Savager
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Post by Savager on Jan 10, 2020 22:06:05 GMT
Seems like the top 4 seem pretty safe at the moment, so who's getting the last slot.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 10, 2020 22:09:28 GMT
I know he didn't hit anything, but I'm going to stick with Baumbach.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 10, 2020 22:11:01 GMT
Safdies and Scorsese will be snubbed over Gerwig
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Jan 10, 2020 22:11:54 GMT
I know he didn't hit anything, but I'm going to stick with Baumbach. Dude, he hit the most prestigious group of them all. The Critics Choice Award.
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futuretrunks
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Post by futuretrunks on Jan 10, 2020 22:12:52 GMT
Please, anybody but Waititi.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 10, 2020 22:15:52 GMT
Dude, he hit the most prestigious group of them all. The Critics Choice Award. LOL, so that makes him the 5th lock and this thread redundant.
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Post by stephen on Jan 10, 2020 22:16:17 GMT
Gerwig is getting that late surge at the best time. The lack of diversity in the lineup was making headlines at the time voting was coming to a close, right as her film bowed. I think she gets into that fifth spot.
But I also think this category is ripe for a shock snub.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 10, 2020 22:20:50 GMT
Gerwig is getting that late surge at the best time. The lack of diversity in the lineup was making headlines at the time voting was coming to a close, right as her film bowed. I think she gets into that fifth spot. But I also think this category is ripe for a shock snub. Yes this is my reasoning as well. The Academy has no backbone they give in to pressure like a low wage waiter
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Post by JangoB on Jan 10, 2020 22:21:41 GMT
I think it'll either be Waititi or Gerwig.
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Post by stephen on Jan 10, 2020 22:22:56 GMT
I think it'll either be Waititi or Gerwig. At this point, I think if either gets in, they become your Adapted Screenplay frontrunner.
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Jan 10, 2020 22:33:33 GMT
Safdies and Scorsese will be snubbed over Gerwig I'm surprised you gave up on Phillips. You don't think he recovers from the DGA snub?
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 10, 2020 22:45:58 GMT
Safdies and Scorsese will be snubbed over Gerwig I'm surprised you gave up on Phillips. You don't think he recovers from the DGA snub? Not only that. It could have been that his BAFTA nod might have been due early exposure. With Academy voting being more recent, other directors could have gotten more traction. He can still get in ala Gibson and Daldry though. Nice reminder, Hacksaw Ridge played better overseas as well. And BAFTA + AACTA overlap is more narrow than DGA with the Academy
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2020 22:55:33 GMT
If the Academy plays it smart to avoid as much backlash as possible (which they will pathetically attempt to, even if they hilariously screw it up), the lineup is going to be -
Scorsese Tarantino Gerwig Bong Mendes
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 10, 2020 22:59:57 GMT
I know he didn't hit anything, but I'm going to stick with Baumbach. It would be funny if Best Director was like Best Actress in that it just circled back around to the early consensus 5. I'm predicting Gerwig in the last spot, but at this point I think it could be almost anyone. I also agree with stephen that this category seems ripe for a surprise snub.
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chris3
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Post by chris3 on Jan 10, 2020 23:27:40 GMT
I'm thinking it'll be Waititi due to his DGA nom, and if not him Todd Phillips is second in line for the fifth slot (I strongly disliked Joker but its awards season performance has been absolutely staggering and even with the DGA snub I would not be the slightest bit surprised to see Phillips in the mix; the film has undeniable heavy passion going for it and the people who love it LOVE it). I'm crossing my fingers for Gerwig since I think she legitimately deserves it, but I honestly don't think the Academy cares too much about the "No Woman Director Nominees" thing or online social criticism in general, and that whole narrative is not going to do Little Women any favors in voters' minds. I also think it's entirely possible they go with Sciamma in a Cold War style shocker. The top four are complete locks and I'd be stunned if any missed.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 10, 2020 23:47:23 GMT
I don't believe anyone is a lock. People argued that Cooper was second to Cuaron last year and he predictably missed.
People make the same mistakes when predicting you'd expect at least a semblance of risk in their predictions.
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Post by stephen on Jan 10, 2020 23:51:29 GMT
I don't believe anyone is a lock. In a post-Affleck world, this needs to be the mantra every awards season. You can be in a very strong and safe position, but shit happens.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 10, 2020 23:59:37 GMT
I'm crossing my fingers for Gerwig since I think she legitimately deserves it, but I honestly don't think the Academy cares too much about the "No Woman Director Nominees" thing or online social criticism in general, and that whole narrative is not going to do Little Women any favors in voters' minds. This. Also in Gerwig's favor - Little Women has done well at the box office. Whereas Bombshell bombed and PGA snubbed it and it got minimal nods from BAFTA. No Screenplay. Kidman was snubbed in a weak category.
