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Post by Sharbs on Jan 13, 2020 20:30:24 GMT
These are the three frontrunners at this rate. The only movie here I don't see somewhat sweeping is Hollywood at most that gets four wins, which would include BP. That would be its path. The path for 1917 obviously runs through director with it gaining a hefty amount of its below the line nominations. Joker could win up to 6 of its nominations, god forbid. But it certainly doesn't need all of them to get the big prize only Phoenix and its screenplay, probably just Phoenix if I'm being honest.
What I think will happen is Joker takes it with Lead Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score. With Mendes getting Director, and his movie getting Cinematography and the sounds. OUATIH gets Brad Pitt, Screenplay and Production Design, but ultimately misses out of BP
or do you think Parasite & Irishman still have a shot
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 13, 2020 20:34:21 GMT
I think Parasite and The Irishman have a better shot than Joker at Best Picture. And there is no way DiCaprio is winning this year, so I'll go with the 3rd option (1917).
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Post by Sharbs on Jan 13, 2020 20:35:55 GMT
I think Parasite and The Irishman have a better shot than Joker at Best Picture. And there is no way DiCaprio is winning this year, so I'll go with the 3rd option (1917). was referring to Pitt |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 13, 2020 20:37:32 GMT
Well, the poll said "BP, Supp, Actor, Original Screenplay" with a comma between "Supp" and "Actor" so I thought you were talking about both the acting categories. But I guess my pick doesn't change, even if your clarification makes the 2nd option a lot more plausible. |
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Post by Sharbs on Jan 13, 2020 20:38:12 GMT
Well, the poll said "BP, Supp, Actor, Original Screenplay" with a comma between "Supp" and "Actor" so I thought you were talking about both the acting categories. yeah, i get that confusion. it was meant to be a period to abbreviate supporting, but can't really edit the actual poll part |
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Post by Martin Stett on Jan 13, 2020 20:39:18 GMT
I read it the way Good God did, but since that's cleared up I'm choosing Hollywood. As he said, I think Parasite and Irishman have a better shot than Joker.
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Post by quetee on Jan 13, 2020 21:02:40 GMT
Could someone please explain how Irishman has better shot than Joker? You cant just go by stats here.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 13, 2020 21:03:52 GMT
Fix it if you will, because everybody thinks you mean BA AND BSA.
I choose OUATIH and I'm convinced this is going to be the case.
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Post by quetee on Jan 13, 2020 21:05:24 GMT
Fix it if you will, because everybody thinks you mean BA AND BSA. I choose OUATIH and I'm convinced this is going to be the case. come on, we know Leo is not getting another right now. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 13, 2020 21:05:54 GMT
Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood is in the driver's seat: an assured above-the-line win, a double-digit nomination haul, and has more industry appeal than the others. But 1917 is peaking at the right time and I think Parasite has so much passion going for it, and I think if the season hadn't been so compressed, we might've seen Song gain momentum. I honestly think it could go to any of these three movies.
