Nikan
Based
Posts: 3,212 
Likes: 1,595
|
Post by Nikan on Sept 7, 2023 20:42:49 GMT
His movie is everywhere this year... but do you think, come the end of the year, there's a possibility that he won't make it? I think a Globe nom is pretty much in the bag.  |
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Sept 7, 2023 20:51:14 GMT
His movie is everywhere this year... but do you think, come the end of the year, there's a possibility that he won't make it? I think a Globe nom is pretty much in the bag. The closest parallel to him would be Costner missing in JFK but that wasn't told through his POV and didn't make a billion dollars so......he's in .......at least and possibly winning ...... |
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 7, 2023 20:54:23 GMT
No.
|
|
Nikan
Based
Posts: 3,212
Likes: 1,595
|
Post by Nikan on Sept 7, 2023 20:58:54 GMT
His movie is everywhere this year... but do you think, come the end of the year, there's a possibility that he won't make it? I think a Globe nom is pretty much in the bag. The closest parallel to him would be Costner missing in JFK but that wasn't told through his POV and didn't make a billion dollars so......he's in .......at least and possibly winning ...... Scarecrow be the first to win an acting Oscar for a Nolan pic since the joker would be something... |
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Sept 7, 2023 21:03:23 GMT
Only if his name is Eddie.
|
|
|
|
Post by Martin Stett on Sept 7, 2023 21:20:05 GMT
Only if his name is Eddie. Someone needs to greenscreen Eddie Murphy into Oppenheimer now |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 7, 2023 21:28:29 GMT
I've posited it that if there is a shock snub this year, Murphy fits the bill. He's not interested in the song-and-dance of awards politics, the role is atypical even for a biopic because Murphy plays it so close to the vest for much of the movie, Best Actor has a surfeit of plausible candidates, and I'd argue that Nolan is the real face of his movie even more than Murphy.
I'm not predicting the snub, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened, either.
|
|
|
|
Post by TylerDeneuve on Sept 7, 2023 21:34:30 GMT
No, I really can't. There's nothing stopping Oppenheimer - finally, here is a prestigious, well-reviewed blockbuster for adults - it's going to have support across all branches.
|
|
Nikan
Based
Posts: 3,212
Likes: 1,595
|
Post by Nikan on Sept 7, 2023 21:39:13 GMT
I've posited it that if there is a shock snub this year, Murphy fits the bill. He's not interested in the song-and-dance of awards politics, the role is atypical even for a biopic because Murphy plays it so close to the vest for much of the movie, Best Actor has a surfeit of plausible candidates, and I'd argue that Nolan is the real face of his movie even more than Murphy. This might be my biggest reason to imagine a snub... I don't know if the insiders "like" him enough (it'll be his first nom anyway) but there have been those who didn't play the dance of it either - not to my knowledge - and have gone home as winners: Phoenix for Joker, Hopkins for The Father (not literally of course, he didn't leave his home to go back to it with filled hands lol)… but maybe they were "overdue" of some kind... |
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Sept 7, 2023 21:45:06 GMT
Only if his name is Eddie. Someone needs to greenscreen Eddie Murphy into Oppenheimer now Not quite what you requested but still...  |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Sept 7, 2023 21:48:11 GMT
I've posited it that if there is a shock snub this year, Murphy fits the bill. He's not interested in the song-and-dance of awards politics, the role is atypical even for a biopic because Murphy plays it so close to the vest for much of the movie, Best Actor has a surfeit of plausible candidates, and I'd argue that Nolan is the real face of his movie even more than Murphy. This might be my biggest reason to imagine a snub... I don't know if the insiders "like" him enough (it'll be his first nom anyway) but there have been those who didn't play the dance of it either - not to my knowledge - and have gone home as winners: Phoenix for Joker, Hopkins for The Father (not literally of course, he didn't leave his home to go back to it with filled hands lol)… but maybe they were "overdue" of some kind... Some people who choose not to "play the game" do still get recognized, but there is usually either a narrative that is undeniable (as in the case of Phoenix, who even so was still promoting Joker and was out in force for it in a way that he hadn't really been for any of his other movies, at least since his