The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 6, 2020 5:41:45 GMT
No DGA winner has been snubbed in the last two decades by ACE.
>but dude it's a one long take film
Birdman and The Revenant were nominated yet.
>but it's a late bloomer!
Screeners were sent.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 5:47:35 GMT
>but trivial stats like this get broken every year.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 6, 2020 5:58:18 GMT
>but trivial stats like this get broken every year. Examples? |
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Post by stephen on Jan 6, 2020 6:04:19 GMT
>but trivial stats like this get broken every year. Examples? 2018: No foreign-language film has ever won Best Director. 2017: No sci-fi/dark fantasy romance movie has ever won Best Picture. 2016: No film with a primarily black cast has ever won Best Picture. 2015: No film has won Best Picture and only one other award since the 1930s. 2014: No film has won Best Picture without an Editing nomination since 1980. Stats are helpful to chart trends, but they break all the time. And 1917, despite sending screeners, is an extremely late-breaker which is about to have its wide release come off the heels of its Globe wins. That's very good press. The industry is already gravitating towards it, as it is a heavy favorite to win Cinematography (which has gone hand-in-hand with Best Director of late) and possibly Score ( Joker being its main rival), as well as at least one sound prize (which favors war movies above any other genre). Makeup is also a contender and even Visual Effects isn't off the table. There is a very good chance 1917 could follow the path of something like Million Dollar Baby and utterly wreck the race at the last second. BAFTA will probably favor it over the Tarantino and the Scorsese, so that gives it a massive leg-up, and 1917 is exactly what would appeal to DGA. Its biggest hindrance was getting enough people to see it in time in such a compressed race. |
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 6, 2020 6:14:11 GMT
2018: No foreign-language film has ever won Best Director. 2017: No sci-fi/dark fantasy romance movie has ever won Best Picture. 2016: No film with a primarily black cast has ever won Best Picture. 2015: No film has won Best Picture and only one other award since the 1930s. 2014: No film has won Best Picture without an Editing nomination since 1980. Stats are helpful to chart trends, but they break all the time. And 1917, despite sending screeners, is an extremely late-breaker which is about to have its wide release come off the heels of its Globe wins. That's very good press. The industry is already gravitating towards it, as it is a heavy favorite to win Cinematography (which has gone hand-in-hand with Best Director of late) and possibly Score ( Joker being its main rival), as well as at least one sound prize (which favors war movies above any other genre). Makeup is also a contender and even Visual Effects isn't off the table. There is a very good chance 1917 could follow the path of something like Million Dollar Baby and utterly wreck the race at the last second. BAFTA will probably favor it over the Tarantino and the Scorsese, so that gives it a massive leg-up, and 1917 is exactly what would appeal to DGA. Its biggest hindrance was getting enough people to see it in time in such a compressed race. Meh those were mostly genre stats which I don't take seriously. I focus a lot more on the mathematical side and the most plausible comparison for it is Avatar. It will peak in the right time however since it just came out and if it hits the right places (DGA, BAFTAs, Oscar noms) it does stands a good chance. We shall see however |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 6:16:34 GMT
Stephen has given some, but that's not really the point. If I looked hard enough, I'm sure I could come up with some weird trivia to show how OUaTiH will never win Best Picture. Something about bad audience scores or not enough Best Picture wins from pre-Globes awards or whatever. These are just trivia. Missing an Editing nomination, logically speaking, isn't a big negative for a movie like 1917. What is a bigger negative, even if the stats don't say so, is missing WGA or SAG and the fact that it probably won't get any acting nominations. Those demonstrate bigger weaknesses than a one-take movie missing the Editing Guild nomination. To me, anyway. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 6, 2020 6:36:58 GMT
The Revenant had cuts and Birdman was a comedy and therefore had much weaker competition at ACE...
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 6, 2020 6:50:34 GMT
Stephen has given some, but that's not really the point. If I looked hard enough, I'm sure I could come up with some weird trivia to show how OUaTiH will never win Best Picture. Something about bad audience scores or not enough Best Picture wins from pre-Globes awards or whatever. These are just trivia. Missing an Editing nomination, logically speaking, isn't a big negative for a movie like 1917. What is a bigger negative, even if the stats don't say so, is missing WGA or SAG and the fact that it probably won't get any acting nominations. Those demonstrate bigger weaknesses than a one-take movie missing the Editing Guild nomination. To me, anyway. I think Mendes can win DGA without those nominations, but yeah for Best Picture, if it doesn’t get an acting or screenplay nomination, I don’t know if it could overcome that. |
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 6, 2020 6:53:39 GMT
I think Mendes can win DGA without those nominations, but yeah for Best Picture, if it doesn’t get an acting or screenplay nomination, I don’t know if it could overcome that. Yeah, I think Mendes is probably the frontrunner for Director now. Not a strong one, because there are still at least 3 contenders, but he has the most going for him. For Picture, I think OUaTiH is the clear (though not yet strong) frontrunner. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 6, 2020 12:40:48 GMT
>but trivial stats like this get broken every year. 100% correct. It is important to look at the overall picture. Mendes winning the Globe here puts him at a high chance of winning at the DGAs.
Why don't we highlight these stats?
The DGA and Globe winner have matched up for the last four years
In the last twenty years, they have lined up thirteen times. The misses were Gosford Park, Gangs of New York, Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Avatar, The Social Network, Hugo and Boyhood.
In the last thirty years, they have lined up 20/30 times. Between 1989 and 1998, the Globes and DGAs failed to match up The People vs. Larry Flint, Braveheart (yes, it went to Apollo 13), and JFK.
Also, the OP pointed out Birdman, but Birdman was eligible at the EDDIE in the Comedy/Musical category, which tends to be the "weaker" of the bunch. Just look at their line-up:
DRAMA Sniper, Gone Girl, Imitation, Nightcrawler, and Whiplash
COMEDY Budapest, Birdman, Galaxy, Into the Woods and Inherent Vice.
Last time a checked 1917 is listed as a Drama, which is the more competitive one.
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