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Post by Sharbs on Jan 13, 2020 21:08:29 GMT
Fix it if you will, because everybody thinks you mean BA AND BSA. I choose OUATIH and I'm convinced this is going to be the case. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 13, 2020 21:11:23 GMT
Fix it if you will, because everybody thinks you mean BA AND BSA. I choose OUATIH and I'm convinced this is going to be the case. i read it correctly cause nobody thinks Leo is winning. I think you have right three. Everyone needs to stop downplaying Joker. It doesn't matter how we feel about movie cause we dont vote. The movie received most nods at Bafta and Oscars and people are still putting Irishman before it. That makes no sense. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 13, 2020 21:12:43 GMT
how about Irishman makes an Upset with Editing, Screenplay and Picture? Well whatever money they can do to get it screenplay they should - I haven't seen Little Women but there is no way yet another version of that is better than Zaillian's script - everyone is picking Little Women in that category, I'm not so sure - WGA may settle it. The other stuff I can see because I myself have Irishman 4th now - maybe at best 3rd - behind OUATIH, 1917 and in the Parasite range sort of. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 13, 2020 21:13:29 GMT
Fix it if you will, because everybody thinks you mean BA AND BSA. I choose OUATIH and I'm convinced this is going to be the case. come on, we know Leo is not getting another right now. Yeah I know. I'm just saying how it looks like. |
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 13, 2020 21:15:09 GMT
how about Irishman makes an Upset with Editing, Screenplay and Picture? Well whatever money they can do to get it screenplay they should - I haven't seen Little Women but there is no way yet another version of that is better than Zaillian's script - everyone is picking Little Women in that category, I'm not so sure - WGA may settle it. And how about Joker for the adapted screenplay? I'd say it can be a contender. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 13, 2020 21:18:22 GMT
i read it correctly cause nobody thinks Leo is winning. I think you have right three. Everyone needs to stop downplaying Joker. It doesn't matter how we feel about movie cause we dont vote. The movie received most nods at Bafta and Oscars and people are still putting Irishman before it. That makes no sense. DGA is historically the best predictor/indicator of Best Picture winners ever. Bar none. And Joker didn't even get nominated there. That's a massive hit to its Best Picture chances. On top of that: 1. It's a comic book movie and, going by Oscar history and the comments we've seen from people like Scorsese and Coppola, there is a significant bias against those kinds of movies. All you need is passion to get nominated, but you need consensus to win. 2. Joker hasn't actually won any significant prize. It didn't even win Picture/Director/Screenplay at the Globes. 3. Joker missed SAG Ensemble. This doesn't mean as much as it used to, but its competitors like OUaTiH and The Irishman have it. Joker is clearly 5th, as far as I'm concerned. That's very impressive in itself, but I don't think it's a contender for Best Picture. |
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 14, 2020 1:48:54 GMT
I went with OUATIH; although, the fact that it missed an editing nomination is very worrisome since unlike 1917, it doesn't have a good reason as to why it missed other than that branch just didn't get behind it. However, it probably wins SAG Ensemble unless Parasite can win and probably PGA, and that's the path for it to win. I think PGA is crucial though because whatever wins there on the preferential ballot is likely going to be our Oscar winner. i read it correctly cause nobody thinks Leo is winning. I think you have right three. Everyone needs to stop downplaying Joker. It doesn't matter how we feel about movie cause we dont vote. The movie received most nods at Bafta and Oscars and people are still putting Irishman before it. That makes no sense. DGA is historically the best predictor/indicator of Best Picture winners ever. Bar none. And Joker didn't even get nominated there. That's a massive hit to its Best Picture chances. On top of that: 1. It's a comic book movie and, going by Oscar history and the comments we've seen from people like Scorsese and Coppola, there is a significant bias against those kinds of movies. All you need is passion to get nominated, but you need consensus to win. 2. Joker hasn't actually won any significant prize. It didn't even win Picture/Director/Screenplay at the Globes. 3. Joker missed SAG Ensemble. This doesn't mean as much as it used to, but its competitors like OUaTiH and The Irishman have it. Joker is clearly 5th, as far as I'm concerned. That's very impressive in itself, but I don't think it's a contender for Best Picture. Yeah, obviously like all the Best Picture nominees, even something that likely has no chance like Marriage Story or Ford v Ferrari, there will be people who will rank it first on their ballots for the win, but I don't think that it will have enough votes to win on the first round, and I could see it being rated low on enough ballots that it's not really a contender after the first round of voting. There was a cool video about this last year with Roma and Green Book, and how it might have been really close, but based on their guesses on the other nominees, they predicted that Green Book would have the slight edge because more of the other votes for the other nominees would fold into it. So I think that