Post by Brother Fease on Jan 14, 2020 3:12:37 GMT
Lets start with the big one, and then we can talk about acting, directing, writing, and editing.
Here's how I break down this category.
Unquestionably the favorite here. It won Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay at the Globes and Critics Choice awards. On top of that, it's a movie about the industry itself and the end of the Golden era in Hollywood. My concerns for the picture are two-fold: (1) Can it survive a preferential ballot? We know it can get the most #1 votes, but what about #2 or #3 votes? (2) Didn't get a Best Film Editing nomination. Very rarely have we seen a film winning Best Picture without an editing nomination. It only happened one time this century with 2014 Birdman. Before that, you have to go back to 1980 Ordinary People. Overall it's 10 total since the award was given out.
2. 1917
Pretty straight forward here. It won the Globe for Best Drama and Director, and took home the Best Director honor at the Critics Choice awards. If it wins the PGA and DGA award, this might very well win the whole thing. The film also benefits from its late release and nabbing an Original Screenplay nomination. That means it's only missing Best Film Editing out of the big three, and it'll be an understandable miss -- there's very little shot selection, much like Birdman in 2014. With that said, missing the SAG ensemble and an editing nomination is still a problem.
3. The Irishman
4. Parasite
The two are pretty similar. Both have all the necessary Oscar nominations, Guild nominations and BAFTA nods to win. The only issue here is lack of a major Best Picture win.
5. Jojo Rabbit
Nominated for all the major Guild nominations. Only missed Best Director in the Oscar nominations. It won at TIFF. All strong signs. I wouldn't be shocked if this continued the PGA streak with TIFF winners. However, it's missing the BAFTA Best Picture nomination.
6. Joker
It is nominated for all the major Oscar nomination. The BAFTA nominated it for Best Film and Best Director. That's a positive. But it also has the handicap of lacking both a DGA and SAG Ensemble nomination.
Everybody else, it doesn't matter. The first six have the best shot at winning. Who do you think has the best shot? Will this continue to be 1917 vs. Once?
