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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2020 14:42:56 GMT
Exceptions, and one of them very far in time. The only case where a populist, big-budget movie has been nominated for Best Director when it wasn't a lock is Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge, and that was way better reviewed than Jojo Rabbit.
The pattern is nominations for indie directors or auteurs (PTA, Pawlikowski, Zeitlin, Haneke, Payne).
Rotten Tomatoes - 80% approval rating, 7.5/10 critical mean, 95% audience score Broadcast Film Critics - 87/100
IMDB - 8/10
These were other scores for JoJo Rabbit. I don't consider Metacritic to be entire voice of film criticism.
Jojo Rabbit - 21+ US; 9 Million International; 30 million + total so far and in English with US stars in it ............
It's classification as an "audience pleaser" is one of the bigger lies of this Oscar season.........not saying it can't get nods and I'm sure its numbers will increase but when a crowd pleaser doesn't bring the crowds and a bunch of people outright hate it......it's a problem. www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt2584384/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 11, 2020 14:51:37 GMT
Someone out of left field maybe like Almodovar. Otherwise I’d go Waititi or Phillips.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2020 15:00:19 GMT
Rotten Tomatoes - 80% approval rating, 7.5/10 critical mean, 95% audience score Broadcast Film Critics - 87/100
IMDB - 8/10
These were other scores for JoJo Rabbit. I don't consider Metacritic to be entire voice of film criticism.
Jojo Rabbit - 21+ US; 9 Million International; 30 million + total so far and in English with US stars in it ............
It's classification as an "audience pleaser" is one of the bigger lies of this Oscar season.........not saying it can't get nods and I'm sure its numbers will increase but when a crowd pleaser doesn't bring the crowds and a bunch of people outright hate it......it's a problem. www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt2584384/?ref_=bo_se_r_1Umm, it won at TIFF, which is an audience award.
Box-office numbers are of course a junk stat. Why aren't we predicting the Russo Brothers for Avengers End Game or JJ for Rise of Skywalker for Best Director? How about Guy Ritchie for his work on Aladdin?
The point here is about Critical reaction and Film Buff reaction. Jojo objectively ranks pretty high there, as illustrated in previous post.
Here's a list of its major nominations:
Critics Choice Golden Globes PGA DGA SAG Ensemble WGA USC Scripter ACE
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2020 15:08:04 GMT
Life Is Beautiful - 57+ million US Gross; 171 million international; 228 million +
Jojo Rabbit - 21+ US; 9 Million International; 30 million + total so far and in English with US stars in it ............
It's classification as an "audience pleaser" is one of the bigger lies of this Oscar season.........not saying it can't get nods and I'm sure its numbers will increase but when a crowd pleaser doesn't bring the crowds and a bunch of people outright hate it......it's a problem. www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt2584384/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 Umm, it won at TIFF, which is an audience award.
Box-office numbers are of course a junk stat. Why aren't we predicting the Russo Brothers for Avengers End Game or JJ for Rise of Skywalker for Best Director? How about Guy Ritchie for his work on Aladdin?
The point here is about Critical reaction and Film Buff reaction. Jojo objectively ranks pretty high there, as illustrated in previous post.
Here's a list of its major nominations:
Critics Choice Golden Globes PGA DGA SAG Ensemble WGA USC Scripter ACE
I've said this months ago, its win Toronto was to me an aberration - a crowd who wanted to like it not who naturally did. It's an inside baseball film - I loathed it when I saw it myself and people on here said I was clouding my POV for it's awards chance with my personal feelings........but I'm not, because it has never behaved like a crowd pleaser and certainly not Green Book. Could it get a BD nod..........sure, but I'm just offering the downside - and it has a downside - and like was said earlier - the trend is auteurs in this category, I'd watch Pedro here first myself. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2020 15:14:26 GMT
Umm, it won at TIFF, which is an audience award.
Box-office numbers are of course a junk stat. Why aren't we predicting the Russo Brothers for Avengers End Game or JJ for Rise of Skywalker for Best Director? How about Guy Ritchie for his work on Aladdin?