SAG jumped the gun before the film was release. If it wasn't on accelerated timeline, Little Women would have gotten the SAG Ensemble over Bombshell. And Gerwig did win Best Director from one of the Top 3 critics group - NSFC.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 11, 2020 3:01:39 GMT
I used to think Baumbach was closed to locked but now things are looking more in Gerwig's favor. I think Waititi could also definitely make it and Philips has continued to overperform and get nominations. Wouldn't rule out Waititi either, he feels like the strong voiced "newbie" they often take to. It's definitely the most exciting director's race of the decade.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2020 11:57:06 GMT
Gerwig is getting that late surge at the best time. The lack of diversity in the lineup was making headlines at the time voting was coming to a close, right as her film bowed. I think she gets into that fifth spot. But I also think this category is ripe for a shock snub. Do you really think Oscar Voters apply affirmative action standards here rather than picking what they like the best?
To me, the logic for Gerwig is not her gender or media-driven affirmative action pleas, but the concept that she won the National Society of Film Critics Best Director award and her film being the fresh in voters minds.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2020 12:04:05 GMT
I'm thinking it'll be Waititi due to his DGA nom, and if not him Todd Phillips is second in line for the fifth slot (I strongly disliked Joker but its awards season performance has been absolutely staggering and even with the DGA snub I would not be the slightest bit surprised to see Phillips in the mix; the film has undeniable heavy passion going for it and the people who love it LOVE it). I'm crossing my fingers for Gerwig since I think she legitimately deserves it, but I honestly don't think the Academy cares too much about the "No Woman Director Nominees" thing or online social criticism in general, and that whole narrative is not going to do Little Women any favors in voters' minds. I also think it's entirely possible they go with Sciamma in a Cold War style shocker. The top four are complete locks and I'd be stunned if any missed. Right now I am torn between Waititi and Phillips for the 5th spot.
And I think you're right the Academy doesn't care about social media criticism. Just look at last year's Green Book. Social media went after the film for being "not woke enough", having a director who pulled inappropriate pranks on their cast mates, and a writer who agreed with a Trump tweet.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 11, 2020 13:00:05 GMT
Jojo Rabbit looks popular in the industry, but knowing the highbrow taste of the directors' branch, will they really nominate a film with a 57 Metascore? The have snubbed DGA-nominated directors of much more acclaimed movies (Martin McDonagh, Ridley Scott, Kathryn Bigelow) in favor of artsier picks. I think Gerwig and even Pedro or Baumbach have a chance here, I just don't know who, so I'll stick to Waititi.
And I join whoever feels Scorsese is not a lock, especially with the recent underperformance of The Irishman and the growing anti-Netflix sentiment (if the HFPA, of all groups, ignored them, something must be happening in Hollywood).
My predictions at the moment:
Tarantino Bong Mendes
Scorsese
Waititi
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2020 13:14:59 GMT
Jojo Rabbit looks popular in the industry, but knowing the highbrow taste of the directors' branch, will they really nominate a film with a 57 Metascore? The have snubbed DGA-nominated directors of much more acclaimed movies (Martin McDonagh, Ridley Scott, Kathryn Bigelow) in favor of artsier picks. I think Gerwig and even Pedro or Baumbach have a chance here, I just don't know who, so I'll stick to Waititi. And I join whoever feels Scorsese is not a lock, especially with the recent underperformance of The Irishman and the growing anti-Netflix sentiment (if the HFPA, of all groups, ignored them, something must be happening in Hollywood). My predictions at the moment: Tarantino Bong Mendes Scorsese Waititi Have you checked out the Metacritic scores for Life is Beautiful and The Reader?
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 11, 2020 13:26:33 GMT
Jojo Rabbit looks popular in the industry, but knowing the highbrow taste of the directors' branch, will they really nominate a film with a 57 Metascore? The have snubbed DGA-nominated directors of much more acclaimed movies (Martin McDonagh, Ridley Scott, Kathryn Bigelow) in favor of artsier picks. I think Gerwig and even Pedro or Baumbach have a chance here, I just don't know who, so I'll stick to Waititi. And I join whoever feels Scorsese is not a lock, especially with the recent underperformance of The Irishman and the growing anti-Netflix sentiment (if the HFPA, of all groups, ignored them, something must be happening in Hollywood). My predictions at the moment: Tarantino Bong Mendes Scorsese Waititi Have you checked out the Metacritic scores for Life is Beautiful and The Reader?
Exceptions, and one of them very far in time. The only case where a populist, big-budget movie has been nominated for Best Director when it wasn't a lock is Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge, and that was way better reviewed than Jojo Rabbit.
The pattern is nominations for indie directors or auteurs (PTA, Pawlikowski, Zeitlin, Haneke, Payne).
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2020 14:33:02 GMT
Have you checked out the Metacritic scores for Life is Beautiful and The Reader?
Exceptions, and one of them very far in time. The only case where a populist, big-budget movie has been nominated for Best Director when it wasn't a lock is Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge, and that was way better reviewed than Jojo Rabbit.
The pattern is nominations for indie directors or auteurs (PTA, Pawlikowski, Zeitlin, Haneke, Payne).
Rotten Tomatoes - 80% approval rating, 7.5/10 critical mean, 95% audience score Broadcast Film Critics - 87/100
IMDB - 8/10
These were other scores for JoJo Rabbit. I don't consider Metacritic to be entire voice of film criticism.
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