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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 2, 2020 22:07:34 GMT
Last week about 70% of you believed 1917 would win. Now that all the Guilds and all the BAFTAs have been passed out, who wins now? As always, lets go to the scoreboard and other relevant stats:
1917 - 4 wins. Golden Globe (Drama), Producer's Guild, Director's Guild, British Academy Award Parasite - 2 wins. Screen Actor's Guild Best Ensemble, Writer's Guild for Original Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 2 wins. Golden Globe Best Comedy/Musical, Critics Choice Jojo Rabbit - 1 win. Writer's Guild for Adapted Screenplay
STATS
- 79% of all Best Picture winners were nominated for directing, writing and editing. Since 2000, only Argo, Birdman and Green Book won Best Picture without getting nominated for director, screenplay and editing. Argo won all the major guilds and the top prize at the BAFTA awards. Birdman won the PGA, DGA and SAG Ensemble. Green Book was released in a season, where Roma, Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody were lacking at least one big nod. Roma had no editing. Black Panther had nothing. Bohemian Rhapsody had neither screenplay or directing.
- Producer's Guild of America award has matched the Best Picture winner 21 out of 30 times or 70%. 8 out of 10 since the decision to expand past 5 nominees and go toward a preferential ballot system. Director's Guild of America award has matched the Best Picture winner 55 out of 72 times or 76%. When a film wins both the PGA and DGA, there's a 68% chance of winning Best Picture or 17 out of 22.
- Since 1989, when the PGA was introduced, no film has won Best Picture without winning the PGA, DGA or WGA. Out of Africa, Chariots of Fire, Oliver!, In the Heat of the Night and Greatest Show on Earth did not win the DGA or WGA.
In the 24 years of doing Best Picture predictions, I've gotten it wrong 5 times -- 2004, 2005, 2015, 2016 and 2018. Personally, I think it's a coin toss between 1917 and Parasite. It all depends on whether or not, you believe Parasite can win a preferential ballot and overcome the "I can't read subtitle" / foreign language handicap.
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Post by stephen on Feb 2, 2020 22:10:03 GMT
Still sticking with Parasite.
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Post by DeepArcher on Feb 2, 2020 22:13:21 GMT
Quoting myself here: Wish I had the gall to be picking Parasite and that's what I'm rooting for of the viable options, but trying to be a realist here I think it'll definitely be 1917. If you never set expectations, you'll never be disappointed. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2020 22:15:34 GMT
I want to say Parasite but I have a hard time believing in it knowing the Academy and their perspective on films not in the English language. 1917 feels like the much safer bet.
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Post by quetee on Feb 2, 2020 22:31:35 GMT
ugh this isn't the official poll.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Feb 3, 2020 3:21:15 GMT
Sticking with 1917
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 3, 2020 6:37:47 GMT
I have no doubt it's gonna be 1917.
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Post by JangoB on Feb 3, 2020 11:33:04 GMT
Fuck it, Parasite's gonna do it.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Feb 3, 2020 13:38:15 GMT
I'd love Parasite to win, but I still can't look past 1917.
It really doesn't matter to me anyway. This is the best Best Picture line-up of the decade, and I'd be more or less fine with any of them taking the prize.
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Feb 3, 2020 15:09:46 GMT
1917
Parasite has an outside shot
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The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
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Likes: 552
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Post by The-Havok on Feb 3, 2020 21:41:45 GMT
There's an interesting match with the split scenarios in the preferential ballot era.
2012 - Life of Pi takes Director / Cinematography, Argo Best Picture and Screenplay
2013 - Gravity takes Director / Cinematography, 12 Years A Slave Best Picture and Screenplay
2015 - Revenant takes Director / Cinematography, Spotlight Best Picture and Screenplay
2016 - La La Land takes Director / Cinematography, Moonlight Best Picture and Screenplay
2018 - Roma takes Director / Cinematography, Green Book Best Picture and Screenplay
Only Birdman has won Cinematography and Picture. The Shape of Water won without Screenplay and Cinematography wins. Important to note both had SAG and Acting nominations.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Feb 3, 2020 21:57:16 GMT
the wishful thinking answer: Parasite
the real answer: 1917
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 3, 2020 22:52:38 GMT
There's an interesting match with the split scenarios in the preferential ballot era. 2012 - Life of Pi takes Director / Cinematography, Argo Best Picture and Screenplay 2013 - Gravity takes Director / Cinematography, 12 Years A Slave Best Picture and Screenplay 2015 - Revenant takes Director / Cinematography, Spotlight Best Picture and Screenplay 2016 - La La Land takes Director / Cinematography, Moonlight Best Picture and Screenplay 2018 - Roma takes Director / Cinematography, Green Book Best Picture and Screenplay Only Birdman has won Cinematography and Picture. The Shape of Water won without Screenplay and Cinematography wins. Important to note both had SAG and Acting nominations. How ironic. Both were designed to look like one continuous take. |
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The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
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Post by The-Havok on Feb 3, 2020 23:14:41 GMT
There's an interesting match with the split scenarios in the preferential ballot era. 2012 - Life of Pi takes Director / Cinematography, Argo Best Picture and Screenplay 2013 - Gravity takes Director / Cinematography, 12 Years A Slave Best Picture and Screenplay 2015 - Revenant takes Director / Cinematography, Spotlight Best Picture and Screenplay 2016 - La La Land takes Director / Cinematography, Moonlight Best Picture and Screenplay 2018 - Roma takes Director / Cinematography, Green Book Best Picture and Screenplay Only Birdman has won Cinematography and Picture. The Shape of Water won without Screenplay and Cinematography wins. Important to note both had SAG and Acting nominations. How ironic. Both were designed to look like one continuous take. Yet Birdman had acting support |
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Post by Brother Fease on Feb 9, 2020 23:17:53 GMT
Poll has been locked up. 63% say 1917, 37% say Parasite.
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Post by quetee on Feb 10, 2020 5:59:57 GMT
We were wrong again. Is this 3rd or 4th year in a row?
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Post by mhynson27 on Feb 10, 2020 6:01:01 GMT
We were wrong again. Is this 3rd or 4th year in a row? Speak for yourself. 12 of us saw the light  |
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Post by quetee on Feb 10, 2020 6:05:12 GMT
We were wrong again. Is this 3rd or 4th year in a row? Speak for yourself. 12 of us saw the light True, but I'm looking at the performance of the Board in general. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Feb 10, 2020 6:35:55 GMT
During the last two months I have voted for the Irishman, OUATIH and 1917 winning BP.
Don't mind me, guys...
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