The point here is about Critical reaction and Film Buff reaction. Jojo objectively ranks pretty high there, as illustrated in previous post.
Here's a list of its major nominations:
Critics Choice Golden Globes PGA DGA SAG Ensemble WGA USC Scripter ACE
I've said this months ago, its win Toronto was to me an aberration - a crowd who wanted to like it not who naturally did. It's an inside baseball film - I loathed it when I saw it myself and people on here said I was clouding my POV for it's awards chance with my personal feelings........but I'm not, because it has never behaved like a crowd pleaser and certainly not Green Book. Could it get a BD nod..........sure, but I'm just offering the downside - and it has a downside - and like was said earlier - the trend is auteurs in this category, I'd watch Pedro here first myself. Didn't like Jojo, so you bash it and find red flag logic fallacies to justify it. Got it.
Phillips, Pedro, Gerwig, or Waititi are all popular choices for that last spot.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2020 15:22:14 GMT
Didn't like Jojo, so you bash it and find red flag logic fallacies to justify it. Got it.
Did you though? Because I think YOU brought up Life Is Beautiful (not me), I gave you facts about that film, said Jojo could be nodded for BD like a reasonable person, but it's not my hunch - and yet because YOU liked it, then call those facts that were presented to you ........... "logic fallacies".  |
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 11, 2020 15:24:46 GMT
Gerwig will be the 5th nominee. Phillips and Baumbach are not definitely out but Greta has a better chance.
And of course it's a great opportunity for the academy to avoid an all-male category.
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Post by stephen on Jan 11, 2020 16:40:59 GMT
Gerwig is getting that late surge at the best time. The lack of diversity in the lineup was making headlines at the time voting was coming to a close, right as her film bowed. I think she gets into that fifth spot. But I also think this category is ripe for a shock snub. Do you really think Oscar Voters apply affirmative action standards here rather than picking what they like the best?
To me, the logic for Gerwig is not her gender or media-driven affirmative action pleas, but the concept that she won the National Society of Film Critics Best Director award and her film being the fresh in voters minds. I think they care about their image more than anything else. If they can pick something that got critical praise, so much the better. |
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Post by chris3 on Jan 11, 2020 17:53:43 GMT
I've said this months ago, its win Toronto was to me an aberration - a crowd who wanted to like it not who naturally did. Are you seriously giving the "people were just PRETENDING to like it" argument? That's utterly absurd. The movie has a 95% audience score on RT. It's not a box office juggernaut like Knives Out but audiences love the film. Personally I thought the first half was very funny (and the moment with Scarjo's shoes was emotionally effective), but it gets very sappy by the end, never goes as edgy as I would've preferred, and overall Waititi's aesthetic reminds me WAY too much of Wes Anderson circa Moonrise Kingdom. Naturally, I'd be very disappointed if he took the #5 spot against Gerwig or even Baumbach, but you are 100% letting your personal opinion cloud your judgment on this movie's chances. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2020 19:08:25 GMT
I've said this months ago, its win Toronto was to me an aberration - a crowd who wanted to like it not who naturally did. Are you seriously giving the "people were just PRETENDING to like it" argument? That's utterly absurd. The movie has a 95% audience score on RT. It's not a box office juggernaut like Knives Out but audiences love the film. Personally I thought the first half was very funny (and the moment with Scarjo's shoes was emotionally effective), but it gets very sappy by the end, never goes as edgy as I would've preferred, and overall Waititi's aesthetic reminds me WAY too much of Wes Anderson circa Moonrise Kingdom. Naturally, I'd be very disappointed if he took the #5 spot against Gerwig or even Baumbach, but you are 100% letting your personal opinion cloud your judgment on this movie's chances. Exactly right. It doesn't matter if you liked or disliked the movie. The TIFF winner has scored a Best Picture nominations in 10 of the last 11 years. Its won the PGA for the last 3 seasons, and won Best Picture 4 times in that 11 year stretch. You would be silly/foolish to dismiss it as a major awards player.
