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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 16, 2020 0:20:16 GMT
On Sunday, the SAG awards will be handed out. This is yet another critical forecast of what might happen at the Oscars, except in the Best Picture category. Here are the statistics for you:
Won the SAG for Best Actor, took home the Oscar - 21/25 or 84%. Only misses were Russell Crowe for ABM, Daniel Day-Lewis for GONY, Johnny Depp for POTC and Denzel Washington for Fences.
Won the SAG for Best Actress, took home the Oscar - 18/25 or 72%. The misses were for Jodi Foster for Nell, Annette Bening for AB, Renee Zellwegger for Chicago, Julie Christie AFH, Meryl Streep for Doubt (Winslet was nominated for Supporting and won), Viola Davis for The Help and last year for Glenn Close for The Wife.
Won the SAG for Best Supporting Actor, took home the Oscar - 16/25 or 64%. The results for 2000 and 2012 are a bit deception. Del Toro was nominated for Best Actor and won. Waltz was submitted as lead.
Won the SAG for Best Supporting Actress, took home the Oscar - 18/25 or 72%. 2000 and 2001 are a bit deceptive. Marcia Gay Harden and Jennifer Connelly were submitted as lead.
Best Ensemble winner, Best Picture winner - 11/25.
My breakdown of the categories:
BEST ACTING - Phoenix, Zellwegger, Pitt and Dern are the heavy favorites to win. All four won the Globe and Critics Choice.
Potential upsets? Theron over Zellwegger? Johansson over Dern? Anybody going against the grain in the acting awards?
Who wins Ensemble? That'll be our poll question.
Birdcage is only the film to win Best Ensemble without a Best Picture nomination.
The Critics Choice Best Ensemble winner and SAG Ensemble winner have matched 12/18 times or 67%. On Sunday's Critics Choice awards, The Irishman won. Perhaps that's your hat tip.
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Post by stephen on Jan 16, 2020 0:25:32 GMT
If there's an upset, it'll be in Best Actress. Zellweger has won three SAG awards (two individual ones for performance, one for ensemble) and that would put her on par with Daniel Day-Lewis for having the most SAG individual wins for any film actor. It's been a while since Zellweger's been around, but it's still something worth noting, and Johansson did get a very nice boost from getting double nominations both here and at the Oscars. Dern's looking unbeatable, so if Johansson is going to get any love, it'll be in Best Actress.
As for Ensemble, I'm actually leaning Parasite despite ...Hollywood just having almost everything in its favor right now: a huge A-list ensemble, major contender across all categories, a guaranteed acting win, etc. But Parasite's gotten over the hardest hurdle: getting nominated in the first place. It's got such a passionate contingent and I think if anything can stop Tarantino here, it's Bong.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 16, 2020 0:29:12 GMT
Driver over Phoenix is a possibility. Phoenix is the favorite but this is only the 2nd industry award they're competing for and Driver won the 1st (AACTA). With that said, I think Phoenix should have no problem winning this, considering how populist SAG has become since the merger with AFTRA.
Johansson over Zellweger is another. I actually have Johansson (narrowly) ahead of Zellweger at the Oscars. Call it whatever, but I feel like Johansson ticks more boxes as a Lead Actress winner than Zellweger does. I'm not necessarily predicting Johansson to win at SAG but if she loses here, Zellweger will probably just sweep. Also, I will not rule out Nyong'o for a shocker.
Dern is probably sweeping at this point, but this is perhaps the last chance for someone to upset and maybe derail her train. Perhaps Robbie has the best shot.
Pitt has this. I don't even know who could beat him here.
As for Ensemble, I'll say OUaTiH > Parasite. Don't really see anything else winning.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 16, 2020 0:29:52 GMT
I think it's going to be the same set of winners that we got at the Globes and Critics Choice.
I'm not going to hold my breath, but I think the only one that might not be 100% locked, although she's probably like 99.999% locked, is Zellweger because Johansson got two individual nominations, and Zellweger has already won two individual film SAGs. Still if I were betting I would definitely choose Zellweger.
For Ensemble, I'm still sticking with OUATIH. It's about actors and stunt people and made the most money by far of the nominees.