OUATIH, Parasite, and even 1917 have the best chances of that happening. The only thing with 1917 is that I'm not entirely sure about how strong 1917 is yet before PGA, but it that crucial screenplay nomination, and is peaking at the right time and will likely win DGA and probably the favorite for BAFTA, so it's still very much a big factor. Parasite is the most crowdpleasing to me, but again the fact that it will win Best International Film will probably hurt its chances to win Best Picture too. Then there's OUATIH which is about the industry, and The Artist and Birdman both won BP this decade with La La Land coming very close as well. It's also an original film with two of the biggest stars today that was a hit at the box office, and might be a way to honor Tarantino with BP if they want to do so before he retires. Below is my best guess on how #1 votes for the non-contenders might fold into the other nominees. Probably completely wrong lol. Bottom 3 Ford v Ferrari - Ultimate dad film. I can't really pin down what other film most of the votes from this would go to, so I think that The Irishman, Joker, 1917, and OUATIH would all receive a significant number of votes from voters who ranked this #1 once it's knocked out of the first round. Marriage Story - Potential voters who aren't biased about Netflix and that maybe prefer "writer" films, and maybe fans of the Baumbach-Gerwig household and/or Scarlett Johansson. I would say that most of its votes would go to Little Women, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit, and maybe The Irishman and OUATIH. Little Women - The only female centric nominee, so I would think that votes would go to Parasite and Jojo Rabbit based on this. Obviously not an exact science because I'm sure there are people that love Little Women and 1917. Middle 3Joker - Obviously there are people that really love it, but the problem is will the voters that ranked the bottom 3 movies #1, rank Joker that high. My feeling is that most of them will not especially people who love Marriage Story and Little Women. So because of that, Joker would be ranked in the bottom of the middle 3. The votes for Joker I think would be spread out among The Irishman, 1917, OUATIH, and Parasite. The Irishman - I think similar to Joker, but maybe not as bad, I think that the bottom 3 votes will be folded into other films first, and that The Irishman won't have enough to make it to other rounds of voting once that happens. Once it gets kicked out, I think most of its votes will go to 1917, OUATIH, and Parasite with maybe OUATIH having a slight edge because of the Leo factor. Jojo Rabbit - I didn't want to rank it this high, but I can see a lot of votes from Marriage Story and Little Women going here so when those films don't have enough to make it out of the first and second rounds, this will probably benefit the most. I still don't think it has enough to reach 51%, so it's still not a threat to win. However, the film or films that receive the most votes from the votes that Jojo Rabbit accumulated in other rounds might then have enough votes to win Best Picture without having to go any further. My feeling is that OUATIH and Parasite would benefit the most once Jojo Rabbit is eliminated because they're more ensemble films like JJR and do have significant female characters. I haven't seen 1917 yet, but I also think both films contain more humor than 1917 does, and think that could sway voters more to those films over it. Top 31917 - If it can come close to winning in the first round or earlier rounds, I think it can win, but as more films get eliminated, it might be in trouble. It just depends on how many rounds voting goes. I would guess that OUATIH would get most of the votes that 1917 has accumulated should it come down to two films. Parasite/OUATIH - I don't know. It could be close if voting goes into more rounds. I think that it could depend on Jojo Rabbit. Votes from JJR might be enough for Parasite to win, but if it doesn't get over 50%, and it does come down to all the ballots, I think OUATIH might win. |
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 14, 2020 2:07:56 GMT
I don't think Joker is a Top 3 contender at all despite the 11 noms. The preferential ballot will destroy whatever chance it has.
The Top 3 to me are Hollywood, Parasite and 1917 and in that order. 1917 still feels off to me, like it's a contender from a totally different age.
If we go by recent trends in BP, they love nothing more than movies about Hollywood/the industry/actors fellating themselves (The Artist, Birdman, Shape of Water somewhat) or low-key movies with a strong social message (12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Moonlight, and yes, Green Book). Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a prime candidate for the former category and Parasite for the latter. It's going to come down to those 2 imo.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 14, 2020 2:14:55 GMT
Lol, NO WAY LEO is winning the Oscar over Wock this year. Remove Actor from the middle option, it becomes a very likely one.
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Post by Sharbs on Jan 14, 2020 2:20:55 GMT
Lol, NO WAY LEO is winning the Oscar over Wock this year. Remove Actor from the middle option, it becomes a very likely one. ugh, mistake in punctuation. Can't edit the poll itself. |
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 14, 2020 2:23:17 GMT
Ugh. Figures, lol.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 14, 2020 2:24:10 GMT
The train seems to be moving towards 1917 anyways, though... so I selected the last option  |
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