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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 14, 2020 12:09:07 GMT
The nominations came out yesterday morning. I was all busy all day and didn't get a chance to have my say on these. Here are my takeaways.
1. For the major categories, I got only 3 wrong if you look at picture, director, screenplays and acting. 4 wrong if you count editing. My only inaccurate predictions were Egerton for Best Actor, Jennifer Lopez for Best Supporting Actress (although I saw her as a potential miss), and Booksmart for Original. I had Once as an editing nominee over Parasite.
2. I didn't buy the Greta Gerwig surge. Gold Derby had her at the #5 pick. I stuck with Phillips because he was nominated at the Globes and BAFTAs. Gerwig's logical reasoning was the Academy had to nominate a woman because they don't want to be viewed as sexist. Apparently Gerwig's gender was a qualification. I have watched the Oscars since 1997, and know for a fact, they do not buy into Woke culture nonsense. It's about the films and performances, not because they want to fulfill some silly quota system.
3. I was really surprised to see Egerton getting left out. He won the Globe over Dicaprio and played a famous person. Lopez I could really see, that's why I ranked her 4th.
4. Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell. I didn't see that one coming. Richard Jewell was a bit of bomb at the box-office and the film really didn't get much love or respect. I know Bates won the NBR and got a Globe nomination, but that's about it.
5. The Irishman, Joker, Once and 1917 all scored double-digit nominations. Joker had 11 as expected, and the others had 10. I really don't think anybody expected Joker to see lead the Oscar race back in October.
6. Great to see Klaus getting nominated for Best Animated Feature. I saw it on Netflix a couple of weeks ago, and found it to be quite heartfelt, clever and gorgeous to look at.
7. Ford v. Ferrari got the 9th Best Picture slot. Really loved that film. Glad to see it got into the Best Picture race, although, it has pretty much zero chance of winning, barring a left-field PGA win.
Overall, I found the nominations to be a bit predictable and that's a good for me. What are your 7 takeaways/thoughts?
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Post by JangoB on Jan 14, 2020 14:45:29 GMT
1. Loved to see John Williams recognized for his final Star Wars score - he and the sound designers have been THE most consistently great SW artisans over the saga's entire history so to see him get a nomination for the score that ends it all is very heartwarming. Not to mention that the work is richly deserving. 2. The biggest surprise nomination for me was Ad Astra for Sound Mixing. All but ignored by the precursors, already rejected by the Academy for its score and visual effects, the movie suddenly appeared out of nowhere and got a very deserving nomination. Plus it's the first nomination for a James Gray movie! The gates are finally open for his stuff. 3. The worst snub was Frozen II for Best Animated Film - a shame that a sequel that's better than its winning predecessor gets booted like that. But hey, at least it has its piles of money as a consolation. At least now I understand how people felt when The Lego Movie was snubbed. 4. Kind of interesting that we've got four damn movies with 10+ nominations - the year definitely feels like a 'we liked this set of flicks so we've nominated them EVERYWHERE' kind of situations. I mean, "Joker" even got for Best Costume Design so... 5. Once again silly statistics are broken - this time the 'no practical war movie gets nominated for Best Visual Effects' rule is destroyed. 6. The funny thing is that we've had a war movie win Best Picture at least once every decade so it's up to 1917 to keep the tradition alive! It sure is surging at the right moment. 7. I really gotta learn to stick with my early gut on some things - there was a time when I was sure that Lopez was getting snubbed and that 'Spirit' was gonna miss Best Song but the internet conversations convinced me to concede...When will I learn  But at the same time some of the things I've stuck by didn't happen, especially Little Women for Production Design which I was sure about so...the predicting game remains fun. |
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jan 14, 2020 15:26:46 GMT
Sadly of the three big players I've seen so far, the best they've been were soft ***'s... and largely due to their wonderful ensembles.