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Post by stephen on Jan 16, 2020 0:31:31 GMT
Johansson over Zellweger is another. I actually have Johansson (narrowly) ahead of Zellweger at the Oscars. Call it whatever, but I feel like Johansson ticks more boxes as a Lead Actress winner than Zellweger does. I'm not necessarily predicting Johansson to win at SAG but if she loses here, Zellweger will probably just sweep. Also, I will not rule out Nyong'o for a shocker. Nyong'o definitely could pull an Idris Elba here, but I'm thinking the compressed season works against her: we're only a week or so out from the Oscar results, and that's not enough time, I think, for thinkpieces or reactions to come out in her favor. When did SAG voting end? |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 16, 2020 0:36:52 GMT
Nyong'o definitely could pull an Idris Elba here, but I'm thinking the compressed season works against her: we're only a week or so out from the Oscar results, and that's not enough time, I think, for thinkpieces or reactions to come out in her favor. When did SAG voting end? Not really sure about the dates. But with or without the thinkpieces, Nyong'o in Us feels like such a SAG-AFTRA performance in a populist hit, and she has the potential to win with the rooting factor. I wouldn't predict her, but it wouldn't shock me. |
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 16, 2020 0:37:20 GMT
Johansson over Zellweger is another. I actually have Johansson (narrowly) ahead of Zellweger at the Oscars. Call it whatever, but I feel like Johansson ticks more boxes as a Lead Actress winner than Zellweger does. I'm not necessarily predicting Johansson to win at SAG but if she loses here, Zellweger will probably just sweep. Also, I will not rule out Nyong'o for a shocker. Nyong'o definitely could pull an Idris Elba here, but I'm thinking the compressed season works against her: we're only a week or so out from the Oscar results, and that's not enough time, I think, for thinkpieces or reactions to come out in her favor. When did SAG voting end? True I guess it's possible that Nyong'o or even Lopez could pull an Idris Elba here, but I think it might be too late. Ballots were sent out on December 17th, and voting closes on January 17th. SAG Final Balloting. I don't think a few days is enough time for Nyong'o or Lopez unless the vote was really close because I bet most people already returned their ballots, and even with those that send them in late may not care about Nyong'o or Lopez missing. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 16, 2020 2:18:08 GMT
With Idris Elba, there was no perceived front runner in the category. Sylvester Stallone won GG, BFCA was the sentimental favorite but was not nominated for SAG. Elba was also nominated on the TV side.
With Nyong'o, Lopez, and I'll include Egerton (who got SAG, BAFTA, won GG), they were never serious threats to win. Rocket man only got 1 Oscar nod for Song, Hustlers and US 0. And here's the thing, snubs happens every year.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 16, 2020 2:47:22 GMT
With Idris Elba, there was no perceived front runner in the category. Sylvester Stallone won GG, BFCA was the sentimental favorite but was not nominated for SAG. Elba was also nominated on the TV side. With Nyong'o, Lopez, and I'll include Egerton (who got SAG, BAFTA, won GG), they were never serious threats to win. Rocket man only got 1 Oscar nod for Song, Hustlers and US 0. And here's the thing, snubs happens every year. Yeah, I know Stallone wasn't nominated although I guess that was just a Globes thing making people think he was the frontrunner since he didn't end up winning, and King last year missed, so Blunt ended up winning. I just think out of all the frontrunners Zellweger feels the weakest at least on paper because she's already won two individual SAGs, and has been absent for a really long time in the industry. I remember just a few years ago people weren't sure if McDormand would be the first actress to win a second leading SAG because no one had been able to do it, so while Zellweger can certainly tie DD-L's record that stephen referred to, it just seems somewhat odd, imo, that she'd be the first one to tie him. McDormand at least had just won a few years before for Olive Kitteridge on the tv side, and had SAG nominations for Almost Famous and North Country. She had also won her first Tony just a short while before she did Olive Kitteridge, so she had been out there in voters' minds winning stuff. The only problem is that with Zellweger losing, there's not really a clear #2, so I don't know if anyone can overcome her. My choice is Johansson just because she got double individual nominations, and fits the mold more of a typical leading actress winner, but it could also be Nyong'o since her film was the most popular and SAG are the most populist group of all the televised awards. With supporting, I think Dern has got it locked up, but Lopez like Dern has done a lot of television, in fact, she's actually done more television than Dern has if you include the shows she's been a judge on. I don't think that will be enough to sway voters, but with Lopez missing BAFTA which got a lot of attention, that could possibly be a factor if it's really close between the both of them. I don't think voting will be that close, but perhaps for voters who watch Marriage Story, they might have the same feeling that posters here and elsewhere have had, with the whole "that's it" thing. I doubt it, but until they call out Dern's name on Sunday night, I'll still worry that she might lose. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 16, 2020 3:19:40 GMT
Once should win but Parasite could be spoiler due to getting shut out at Oscars.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 16, 2020 3:24:49 GMT
I don't think Zellweger's past wins would heart her chances at all as no one's gonna remember that she's won when they vote. It's been almost 20 years since she last won.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Jan 16, 2020 3:59:04 GMT
Johansson over Zellweger is another. I actually have Johansson (narrowly) ahead of Zellweger at the Oscars. Call it whatever, but I feel like Johansson ticks more boxes as a Lead Actress winner than Zellweger does. I'm not necessarily predicting Johansson to win at SAG but if she loses here, Zellweger will probably just sweep. Also, I will not rule out Nyong'o for a shocker. Nyong'o definitely could pull an Idris Elba here, but I'm thinking the compressed season works against her: we're only a week or so out from the Oscar results, and that's not enough time, I think, for thinkpieces or reactions to come out in her favor. When did SAG voting end? It wouldn’t really be comparable to what Elba managed (or Blunt for that matter). They both won in races where the Oscar frontrunner was snubbed. Scarlett makes a lot more sense to me as an upset with double noms here and at the Oscars. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 16, 2020 6:27:58 GMT
Most likely it's gonna be OUATIH.
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Post by jasonjoliepitt on Jan 16, 2020 16:29:29 GMT
Ensemble: Parasite
Actor: Phoenix
Actress: Johansson
S.Actor: Pitt
S.Actress: Dern (but I am hoping Lopez's Oscar snub will make her the winner)
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