Post by Brother Fease on Feb 9, 2020 15:22:48 GMT
I checked the record. The BAFTA and the Oscars have never lined-up perfectly before, especially in the major categories. The closest we came was in 2017 (6/8, missed picture and screenplay), 2015 (6/8, picture and supporting actress), and in 1982 (6/7, Nicholson won for Reds). In other words, no more than 6 has matched the BAFTA.
My probability predictions, has the BAFTA, Oscar, and Guilds all lining up. This year, I've gone with all the favorites and then anticipating losing the couple of surprise victors.
Most seem to agree that the acting awards and director are pretty much locked in. Although I do see some predicting Joon-ho to beat out Mendes for some odd reason. Jojo Rabbit seems to be favored to beat Little Women due to two head-to-head match-ups at the Writer's Guild and British Academy awards.
Best Original Screenplay and Picture seem to be the most likely to go in a different direction, if it does happen. Tarantino won the Globe for Best Screenplay and that has matched the screenplay winner 14 out of the last 20 seasons. The Critics Choice Best Original Screenplay winner and the Oscar have lined up 12 out of 14 times. The only misses were First Reformed, which had only one nomination, and Inglourious Basterds which lost to The Hurt Locker, a film which won more major screenplay awards.
Obviously with Best Picture, the two haven't lined up since 12 Years a Slave.
But then again, we have seen a lot of historic firsts here. Parasite was the first foreign film ever to win the SAG Ensemble and possibly the WGA. 1917 was the first film ever to win the Producer's Guild without any acting nominations at the SAG awards or without an ACE nomination. This is the first time we have seen the BAFTA Big 8 and the Guild Big 8 match. If Once Upon A Time wins here, it would be the first film ever to win Best Picture without winning the PGA, DGA or WGA, since the creation of the PGA award in 1989.
