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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 5, 2020 3:55:43 GMT
I’m predicting it to win best picture drama at the globes. If it manages PGA on top of that and Phillips gets in for Director (which I think he has a fair shot) it could all of a sudden find it’s path to front runner.
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Post by quetee on Jan 5, 2020 3:57:33 GMT
Of course. Watch, it will hit all the guilds.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 5, 2020 3:58:12 GMT
Also, I don’t know a single person that didn’t love Joker. I don’t think there is any hate for it outside of a small twitter bubble. And I certainly don’t think it’s divisive in the industry,
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Post by quetee on Jan 5, 2020 4:15:12 GMT
Also, I don’t know a single person that didn’t love Joker. I don’t think there is any hate for it outside of a small twitter bubble. And I certainly don’t think it’s divisive in the industry, It is doing poorly with these critic awards cause nobody wants to look as if they endorse that type of movie. The Globes don't give an F. Besides, the movie did well OS. The movie made a billion dollars off of a 50 mil dollar budget. There is no way it is missing out on a PGA nod. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 5, 2020 4:17:00 GMT
Also, I don’t know a single person that didn’t love Joker. I don’t think there is any hate for it outside of a small twitter bubble. And I certainly don’t think it’s divisive in the industry, It is doing poorly with these critic awards cause nobody wants to look as if they endorse that type of movie. The Globes don't give an F. Besides, the movie did well OS. The movie made a billion dollars off of a 50 mil dollar budget. There is no way it is missing out on a PGA nod. Oh, it’s definitely not missing out on a PGA nom, I actually think it will win. |
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Post by quetee on Jan 5, 2020 4:33:46 GMT
It is doing poorly with these critic awards cause nobody wants to look as if they endorse that type of movie. The Globes don't give an F. Besides, the movie did well OS. The movie made a billion dollars off of a 50 mil dollar budget. There is no way it is missing out on a PGA nod. Oh, it’s definitely not missing out on a PGA nom, I actually think it will win. I've already posted my opinion on this and I'm sure I got the old side-eye. I think the race is between Joker and Once. |
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Post by futuretrunks on Jan 5, 2020 4:46:12 GMT
It has zero chance of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. I don't think either movie is good, but Parasite alone would get probably 3 times as many #1 votes as Joker, then comes OUATIH, Marriage Story, and The Irishman. Keep in mind I don't like any of these movies. Joker is toast.
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Post by DeepArcher on Jan 5, 2020 4:50:23 GMT
Sadly, yes, I think it has a much better shot than most seem to realize. I think it wins the Globe and PGA (unless OUATIH takes it), people in the industry love it and I think it’ll benefit from the preferential ballot more than a lot of its competition. At this rate not much would surprise me, honestly ... this definitely would not.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 5, 2020 4:52:36 GMT
I've been thinking this for a while. I could see one of the bigger name directors taking BD and Joker winning BP and actor.
I would still tentatively call The Irishman the favorite, but Joker would probably be my second choice. OUATIH is actually far more a genre film than Joker is, which is really more a character study than anything else, I just can't see something like that winning BP. If Basterds couldn't win in a pretty weak field than OUATIH isn't winning. I could see Tarantino taking director as a lifetime achievement type thing, though. I still don't think the Oscars are ready to give BP to a foreign film that that eliminates Parasite, and Marriage Story just reeks of a movie that wins an acting award or two but nothing for directing/writing or the movie itself.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 5, 2020 6:20:37 GMT
has about as much chance as BH did last year.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2020 8:24:05 GMT
Yes. It won the only real precursor of Best Picture. The Phoenix Film Critics Society.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 5, 2020 14:31:17 GMT
Not a single chance of wining BP imo.
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2020 15:40:32 GMT
Not a single chance of wining BP imo. Technically most contenders have a chance of winning BP. I wouldn't cut down its chances |
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2020 15:42:39 GMT
I actually think it's got a very strong shot of taking PGA, which is the best industry bellwether for the prize there is.
I don't think it will do well on a preferential ballot, but the industry seems to be responding very favorably to it. If it wins the Globe tonight (which it very well could), it's a definite threat.
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Post by TerryMontana on Jan 5, 2020 15:45:02 GMT
Not a single chance of wining BP imo. Technically most contenders have a chance of winning BP. I wouldn't cut down its chances Mathematically, yes. But I don't believe it's a real threat for the BP Oscar. At all. |
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2020 15:49:30 GMT
Technically most contenders have a chance of winning BP. I wouldn't cut down its chances Mathematically, yes. But I don't believe it's a real threat for the BP Oscar. At all. It is. It's a plausible threat for the PGA and if it gets Directing and Screenplay nods it can definitely beat any of the top 3 |
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2020 16:02:19 GMT
I actually think it's got a very strong shot of taking PGA, which is the best industry bellwether for the prize there is. I don't think it will do well on a preferential ballot, but the industry seems to be responding very favorably to it. If it wins the Globe tonight (which it very well could), it's a definite threat. Yup. Very strong chance those who disliked it or didn't see it in fear will rank it below |
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Post by jakob on Jan 5, 2020 16:25:34 GMT
I imagine it’ll follow the same path of Bohemian Rhapsody.
Wins the Globe for Drama and Actor. Makes it into Best Picture at the Oscars, but misses Director. Doesn’t win the Oscar but maybe takes home a couple trophies including absolutely taking Best Actor. Phoenix is probably definitely winning SAG too given how much support he has from literally so many actors in the industry.
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 5, 2020 17:16:15 GMT
Not a single chance of wining BP imo. Technically most contenders have a chance of winning BP. I wouldn't cut down its chances Technically, every nominee - has a chance of winning - including Marriage Story, which you have cut down its chances. |
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2020 18:10:44 GMT
Technically most contenders have a chance of winning BP. I wouldn't cut down its chances Technically, every nominee - has a chance of winning - including Marriage Story, which you have cut down its chances. Yes. It's different having a chance at winning than actually winning. Marriage Story isn't winning BP |
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 5, 2020 18:24:21 GMT
Technically, every nominee - has a chance of winning - including Marriage Story, which you have cut down its chances. Yes. It's different having a chance at winning than actually winning. Marriage Story isn't winning BP No one can claim what is winning or not winning - at this point. The Oscar nods aren't even out, neither are the PGA's, DGA's, WGA's.
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2020 20:47:16 GMT
Yes. It's different having a chance at winning than actually winning. Marriage Story isn't winning BP No one can claim what is winning or not winning - at this point. The Oscar nods aren't even out, neither are the PGA's, DGA's, WGA's.
That's silly absolutist. You can usually see the different trends in the race. People argued how ASIB was losing steam due to the popularity of two other movies this early in the race. |
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Post by countjohn on Jan 5, 2020 23:44:23 GMT
Forgot to mention 1917 in my initial post because I haven't seen it yet. That is a contender in addition to The Irishman. That would push Joker back to the third spot as a dark horse but I wouldn't rule it out.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 9, 2020 7:14:32 GMT
Now that it lost the Globe, I'm warier
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 9, 2020 14:47:54 GMT
Yeah, I don’t think it’s a real consented anymore. At best it’s 4th/5th.
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