built entirely around the narrative of Annette Bening never winning an Oscar wound up getting her snubbed and her co-star (who had almost zero buzz up to the film's premiere) gets in. I dunno, Netflix is really good at shotgunning nominations to maximum effect. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 21, 2023 16:28:53 GMT
I just think most of what you just said applies to Cruz, Foster, Moore and Davis as well. Not impossible I just don’t think this movie is going to catch on. We will see! Cruz has the weakest studio of the bunch and her film doesn't feel like it's going anywhere, but they do love her, so I can't rule her out entirely. Davis's film has by far the earliest release window and it feels like a solo nomination if anything. SAG is sure to nominate her, but I don't know if I see her going beyond that. Definitely possible, which is why I have her at #6. I think her release date hurts her more than anything else. I feel like May December might not appeal to everyone's tastes (of course, Saltburn might not as well) but it feels like most of the attention for that film has been aimed at Portman and Melton. Moore reads as someone who I think might've burned up her Oscar goodwill when she won in 2014 and it's going to take something major to get her back in again. We've been down this route with Foster before (hi The Mauritanian), but it would be funny if a film built entirely around the narrative of Annette Bening never winning an Oscar wound up getting her snubbed and her co-star (who had almost zero buzz up to the film's premiere) gets in. I dunno, Netflix is really good at shotgunning nominations to maximum effect. I mean you can pick apart any on the bubble contender (that’s why they are on the bubble) and I feel most of the acting acclaim went to Barry. I didn’t think her notices were that strong. Felt more by the way than the others. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 21, 2023 16:32:24 GMT
Cruz has the weakest studio of the bunch and her film doesn't feel like it's going anywhere, but they do love her, so I can't rule her out entirely. Davis's film has by far the earliest release window and it feels like a solo nomination if anything. SAG is sure to nominate her, but I don't know if I see her going beyond that. Definitely possible, which is why I have her at #6. I think her release date hurts her more than anything else. I feel like May December might not appeal to everyone's tastes (of course, Saltburn might not as well) but it feels like most of the attention for that film has been aimed at Portman and Melton. Moore reads as someone who I think might've burned up her Oscar goodwill when she won in 2014 and it's going to take something major to get her back in again. We've been down this route with Foster before (hi The Mauritanian), but it would be funny if a film built entirely around the narrative of Annette Bening never winning an Oscar wound up getting her snubbed and her co-star (who had almost zero buzz up to the film's premiere) gets in. I dunno, Netflix is really good at shotgunning nominations to maximum effect. I mean you can pick apart any on the bubble contender (that’s why they are on the bubble) and I feel most of the acting acclaim went to Barry. I didn’t think her notices were that strong. Felt more by the way than the others. I didn't delve too deeply into reviews beyond cursory glances for fear of spoilers, but I did see a lot of very strong notices for Pike even though, as you say, Keoghan was the one reaping most of the plaudits. Still, I feel like even though you can pick apart any on-the-bubble contender, the fact that almost nobody is thinking Saltburn is at least in the running for something is a bit surprising to me. But maybe I'm just deluding myself, who knows. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 21, 2023 16:33:43 GMT
y'all really think Blunt's getting her first nomination for a Nolan movie?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 21, 2023 16:36:42 GMT
Danielle Brooks
Penelope Cruz
Jodie Foster
Taraji P. Henson
Da'Vine Joy Randolph
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Post by stephen on Sept 21, 2023 16:46:48 GMT
y'all really think Blunt's getting her first nomination for a Nolan movie? I mean, for me it's a lack of reasonable strong alternatives. She has a top three film, she has a reasonably showy Oscar scene, and she's seen as overdue. I could see a world in which she misses, but it would take a sudden surge in momentum from one or more of the fringe contenders or a sudden random late entrant to the race like a Claire Foy or something. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 21, 2023 16:51:39 GMT
y'all really think Blunt's getting her first nomination for a Nolan movie? For lack of many better options, yes. |
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Post by wilcinema on Sept 21, 2023 17:32:52 GMT
Coattail nominations constantly happen for Top 3 movies, I had Blunt even before Gladstone’s category switch.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Sept 21, 2023 19:58:27 GMT
admittedly haven’t read the reviews, but i’m wondering if claire foy in all of us strangers could make a push here. i read a couple of reactions that think the role has oscar potential and a ‘big scene’
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dazed
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Likes: 1,811
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Post by dazed on Sept 21, 2023 20:05:27 GMT
henson
brooks*
foy
blunt
randolph
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 22, 2023 0:23:34 GMT
Maybe I am just blinding myself with anticipation for it, but I really do think people are sleeping on Pike as a nominee. Despite Saltburn having a somewhat divisive response, she (and Keoghan) still got very strong notices and it does feel like a film that would have passion voters behind it. Plus she is a previous nominee. I am curious as well to those of you predicting Foster: you think she gets in without Bening?Yes |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 22, 2023 0:24:48 GMT
y'all really think Blunt's getting her first nomination for a Nolan movie? Yes... Because it's not just any ol Nolan movie, it's a Top 3 contender at worst. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Sept 22, 2023 23:34:11 GMT
I honestly think we're going to see someone like Carey Mulligan suddenly run supporting in the face of the Gladstone shift. But assuming no fuckery on that front: 1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple2. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer6. Viola Davis, Air7. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (I assume she's Apple TV+'s big campaign here now) 8. Erika Alexander, American Fiction9. Jodie Foster, Nyad10. Julianne Moore, May December No faith in the Are You There God? actresses -- Rachel McAdams and Kathy Bates. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 22, 2023 23:55:04 GMT
I honestly think we're going to see someone like Carey Mulligan suddenly run supporting in the face of the Gladstone shift. But assuming no fuckery on that front: 1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple2. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers3. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn5. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer6. Viola Davis, Air7. Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon (I assume she's Apple TV+'s big campaign here now) 8. Erika Alexander, American Fiction9. Jodie Foster, Nyad10. Julianne Moore, May December No faith in the Are You There God? actresses -- Rachel McAdams and Kathy Bates. None at all. |
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