Still, to think that Laura Dern is going to win for THIS performance is beyond me.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 14, 2020 17:40:43 GMT
Shocked Frozen was out and the Farewell was totally snubbed... I also didn't see Egerton and Gerwig missing. As I posted yesterday, I'm very happy Hanks, Hopkins and Bates are in again after all these years (and all those snubs). But most of all, I'm happy because this shouty midget is back in...  |
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 14, 2020 23:09:36 GMT
1. WB's mix-up with putting Bates in the wrong category threw a lot of people off. I think she definitely would have made it there, and then it wouldn't have been that much of a surprise because she would have had the NBR win plus GG+SAG noms. There still would have been understandable doubt because she still would have been a lone nominee, but she's a previous winner and she had the kind of baity role that Oscar loves in this category. 2. I didn't know about the birthday part Egerton had where he invited the Globe members. I probably still would have predicted him to be nominated because De Niro kept missing and he hit everything unlike Pryce who missed SAG and Bale who missed BAFTA, but now Egerton's missing seems a lot less surprising. 3. I agree with JangoB about The Rise of Skywalker's nominations, but I don't think it deserved that visual nomination. Oh well though, at least it wasn't Cats which should have never been on the shortlist in the first place. 4. Also like JangoB I should learn to stick to my guns on things, but I know that will never happen lol. Like Best Actress back in early November seemed pretty wrapped up after Harriet debuted well, but the critics awards made me think that Nyong'o might have a good chance to get in despite voters obvious aversion to genre films proven the year before in the same category with Toni Collette in Hereditary. 5. What's going on with A24 these days? I've seen evidence of some campaigning, but are they just not doing it that much like before or do they have too many different things to campaign for and don't have the resources like Netflix does? So odd that the last two years with the films that they distributed, they could only get less than a handful of nominations for them. 6. What's going on with Amazon? At least last year, Cold War was able to surprise, but this year they didn't even try. Are they done with Oscars now? 7. Just to warn everyone I'm probably going to be complaining about the voters apparently only seeing a small number of movies for awhile.  |
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Jan 14, 2020 23:45:05 GMT
Sadly of the three big players I've seen so far, the best they've been were soft ***'s... and largely due to their wonderful ensembles. Still, to think that Laura Dern is going to win for THIS performance is beyond me. I sat here for an embarrassing number of minutes trying to figure out what you were saying that was so bad you censored yourself, until it finally occurred to me you meant 3-stars. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 15, 2020 0:06:45 GMT
1. WB's mix-up with putting Bates in the wrong category threw a lot of people off. I think she definitely would have made it there, and then it wouldn't have been that much of a surprise because she would have had the NBR win plus GG+SAG noms. There still would have been understandable doubt because she still would have been a lone nominee, but she's a previous winner and she had the kind of baity role that Oscar loves in this category. 2. I didn't know about the birthday part Egerton had where he invited the Globe members. I probably still would have predicted him to be nominated because De Niro kept missing and he hit everything unlike Pryce who missed SAG and Bale who missed BAFTA, but now Egerton's missing seems a lot less surprising. 1. I was predicting Bates for a while but took her out after she missed BAFTA and Pugh made it in. I don't regret very much, because Lopez was a good prediction regardless of how it turned out, but Bates getting nominated is not really unexpected, like you said. 2. Not going to regret predicting Egerton, either, because he just had too much precursor support, but his snub was always on the cards, like I acknowledged even before nominations came out. But this was such a strong year in that category that I'll take 4/5 of my predictions being right. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2020 0:24:49 GMT
1. WB's mix-up with putting Bates in the wrong category threw a lot of people off. I think she definitely would have made it there, and then it wouldn't have been that much of a surprise because she would have had the NBR win plus GG+SAG noms. There still would have been understandable doubt because she still would have been a lone nominee, but she's a previous winner and she had the kind of baity role that Oscar loves in this category. 2. I didn't know about the birthday part Egerton had where he invited the Globe members. I probably still would have predicted him to be nominated because De Niro kept missing and he hit everything unlike Pryce who missed SAG and Bale who missed BAFTA, but now Egerton's missing seems a lot less surprising. 1. I was predicting Bates for a while but took her out after she missed BAFTA and Pugh made it in. I don't regret very much, because Lopez was a good prediction regardless of how it turned out, but Bates getting nominated is not really unexpected, like you said. 2. Not going to regret predicting Egerton, either, because he just had too much precursor support, but his snub was always on the cards, like I acknowledged even before nominations came out. But this was such a strong year in that category that I'll take 4/5 of my predictions being right. What do you think hurt Egerton more? His youth (slap-the-stud), his film's early release, or the fact that he was coming hot off the heels of another (mostly) Dexter Fletcher-directed musical biopic performance that won Best Actor? |