I didn't love The Irishman as much as most people, but I still think its chances of winning multiple Oscars are pretty high.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2020 19:13:08 GMT
I'm really torn but my gut says Gerwig. And if it's not her then Phillips (I don't see Waititi getting in over either of them). I'm going with Gerwig!
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Post by chris3 on Jan 11, 2020 19:23:19 GMT
I'm really torn but my gut says Gerwig. And if it's not her then Phillips (I don't see Waititi getting in over either of them). I'm going with Gerwig! I hope you're right! Why do you think she (and Phillips) has a better chance than Waititi, though? I mean, he has the DGA and Gerwig has basically nothing (aside from a far superior film, but that's just me). |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2020 19:25:44 GMT
I've said this months ago, its win Toronto was to me an aberration - a crowd who wanted to like it not who naturally did.Are you seriously giving the "people were just PRETENDING to like it" argument? That's utterly absurd. The movie has a 95% audience score on RT. It's not a box office juggernaut like Knives Out but audiences love the film. Personally I thought the first half was very funny (and the moment with Scarjo's shoes was emotionally effective), but it gets very sappy by the end, never goes as edgy as I would've preferred, and overall Waititi's aesthetic reminds me WAY too much of Wes Anderson circa Moonrise Kingdom. Naturally, I'd be very disappointed if he took the #5 spot against Gerwig or even Baumbach, but you are 100% letting your personal opinion cloud your judgment on this movie's chances.On the contrary - as in you misunderstood me and then just declared something ridiculous based on your misunderstanding. Why is your first sentence a question then if you aren't really asking? Wtf. I never used the word "pretend" - you did. I said it's a festival movie that played to a festival mentality and that's why it won - and in the real world, while it's done just fine is in no way an equivalent to Green Book a genuine audience favorite. I said that 2 months ago - look it up - and you know what - it wasn't winning BP 2 months ago or now ..........that's not my personal feeling - my personal feeling is it blows and shouldn't be nodded for anything - but me saying it's not winning BP and may not getting nodded for BD is my "assessment" - see? I think it gets a BP nod and may even get a BD nod though I lean no - so what's the problem exactly? |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2020 19:30:19 GMT
Are you seriously giving the "people were just PRETENDING to like it" argument? That's utterly absurd. The movie has a 95% audience score on RT. It's not a box office juggernaut like Knives Out but audiences love the film. Personally I thought the first half was very funny (and the moment with Scarjo's shoes was emotionally effective), but it gets very sappy by the end, never goes as edgy as I would've preferred, and overall Waititi's aesthetic reminds me WAY too much of Wes Anderson circa Moonrise Kingdom. Naturally, I'd be very disappointed if he took the #5 spot against Gerwig or even Baumbach, but you are 100% letting your personal opinion cloud your judgment on this movie's chances. Exactly right. It doesn't matter if you liked or disliked the movie. The TIFF winner has scored a Best Picture nominations in 10 of the last 11 years. Its won the PGA for the last 3 seasons, and won Best Picture 4 times in that 11 year stretch. You would be silly/foolish to dismiss it as a major awards player.
I didn't love The Irishman as much as most people, but I still think its chances of winning multiple Oscars are pretty high.
