AKenjiB
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Post by AKenjiB on Jan 7, 2020 10:24:41 GMT
BEST ACTOR Leonardo DiCaprio- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver- Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix- Joker
BEST ACTRESS Renee Zellweger- Judy Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story Charlize Theron- Bombshell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Tom Hanks- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Al Pacino- The Irishman Joe Pesci- The Irishman Brad Pitt- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Laura Dern- Marriage Story Margot Robbie- Bombshell
Who’s getting snubbed at the Oscars?
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 7, 2020 10:32:30 GMT
Not sure I can say definitively but these wouldn't shock me much :
DiCaprio possibly because the category is so deep but his movie is a monster.
Theron and Hanks maybe because I don't think their movies are that strong.
Pacino because he always gets snubbed in a general sense with awards throughout his career - he's won a lot, gets nodded a lot but he gets snubbed a lot too, and they don't "owe" Irishman 2 BSA nominations
I think it's someone in Supporting actor most likely, I can see Hopkins and Song Kang-ho getting two spots and reconfiguring the field.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 7, 2020 11:29:08 GMT
Who’s getting snubbed at the Oscars? I think they all make it to the Oscars. I guess Hanks could be vulnerable because he's Hanks and hasn't been nominated for awhile, but I think he's safely in fourth. He should be okay especially as he got BAFTA despite Mr. Rogers not being that well known across the pond. Best Actor is still pretty competitive and could have some surprises, but DiCaprio is well respected and is playing an actor in the Best Picture frontrunner, so I think he's okay now that he made BAFTA. Finally, I don't see any of the actresses missing in either leading or supporting with how weak both categories are.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 7, 2020 12:51:56 GMT
All of them will be in. The most vulnerable looks to be Hanks but I guess he won't be snubbed this time.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 7, 2020 14:21:47 GMT
Hanks isn’t vulnerable. I surprisingly thing they all will get in but I could see Pacino or DiCaprio missing in an upset.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 7, 2020 14:49:36 GMT
Hanks isn’t vulnerable. I surprisingly thing they all will get in but I could see Pacino or DiCaprio missing in an upset. I could argue for Al missing. Not Leo.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2020 14:51:16 GMT
I don't see any of these missing, honestly.
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Post by iheartamyadams on Jan 7, 2020 16:51:29 GMT
I think they all make it. I guess you could make an argument for Robbie vote splitting now that she has industry support for Hollywood as well and it’s going to be her much stronger film, but I think that category is far too weak for a surprise on that level.
Hanks on grounds of having a weak film and Song looming large, but I think the BAFTA nom in itself is pretty huge considering the nature of that film and how Rogers is definitely a very American thing. Also, just got confirmation that no actor has ever missed twice with GG, SAG and BAFTA.
I don’t see any reason to doubt the rest.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 7, 2020 17:18:21 GMT
I think they all make it. I guess you could make an argument for Robbie vote splitting now that she has industry support for Hollywood as well and it’s going to be her much stronger film, but I think that category is far too weak for a surprise on that level. Hanks on grounds of having a weak film and Song looming large, but I think the BAFTA nom in itself is pretty huge considering the nature of that film and how Rogers is definitely a very American thing. Also, just got confirmation that no actor has ever missed twice with GG, SAG and BAFTA. I don’t see any reason to doubt the rest. To be fair, that's hardly statistically significant when few actors missed with GG+SAG+BAFTA and then went on to get those 3 nominations again for another performance. To answer the OP, I guess I can still imagine Hanks, Egerton, and DiCaprio missing, but they're all looking pretty good right about now.
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Post by sirjeremy on Jan 7, 2020 17:19:49 GMT
I agree they'll all be in. I think the snubs will be Banderas, De Niro, Erivia, Hopkins, Sandler and Pryce.
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 17:43:01 GMT
There's always one snub, right?
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 7, 2020 17:44:58 GMT
To answer the OP, I guess I can still imagine Hanks, Egerton, and DiCaprio missing, but they're all looking pretty good right about now. Egerton didn't make all four...
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 7, 2020 17:45:55 GMT
Can we stop calling the BFCA major? They are a joke.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 7, 2020 17:52:07 GMT
Erivo, Nyong'o in best actress, De Niro in BA and Philips in BD will be snubbed. Hopkins might miss the BSA five. Also Egerton might be snubbed, in favor of Banderas.
Of course none of them has scored 4 out of 4.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 7, 2020 17:53:47 GMT
Egerton didn't make all four... Four? There are only 3 major precursors
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 7, 2020 17:54:46 GMT
BEST ACTOR Leonardo DiCaprio- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Adam Driver- Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix- Joker BEST ACTRESS Renee Zellweger- Judy Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story Charlize Theron- Bombshell BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Tom Hanks- A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Al Pacino- The Irishman Joe Pesci- The Irishman Brad Pitt- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Laura Dern- Marriage Story Margot Robbie- Bombshell Who’s getting snubbed at the Oscars? None of the above - they all made SAG and BAFTA - which have actual Oscar voters.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 7, 2020 17:58:46 GMT
Egerton didn't make all four... Four? There are only 3 major precursors The OP said 4... Don't know which one is the fourth... Critics choice?
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 18:01:50 GMT
The problem with this thread is where is the stat? Anyone have last year data for all 4?
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Post by quetee on Jan 7, 2020 18:21:33 GMT
last year ================ 1. Christian Bale (Vice) for best actor
2. Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) for best actor
3. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) for best actor
4. Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) for best actor
7. Glenn Close (The Wife) for best actress
8. Olivia Colman (The Favourite) for best actress
9. Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) for best actress
10. Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) for best actress
11. Mahershala Ali (Green Book) for best supporting actor
12. Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) for best supporting actor
13. Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) for best supporting actor
14. Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) for best supporting actor
15. Amy Adams (Vice) for best supporting actress
16. Emma Stone (The Favourite) for best supporting actress
17. Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) for best supporting actress
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Post by iheartamyadams on Jan 7, 2020 19:03:27 GMT
I think they all make it. I guess you could make an argument for Robbie vote splitting now that she has industry support for Hollywood as well and it’s going to be her much stronger film, but I think that category is far too weak for a surprise on that level. Hanks on grounds of having a weak film and Song looming large, but I think the BAFTA nom in itself is pretty huge considering the nature of that film and how Rogers is definitely a very American thing. Also, just got confirmation that no actor has ever missed twice with GG, SAG and BAFTA. I don’t see any reason to doubt the rest. To be fair, that's hardly statistically significant when few actors missed with GG+SAG+BAFTA and then went on to get those 3 nominations again for another performance. To answer the OP, I guess I can still imagine Hanks, Egerton, and DiCaprio missing, but they're all looking pretty good right about now. That’s true. I didn’t realize that Hanks is only the second actor among the group to be in serious contention for a follow up nom. I guess he’s still vulnerable, but I think (and hope) his Globes speech will push him in.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 7, 2020 21:14:36 GMT
I'm predicting a Hanks snub... I mean it's never failed me before.
Plus Song and Dafoe are potential passion picks.
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Post by MsMovieStar on Jan 7, 2020 21:20:29 GMT
Oh honey, let's focus on what's actually important here:
Me. I think I was snubbed.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 9, 2020 7:09:10 GMT
Adam Driver and Al Pacino
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Jan 9, 2020 7:17:45 GMT
Adam Driver and Al Pacino
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 9, 2020 8:36:41 GMT
Adam Driver and Al Pacino Driver snubbed??
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