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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 4, 2020 1:43:53 GMT
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Knives Out - Rian Johnson Marriage Story - Noah Baumbach 1917 - Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino Parasite - Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won; Story by Bong Joon Ho
Tarantino won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. Joon Ho & Jin Won took home the WGA and BAFTA.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman – Steven Zaillian based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt
Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens
Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver based on characters created by Bill Finger, Bob Kane, and Jerry Robinson
Little Women – Greta Gerwig based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott
The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten based on his play The Pope
Gerwig won the Critics Choice and USC Scripter. Waititi won the WGA and BAFTA.
Picture and Screenplay matches are the most common connection this century. The Shape of Water, The Artist, Million Dollar Baby, Chicago and Gladiator are the only examples of picture winners which failed to win a screenplay award.
There's only been two times since 2000, when the WGA and BAFTA winner did not match the Oscar. You had 2009 Up in the Air and 2014 Grand Budapest Hotel. Precious beat out Up in the Air. Birdman beat out Grand Budapest.
Personally I am going to go toward Parasite and Jojo Rabbit. While I do love Hollywood and Little Women (seen both twice btw), I think the Academy will lean toward those films due to their cultural and political significance and the fact they won the two biggest writing awards. Parasite is about class warfare, Jojo is about hate in our culture.
Your prediction is what?
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Post by stephen on Feb 4, 2020 1:46:38 GMT
Parasite and Jojo Rabbit, but Gerwig is still a spoiler threat.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 4, 2020 1:54:32 GMT
Parasite and Jojo Rabbit, but Gerwig is still a spoiler threat. The only reason why people will be predicting Gerwig is because they assume the Academy cares about woke culture.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Feb 4, 2020 2:08:07 GMT
Parasite and Jojo Rabbit, but Gerwig is still a spoiler threat. The only reason why people will be predicting Gerwig is because they assume the Academy cares about woke culture.
No, it's because Little Women has the exact same number of nominations as Jojo Rabbit, MUCH better reviews, MUCH better box-office, was made by someone who was up for Picture/Directing/Screenplay just two years ago as opposed to a total newcomer, and (most importantly) there's been something of an uproar over Gerwig's Directing snub that might help her case and net her makeup votes in the one category she is nominated for, which is absolutely not the case with Waititi. I'm predicting Jojo too because WGA + BAFTA is a hell of a combo, but in more than one thread I've seen you writing off Little Women's success as the mere result of the Academy trying to look good or pass themselves off as woke, and that's simply not accurate. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 4, 2020 2:33:06 GMT
The only reason why people will be predicting Gerwig is because they assume the Academy cares about woke culture.
No, it's because Little Women has the exact same number of nominations as Jojo Rabbit, MUCH better reviews, MUCH better box-office, was made by someone who was up for Picture/Directing/Screenplay just two years ago as opposed to a total newcomer, and (most importantly) there's been something of an uproar over Gerwig's Directing snub that might help her case and net her makeup votes in the one category she is nominated for, which is absolutely not the case with Waititi. I'm predicting Jojo too because WGA + BAFTA is a hell of a combo, but in more than one thread I've seen you writing off Little Women's success as the mere result of the Academy trying to look good or pass themselves off as woke, and that's simply not accurate. Actually yes. For the record, LW had better boxoffice and RT/Metacritic reviews, but Jojo was nominated for screenplay and editing, and was nominated for all the major guilds and took home 4 Guild prizes. LW took home nothing. Jojo won at TIFF. Woke culture believes that Gerwig got left out due to sexism. Woke culture believes the Academy will vote for LW in order to make up for their "mistake" of not adhering to a quota system.
LW is one of my favorite film of the year. It's actually my #5. It's brilliant. I am not brushing off the film's success. I believe Gerwig hit another home run. In 2017, Lady Bird was my favorite of the year. But I am arguing that the Academy does not adhere to Woke standards. Just look at Green Book. It was blasted for being racist and the pundits class told us it wouldn't win because Valelonga agreed with a Trump tweet. Never again will I buy into Woke Culture standards. It's about the art.
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 4, 2020 6:34:06 GMT
Most likely Parasite and Jojo but QT and Gerwig are not totally out of the game.
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 4, 2020 11:00:41 GMT
Most likely Parasite and Jojo but QT and Gerwig are not totally out of the game. Who knows what would have happened if Tarantino was eligible for the WGA though. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 4, 2020 14:41:38 GMT
Most likely Parasite and Jojo but QT and Gerwig are not totally out of the game. Who knows what would have happened if Tarantino was eligible for the WGA though. Totally agree. Always thought he'd win but Parasite now looks very strong. |
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Post by JangoB on Feb 4, 2020 16:54:01 GMT
Yeah, Parasite and Jojo Rabbit.
I think one thing that may factor in both of these winning here is the 'originality' factor. Parasite has been widely perceived as one of the most original films of the year, a fresh story that hasn't quite been told before, while QT operates in a familiar milieu in his film. Plus I think people will remember that he's won this twice before.
And it's the same thing in Adapted - Gerwig's screenplay has been rightfully praised but I think that in the eyes of many voters it will still be seen as yet another adaptation of a familiar tale while Waititi's work will be seen as something unique, particularly for a war movie.
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