sabbatical) or the performance speaks for itself (Rylance, Hopkins 2.0). Murphy benefits in that we're in the middle of a strike and a lot of his competition have yet to premiere, whereas he's done all the press for his movie already so he's "ahead" in a sense . . . but there's a lot of time between now and voting, and that early release might work against him if he's not wanting to put the work in. Right now I'd say Murphy is a safe third place right now in terms of likelihood of a nomination, behind Cooper and DiCaprio (veterans who consistently get nominated). I think Domingo has a higher individual win equity but his film is going to be much weaker so I'd have him fourth, and then fifth feels like musical chairs among Giamatti, Keoghan, Andrew Scott and a couple others who might show up in the back end of the festival season. Giamatti could go either way, Keoghan feels like a good pick for a passion nomination even if his film isn't as rapturously received, Scott could follow the Paul Mescal route of pure critical adulation . . . ultimately, if you're a "safe" third placer, it's easy enough to get overtaken by sudden passionate momentum from people willing to work the circuit with studio backing. |
|
Nikan
Based
Posts: 3,212
Likes: 1,595
|
Post by Nikan on Sept 7, 2023 21:57:47 GMT
Someone needs to greenscreen Eddie Murphy into Oppenheimer now Not quite what you requested but still... The fact that we get more than one dripping eddieheimer gives me life. |
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Sept 7, 2023 22:14:08 GMT
He's winning.
|
|
|
|
Post by mikediastavrone96 on Sept 7, 2023 22:22:00 GMT
There are generally few 100% cases in awards season. Murphy is not one of them.
|
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Sept 7, 2023 23:20:05 GMT
When was the last time a biopic performance (as a famous figure) missed in lead actor, that was also a top five contender?
John Lone? (Though you could argue Puyi was relatively obscure to many before his film). Before that David Carradine?
|
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Sept 7, 2023 23:39:09 GMT
We have to keep the strikes in mind too. Murphy might not be a big fan of the whole 'song-and-dance', but right now he's the only contender who's been able to promote their film AT ALL.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pavan on Sept 8, 2023 9:06:06 GMT
Only if Oppenheimer seriously underperforms. Otherwise he is pretty safe for a nom.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pavan on Sept 8, 2023 9:10:41 GMT
Only if Oppenheimer seriously underperforms. Otherwise he is pretty safe for a nom. We are only doing this because Oppy is a summer film that may lose momentum come awards season while all the new baity movies will take away its limelight? In a just world that should not happen. Oppenheimer is a highly acclaimed, massively successful film and if The Academy overlooks the film or Murphy for Oscar bait stuff then that would be a shame. |
|
Nikan
Based
Posts: 3,212
Likes: 1,595
|
Post by Nikan on Sept 8, 2023 9:48:50 GMT
Only if Oppenheimer seriously underperforms. Otherwise he is pretty safe for a nom. This isn't entirely true. I brought it up because of Cillian himself and I feel I'm willing to distinguish focusing on him from the movie's success more easily than some of yous. Regardless of how acclaimed or technically good of a performer he is considered to be or how much I enjoy him personally (the dude kept me watching Peaky Blinders - alongside a co-star, may she rest in peace - for four bloody seasons)… the performance itself as stated above is pretty reserved for the most part and let's not pretend a movie doing exceptionally in Oscar season can't have it's (edit: male) lead overlooked (was Chicago a summer release? anyway Richard Gere there)... Costner's JFK snub might be the closest example I have in mind but yes, Murphy dominates his movie more than both of them so... he appears to be pretty safe, for the time being. |
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Sept 8, 2023 20:12:54 GMT
Maybe if Lead Actor was stronger this year. At the moment, it feels like you have the consensus five (DiCaprio, Cooper, Murphy, Giamatti and Domingo) and then a few other weaker alternates (Keoghan, Scott).
|
|
|
|
Post by countjohn on Sept 9, 2023 2:25:20 GMT
I can "see" it but I wouldn't specifically predict it. It's just too early to call much of anything a lock.
|
|
Nikan
Based
Posts: 3,212
Likes: 1,595
|
Post by Nikan on Dec 12, 2023 19:39:30 GMT
Well... nine people and me didn't know a thing.
|
|
Nikan
Based
Posts: 3,212
Likes: 1,595
|
Post by Nikan on Jan 25, 2024 8:57:10 GMT
|
|