I loathe the movie - and yet I have it getting BP nod and possibly a BD nod though I lean no on that. Never said otherwise - it has nothing to do with my feelings on the film, my feelings on the film were something else and have been seized on incorrectly by you and chris. You will never find me dismissing its awards chances in any post. Let me know if you misunderstand anything else because that's 2 things now....... |
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Post by chris3 on Jan 11, 2020 19:34:10 GMT
On the contrary - as in you misunderstood me and then just declared something ridiculous based on your misunderstanding. Why is your first sentence a question then if you aren't really asking? Wtf. I never used the word "pretend" - you did. I said it's a festival movie that played to a festival mentality and that's why it won - and in the real world, while it's done just fine is in no way an equivalent to Green Book a genuine audience favorite. I said that 2 months ago - look it up - and you know what - it wasn't winning BP 2 months ago or now ..........that's not my personal feeling - my personal feeling is it blows and shouldn't be nodded for anything - but me saying it's not winning BP and may not getting nodded for BD is my "assessment" - see? I think it gets a BP nod and may even get a BD nod though I lean no - so what's the problem exactly? You said people wanted to like it instead of "naturally" liking it, and then it won. How is that not an audience "pretending" to like something? Also, you're being INCREDIBLY defensive, as if I've attacked you personally or something. I just said you're letting your opinions cloud your judgment on its very real chance of getting a Director nom (the subject of this thread). It got a DGA nom, has a high audience score on RT, and was a hit at festivals. Waititi is a very real threat for the fifth slot. Never mentioned anything about its BP prospects (of COURSE it's not winning). |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 11, 2020 19:40:40 GMT
I'm really torn but my gut says Gerwig. And if it's not her then Phillips (I don't see Waititi getting in over either of them). I'm going with Gerwig! I hope you're right! Why do you think she (and Phillips) has a better chance than Waititi, though? I mean, he has the DGA and Gerwig has basically nothing (aside from a far superior film, but that's just me). I feel like Jojo has been slipping a bit. If it had overtaken OUATIH at the Globes that would have been great for its chances but I feel like it's been consistently low-tier on the BP scale and with the emphasis on the lack of female directors at the Globes and #BAFTAsowhite handily going down just as Little Women starts picking up momentum and is fresh on everyone's mind and a critical favorite gives Gerwig a big boost at the right time. It really helps that the movie just dropped too, whereas Jojo has been out for a while. None of this to mention that much of the focus so far has been on Jojo's screenplay, which leads me to assume that's it's being viewed as more of a writer's film than a director's one (which is exactly why Baumbach's been slipping). The DGA helps Waititi but it's also the kind of populist choice the Guilds sometimes include (like Farrelly last year or Scott in 2015) and he hasn't scored for his directing anywhere else that I'm aware of. Conversely, Phillips missing the DGA hurts his chances because that's exactly where he should've scored but Waititi (a previously weak candidate in this field) took his place. I think they cancel each other out, leaving room for someone like Gerwig to swoop in at exactly the right time. I didn't love what Gerwig did with the story but virtually everyone else I've seen/talked to did. It's an insanely popular/beloved film, much moreso than most were expecting, and it's proven to be really accessible too. AND Gerwig specifically has been getting a lot of ink for her directing while I've seen very little about Waititi's. She's at the forefront of the film's success and I really think she gets in. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2020 19:46:12 GMT
On the contrary - as in you misunderstood me and then just declared something ridiculous based on your misunderstanding. Why is your first sentence a question then if you aren't really asking? Wtf. I never used the word "pretend" - you did. I said it's a festival movie that played to a festival mentality and that's why it won - and in the real world, while it's done just fine is in no way an equivalent to Green Book a genuine audience favorite. I said that 2 months ago - look it up - and you know what - it wasn't winning BP 2 months ago or now ..........that's not my personal feeling - my personal feeling is it blows and shouldn't be nodded for anything - but me saying it's not winning BP and may not getting nodded for BD is my "assessment" - see? I think it gets a BP nod and may even get a BD nod though I lean no - so what's the problem exactly? You said people wanted to like it instead of "naturally" liking it, and then it won. How is that not an audience "pretending" to like something? Also, you're being INCREDIBLY defensive, as if I've attacked you personally or something. I just said you're letting your opinions cloud your judgment on its very real chance of getting a Director nom (the subject of this thread). It got a DGA nom, has