|
|
Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 8, 2020 1:51:19 GMT
There's usually someone with little or no precursor support who shows up and someone who had every precursor who misses (de Tavira, Cooper last year). Surprises tend to tied to strong BP contenders (Roma actresses, Hardy, Hill, etc.
Here's a list of actors/directors who have hit 4 precursors
Zellweger
Johansson
Theron
Driver
Phoenix
DiCaprio
Pacino
Pesci
Pitt
Hanks
Dern
Robbie
Scorsese
Tarantino
Bong
Mendes
Director tends to bring the most surprises but it feels like those 4 are locked (though it felt like Cooper was a lock last year too).
I've seen people mention DiCaprio as the snub but it's hard to imagine him missing in a BP frontrunner. Hanks in Captain Phillips (BP nominee) is the biggest in recent memory. This would be bigger.
Snub - Theron, Hanks (again), Robbie (Bombshell). I wouldn't be surprised if Robbie gets "snubbed" for herself in Once Upon a Time. BAFTA nominated her there and the frontrunner status may give it a boost. I don't think Theron is safe. Bombshell will likely get 1-2 nods and this category feels like the only one where they have an opportunity to nominate multiple POC (Erivo, Nyong'o, Awkwafina).
Little Women seems to have picked up buzz at the right time so I think Ronan is safer.
Surprises - Gerwig, Song, DeNiro. DeNiro has been surprisingly absent all season but he makes sense if the Academy goes crazy for The Irishmsn. Parasite = strong BP nominee
Thoughts?
|
|
|
|
Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 8, 2020 2:05:23 GMT
Oh Tom Hanks definitely. The film has no support other than him. It'll be either Song Kang Ho or Dafoe.
|
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,937
|
Post by Good God on Jan 8, 2020 2:06:33 GMT
I've seen people mention DiCaprio as the snub but it's hard to imagine him missing in a BP frontrunner. Hanks in Captain Phillips (BP nominee) is the biggest in recent memory. This would be bigger. The Hanks comparison simply doesn't work anymore. Hanks lost out to a bunch of actors in stronger movies. There is no way Pain & Glory or Rocketman or Ford v Ferrari or The Two Popes is stronger than OUaTiH at this point. If DiCaprio misses, it's going to be an unprecedented snub and likely because they feel he's been rewarded enough or whatever. The Academy respects him, but I never got the sense that they loved him. But he's looking good for the nomination right now. To answer your question, I think Egerton is the most vulnerable among the actors that have hit all 3 precursors. I'm going to predict him for the nomination, but he's in a relatively weak film and still well in his "slap the stud" years. If he misses, it'll look obvious in hindsight. As for who can show up unexpectedly, Song has the most potential if Parasite is top 2 on nominations morning. He'd probably replace Hopkins or Hanks, with the former being more vulnerable. |
|
|
|
Post by notacrook on Jan 8, 2020 2:09:28 GMT
Agree that Theron feels very shaky, and Ronan is ahead of her. I'd still predict her to get in, but also would not be surprised at a snub, especially as she doesn't have a strong track record with the academy (outside of her win, of course). Also wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hanks miss, and possibly one of the Irishman guys as well since hype for that film seems to be dying down. Song Kang-ho could certainly pull a de Tavira here (and he'd be much more deserving of the nom as well).
I really don't see any of those 4 directors missing. I also think Gerwig is extremely likely to get that 5th slot in the wake of all the controversy around lack of female inclusion in this category. If not, I could see a surprise 5th place spot for someone like Waititi instead of Philips.
Really can't see DiCaprio missing, but I guess you never know.
|
|
Javi
Badass
Posts: 1,537 
Likes: 1,628
|
Post by Javi on Jan 8, 2020 3:23:44 GMT
Snub: Hanks.