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Post by stephen on Jan 15, 2020 0:26:03 GMT
5. What's going on with A24 these days? I've seen evidence of some campaigning, but are they just not doing it that much like before or do they have too many different things to campaign for and don't have the resources like Netflix does? So odd that the last two years with the films that they distributed, they could only get less than a handful of nominations for them. Lisa Taback, who was the one who put in the hard work for Moonlight in 2016, got snapped up by Netflix. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 15, 2020 1:15:30 GMT
1. I was predicting Bates for a while but took her out after she missed BAFTA and Pugh made it in. I don't regret very much, because Lopez was a good prediction regardless of how it turned out, but Bates getting nominated is not really unexpected, like you said. 2. Not going to regret predicting Egerton, either, because he just had too much precursor support, but his snub was always on the cards, like I acknowledged even before nominations came out. But this was such a strong year in that category that I'll take 4/5 of my predictions being right. What do you think hurt Egerton more? His youth (slap-the-stud), his film's early release, or the fact that he was coming hot off the heels of another (mostly) Dexter Fletcher-directed musical biopic performance that won Best Actor? Not sure. Brad and Leo were the only two actors from an early release, right? He was in the mix, he scored relevant nods but maybe it was just the movie itself. I havent seen the movie yet. Maybe it was too out there and made academy members uncomfortable. Not sure. Anyone think it was too much campaigning? Was that a turn off? |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 15, 2020 2:17:42 GMT
What do you think hurt Egerton more? His youth (slap-the-stud), his film's early release, or the fact that he was coming hot off the heels of another (mostly) Dexter Fletcher-directed musical biopic performance that won Best Actor? I think, primarily: 1. His youth and his looks (never underestimate "slap the stud" syndrome), particularly when there were unrecognized veterans like Pryce and Banderas in contention. 2. The relative weakness of his movie (which ended up missing things like Makeup) 3. Just a crazy strong year for the category Hard to know for sure, but I don't think BR or Malek really hurt him much. The Academy likes what it likes, and it isn't ashamed of it. The early release date probably didn't hurt him, either. It didn't stop him winning the Globe and hitting all the precursors, and it's hard to say you've been forgotten when you get all that. |
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Jan 15, 2020 3:09:55 GMT
3. The worst snub was Frozen II for Best Animated Film - a shame that a sequel that's better than its winning predecessor gets booted like that. But hey, at least it has its piles of money as a consolation. At least now I understand how people felt when The Lego Movie was snubbed. Putting aside my personal bias against Frozen 2 (and I don’t even think it’s best song was nominated), so I’ll probably come across as the party pooper, but if it’s sacrifice means Klaus gets to take its place, then its for the best. Honestly, this may be the one category I think they COMPLETELY got right. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 15, 2020 4:49:34 GMT
Just really safe and boring with the same four films dominating techs for no reason at the expense of better contenders like Little Women in production design and Dolemite in costumes (and those are just the super obvious examples). I remember being surprised at most of the category announcements last year (Deschanel in cinematography, Buster Scruggs for screenplay and costumes, Pawlikowski in director, the Roma girls, etc). Every category had me on the edge of my seat. There were shocking snubs, shocking surprises, nods that came out of seemingly nowhere. Despite a lot of the nominees being ultimately pretty bad (Vice, BH, Green Book everywhere) at least there were a lot of surprises too. This year the surprise was... Bates  Lighthouse nod was super inspired, and I guess the Egerton and OUATIH editing snubs were interesting, but they weren't nearly interesting enough to compensate for lineups that were otherwise an ocean of predictable meh. |
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 15, 2020 5:41:47 GMT
I could do a mean impression of shouting Adam Driver -- "BLOW THAT PIECE OF JUNK OUT OF THE SKY!" or "EVERY DAY I WAKE UP AND I HOPE YOU'RE DEAD!" Yeah, I've got that same nasty temper.
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But at the same time some of the things I've stuck by didn't happen, especially Little Women for Production Design which I was sure about so...the predicting game remains fun.