a high audience score on RT, and was a hit at festivals. Waititi is a very real threat for the fifth slot. Never mentioned anything about its BP prospects (of COURSE it's not winning). You replied to my post with a question, then didn't feel the need to let me answer the question, then called it "absurd" then said I'm "100%" letting it affect my opinion - when you didn't even know what I would say and assumed it anyway - so yeah I'm defensive, what if I called you assaulting - again, wtf. ........and as for what I have bolded above, if you are doing a survey among people who like ice cream and offer them ice cream to do your survey that might bias your poll results - because they are more prone to like it, no? That's not "pretending" to like it (get it?) - it's just geared to those people - THAT is what Jojo was imo at Toronto - a skewed sample NOT "pretending" - again, your word, never mine.. If you can't understand the difference, I give up........and you JUST ended your last post by saying exactly what I said - he's a threat at BD but I don't think it's him, I lean Pedro - so why are you even replying to me - you misunderstood my post, AND you agree with me.  |
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Post by chris3 on Jan 11, 2020 19:58:46 GMT
........and as for what I have bolded above, if you are doing a survey among people who like ice cream and offer them ice cream to do your survey that might bias your poll results - because they are more prone to like it, no? That's not "pretending" to like it (get it?) - it's just geared to those people - THAT is what Jojo was imo at Toronto - a skewed sample NOT "pretending" - again, your word, never mine.. If you can't understand the difference, I give up........and you JUST ended your last post by saying exactly what I said - he's a threat at BD but I don't think it's him, I lean Pedro - so why are you even replying to me - you misunderstood my post, AND you agree with me. So then festival wins should just be ignored outright because they only attract festival crowds and thus are not ever indicative of what "normal" audiences think? What makes Jojo Rabbit specifically geared to the festival crowd and no one else? If that were the case the RT audience rating wouldn't be so high. If anything it's a movie that appeals even more to Oscar voters' sensibilities (serious baity topic handled in a super safe, vanilla way). Sorry that you felt assaulted. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 11, 2020 20:07:33 GMT
So then festival wins should just be ignored outright because they only attract festival crowds and thus are not ever indicative of what "normal" audiences think? What makes Jojo Rabbit specifically geared to the festival crowd and no one else? If that were the case the RT audience rating wouldn't be so high. If anything it's a movie that appeals even more to Oscar voters' sensibilities (serious baity topic handled in a super safe, vanilla way).
Sorry that you felt assaulted. NP, and sorry if I reacted defensively also. I think the issue with Jojo is it presents itself as daring while being quite safe - so it's isn't "all" festival wins but some movies play more towards being a festival thing than others. Green Book was a legit audience pleaser - people went into it unaware and were moved. Jojo you have to go into it requiring an explanation up front imo - even in the promotional materials it says "an anti-hate satire" on the poster .......I have no doubt many love the film, but it wasn't an equivalent to some previous Toronto winners - and that's one reason the box office while quite good wasn't close to a true crowd favorite ..........and if you look back that's all I said compared to Life Is Beautiful it comes up short. It plays very well to a particular strain of audiences but not all audiences (like Green Book).........though i do think it plays well to a big chunk of the Academy and ~7 nods seems quite reasonable to me. |
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Post by chris3 on Jan 11, 2020 20:14:18 GMT
Green Book was a legit audience pleaser - people went into it unaware and were moved. Jojo you have to go into it requiring an explanation up front imo - even in the promotional materials it says "an anti-hate satire" on the poster .......I have no doubt many love the film, but it wasn't an equivalent to some previous Toronto winners - and that's one reason the box office while quite good wasn't close to a true crowd favorite ..........and if you look back that's all I said compared to Life Is Beautiful it comes up short. Very valid point. I also looked up the box office for Green Book and it's very true that its "audience favorite" status was on a totally different level than Jojo. And hopefully we'll both be pleased to see Waititi's name missing from the director lineup (although if it's in favor of Phillips I'll vomit up my cereal). Cheers! |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 11, 2020 23:01:10 GMT
Gerwig makes the most sense but I’m going with Almodóvar for the surprise.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 12, 2020 10:22:14 GMT
Green Book made 320 million dollars worldwide. Jojo Rabbit should be happy if it makes 150.
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 13, 2020 14:45:08 GMT
Gerwig was over predicted
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