First-time Acting nominee most likely to return to the fold?

Johansson and Pugh will definitely be back.

Yeah, I don't see Banderas or Pryce being nominated again; although, maybe they'll luck into a juicy supporting role like Richard Jenkins was able to do after The Visitor. That's the only way I see them being nominated though. A win is probably out of the question, but never say never I guess.

I agree about the women too; although I think it will be easiest for Johansson to return and win now that she's finally broken through. Pugh might be the possible next Lawrence or Ronan where she starts to rack up a lot of nominations as she becomes one of the go to young actresses. Or she could be like Carey Mulligan and maybe seem like the next big thing but not get her second nomination for awhile, perhaps not ever. Unfortunately I think Cynthia Erivo will have it the toughest, but she's very ambitious, so I do think she will land another worthy part and maybe complete that EGOT. 

Pugh definitely, and several times. Johansson probably.

I'd also say Erivo but then look at how that's worked out for Nyong'o

Florence Pugh. Scarlett Johansson. Cate Blanchett and Julianne Moore were the last 2 double acting nominees. They didn't win. But won with their next nods.

More than we already saw in Lady Macbeth and Outlaw King? 

I don't think N'yongo is neccesarily done with the Oscars. It's always an uphill battle to get nodded in the horror genre for a performance (she was essentially this year's Toni Collete in Hereditary), but she's becoming an established presence in Hollywood and seems to have a busy slate of projects ahead of her, some way more baity than Us. She's come out of this season with more respect than before, especially after many wrote her off as a one-season wonder with her 12 Years A Slave performance.

So last year I correctly predicted Driver would be back soon. Didn't expect so soon.

Scarlett Johansson
Florence Pugh
Jonathan Pryce (could go either way. I feel like if he gets a baity supporting role in say Spielberg biopic he could return and possibly win)
Cynthia Erivo
Antonio Banderas (kind of same as Pryce but even less likely, I think this will be considered his career acknowledgement and that the Academy will leave it at that. Only something similar like Waltz in Inglorious Basterds could possibly bring him back into the fold imo)

Pugh without a doubt.  Scarlett's young enough that it would be weird for her to never be nominated again, but I could see her working another 25 years before another nomination happens.  

Enjoy friend.

Florence Pugh is the new Saoirse Ronan