Surprise: Dafoe getting a lone nomination for his movie for the 3rd year in a row.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 8, 2020 3:24:54 GMT
Agree that Theron feels very shaky, and Ronan is ahead of her. I'd still predict her to get in, but also would not be surprised at a snub, especially as she doesn't have a strong track record with the academy (outside of her win, of course). Also wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hanks miss, and possibly one of the Irishman guys as well since hype for that film seems to be dying down. Song Kang-ho could certainly pull a de Tavira here (and he'd be much more deserving of the nom as well). I really don't see any of those 4 directors missing. I also think Gerwig is extremely likely to get that 5th slot in the wake of all the controversy around lack of female inclusion in this category. If not, I could see a surprise 5th place spot for someone like Waititi instead of Philips. Really can't see DiCaprio missing, but I guess you never know. How is there any scenario in which Ronan is currently ahead of Theron? |
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 8, 2020 3:30:22 GMT
Snub: Jlo, The Bombshell ladies
Surprise: Sandler, Robbie for Hollywood and Song
|
|
Savager
Junior Member
Posts: 430
Likes: 508
|
Post by Savager on Jan 8, 2020 3:31:00 GMT
Snub: Robbie (Bombshell)
Surprise: Robbie (OUATIH), Baumbach in Director
|
|
morton
Based
Posts: 2,811
Likes: 2,954
|
Post by morton on Jan 8, 2020 3:31:20 GMT
Agree that Theron feels very shaky, and Ronan is ahead of her. I'd still predict her to get in, but also would not be surprised at a snub, especially as she doesn't have a strong track record with the academy (outside of her win, of course). Also wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hanks miss, and possibly one of the Irishman guys as well since hype for that film seems to be dying down. Song Kang-ho could certainly pull a de Tavira here (and he'd be much more deserving of the nom as well). I really don't see any of those 4 directors missing. I also think Gerwig is extremely likely to get that 5th slot in the wake of all the controversy around lack of female inclusion in this category. If not, I could see a surprise 5th place spot for someone like Waititi instead of Philips. Really can't see DiCaprio missing, but I guess you never know. I think Theron still makes it based on earlier momentum, and the other 3 possible nominees for the final spot have more negatives, but I do feel she’s slipped to fourth when at one point I had her second. I can still see some voters not being in a rush to watch Bombshell, or not wanting to put Theron on their ballot because of who she’s playing. I know Bale got in last year for portraying Cheney, but I think Vice was taken more seriously by critics groups and award groups aside from SAG, but I think that was just a weird blip because of all the radio and television personalities that now get to vote for SAG. Still she should be safe given her reviews and the transformation factor, but if the voting deadline was extended more after today’s BAFTA announcements, I wonder if Theron might have missed. |
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 8, 2020 4:57:27 GMT
The Safdies in Directing
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 6:14:04 GMT
Surprise: Dafoe
Snub: Ronan or Theron
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2020 6:23:29 GMT
SNUB: Charlize Theron (I just feel like Bombshell will be what under-performs after doing so well elsewhere, and she's had rotten luck with nominations this decade)
SURPRISE: The Safdies/Bronstein in Screenplay.
|
|
|
|
Post by TerryMontana on Jan 8, 2020 6:35:57 GMT
Song might be a surprise in BSA.
I still don't rule out De Niro. Ok, he's out but you never know.
Phillips will miss BD...
|
|
|
|
Post by DeepArcher on Jan 8, 2020 6:44:47 GMT
Song and Gerwig are the two main "surprises" that I'm currently predicting. And I know this thread is really about above-the-line categories, but Portrait of a Lady on Fire in cinematography is another surprise that I have penciled in.
As for snubs ... well, I think Hopkins is missing the spot that ultimately goes to Song, but that could very well be Hanks, too. Leading actress also feels like it's poised to have some curveballs. I think with her Globe win Awkafina peaked at the right time and will get in (Zhao could still be a threat too and I'm very nearly predicting her, perhaps at Robbie's expense if Bombshell does indeed underperform), and Theron or possibly Ronan could be vulnerable to someone like Erivo or Nyong'o who both got in at SAG and clearly have the acting branch support.
I'm also really, really tempted to predict Hustlers as a surprise in Adapted Screenplay ... especially because I'm not totally buying A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood as a nominee there.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 12:39:53 GMT
Snubs:
MS not in for BP: Call me crazy, but we have been seriously overestimating MS all season. We thought it would win SAG ensemble, it wasn't even nodded. Baumbach snubbed for almost all precursor places in directing. IDK, I feel a real Carol situation for this one incoming. If it were a strong contender we've been predicting, it would not have missed out on a SAG nomination at least. Also, I don't want to jinx it for an over performance.
(Side note: For those predicting Almodovar, of he were to get in for BD or screenplay, BAFTA would make it clear, especially since they've loved him in the past.)
Surprises:
Safdies or Sciamma get in as absolute lone nomination for their films. Let's will this into existence people.
|
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Jan 8, 2020 13:01:53 GMT
The only thing I can think of is Jennifer Lopez missing and someone like Kathy Bates getting in.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Jan 8, 2020 13:30:42 GMT
Snubs: MS not in for BP: Call me crazy, but we have been seriously overestimating MS all season. We thought it would win SAG ensemble, it wasn't even nodded. Baumbach snubbed for almost all precursor places in directing. IDK, I feel a real Carol situation for this one incoming. If it were a strong contender we've been predicting, it would not have missed out on a SAG nomination at least. Also, I don't want to jinx it for an over performance. Marriage Story made PGA, Carol didn't. Neither Greenbook or The Shape of Water made SAG ensemble.
There's only 5 director slots - and usually 8 Best Pictures. So a director nod isn't needed to get a Picture spot.
|
|
|
|
Post by DanQuixote on Jan 8, 2020 17:56:27 GMT
If there is a snub, I think it'll be either Theron or Hanks. I'm still predicting both at the moment though.
Surprise? Uncut Gems in Director/Screenplay and Editing.
|
|
|
|
Post by pacinoyes on Jan 8, 2020 19:18:22 GMT
I dunno but the fact that nobody thinks Foxx, a previous winner, who's been nodded for SAG, can get in BSA even though he'd be a politically correct pick sort of makes me think it has a chance to happen. A possible surprise.....
|
|
