|
Post by quetee on Jan 4, 2020 19:39:40 GMT
It's goodwill from Big Little Lies. This is what happens when everyone hops on the bandwagon nobody sees the actual performs but just wants to blindly vote for that person. This is what is going on here. I'd say it's less about Big Little Lies and more about how absolutely well-respected Dern is in the industry, and how much work she's been doing on behalf of the Academy lately. Glenn is well respected also but that didn't help her. As for her work on behalf of the Academy, that is a possible reason but it is not a good one. The problem with the awards and it is with anything that is peer-based is that objectivity never prevails. People vote for or vote against people for some of the dumbest reasons.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 4, 2020 19:41:53 GMT
Surprised that not only did Pitt win but he won handily. I figure it would be close between him and Pesci.
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 4, 2020 19:42:47 GMT
You have to be a moron to believe that, considering two decades spanning of awards season awareness, critics actually vote for the Oscars.
I know this person is usually delusional but you wouldn't think what lengths they go to promote their self deluded predictions
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:44:00 GMT
I'd say it's less about Big Little Lies and more about how absolutely well-respected Dern is in the industry, and how much work she's been doing on behalf of the Academy lately. Glenn is well respected also but that didn't help her. As for her work on behalf of the Academy, that is a possible reason but it is not a good one. The problem with the awards and it is with anything that is peer-based is that objectivity never prevails. People vote for or vote against people for some of the dumbest reasons. Close is well respected, but I argued that she wasn't very well loved. The Academy had largely ignored her for thirty years. And she was in a film no one gave a shit about aside from the fact that it might finally net her an Oscar because she had lost six times. People wanted to badly to believe it was her time that they ignored the very real red flags of the race, and completely ignored that for every advantage she had, Olivia Colman had more. Dern's profile the last decade has shot up substantially. She's gone from being a niche actress to pretty damn ubiquitous in film and TV. She's everywhere these days. And she is Hollywood royalty. That cannot be overlooked. It helps she's in a Best Picture contender (which Close wasn't), so they can feel okay rewarding her for a quality project rather than just giving her an Oscar because it's expected. They don't really do "overdue" Oscars anymore these days.
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 4, 2020 19:45:34 GMT
1. No overlap between NYFCC/LAFCA voters and Academy voters. 2. NYFCC/LAFCA don't get the same visibility/publicity as any of Globes/SAG/BAFTA. I think they have a certain amount of influence, but I think being nominated at any of the precursors beats winning of any of these critics awards as far as the Oscar race is concerned. For instance, if Banderas could have either won today or gotten a BAFTA nomination, which do you think would have improved his Oscar chances more? 1. No, but I think Oscar voters are more apt to pay attention to these groups than any of the other regional critics' groups simply because most of them don't live in these other areas - hence their influence. 2. Hm... No, not to the general public, as they aren't televised and there's no red carpet, but Oscar voters are no doubt invited to these critics' events - totally schmoozy, totally starry. Critics don't have influence whatsoever. They're the butt of jokes. Stars only attend to pick up awards and for the booze. The same reason why they attend ceremonies like the Golden Globes. You can name performances that won critics awards and were nominated yet the reasons why they were nominated is contributed to awareness. Academy members don't give a shit about what Erick Kohn thought of their movie
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 4, 2020 19:47:01 GMT
Glenn is well respected also but that didn't help her. As for her work on behalf of the Academy, that is a possible reason but it is not a good one. The problem with the awards and it is with anything that is peer-based is that objectivity never prevails. People vote for or vote against people for some of the dumbest reasons. Close is well respected, but I argued that she wasn't very well loved. The Academy had largely ignored her for thirty years. And she was in a film no one gave a shit about aside from the fact that it might finally net her an Oscar because she had lost six times. People wanted to badly to believe it was her time that they ignored the very real red flags of the race, and completely ignored that for every advantage she had, Olivia Colman had more. Dern's profile the last decade has shot up substantially. She's gone from being a niche actress to pretty damn ubiquitous in film and TV. She's everywhere these days. And she is Hollywood royalty. That cannot be overlooked. It helps she's in a Best Picture contender (which Close wasn't), so they can feel okay rewarding her for a quality project rather than just giving her an Oscar because it's expected. They don't really do "overdue" Oscars anymore these days. Well, that's true.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:48:00 GMT
1. No, but I think Oscar voters are more apt to pay attention to these groups than any of the other regional critics' groups simply because most of them don't live in these other areas - hence their influence. 2. Hm... No, not to the general public, as they aren't televised and there's no red carpet, but Oscar voters are no doubt invited to these critics' events - totally schmoozy, totally starry. Critics don't have influence whatsoever. They're the butt of jokes. Stars only attend to pick up awards and for the booze. The same reason why they attend ceremonies like the Golden Globes. You can name performances that won critics awards and were nominated yet the reasons why they were nominated is contributed to awareness. Academy members don't give a shit about what Erick Kohn thought of their movie You're mostly right, although when it comes to building a narrative, studios can definitely capitalize on what critics are saying and build on that. For instance, people were putting Dern down as a potential winner when the movie was announced, because of factors we've discussed above. People starting chattering about who the likeliest winner was, she became the early favorite. Thinkpieces started coming out. The more people talked about it, the more it became a thing. And when critics saw it and liked her work in it, they felt compelled to vote for her because to be part of her anointment as a winner would make them look better as Oscar predictors. Studios can look at the way the wind is blowing and campaign accordingly.
|
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,937
|
Post by Good God on Jan 4, 2020 19:48:03 GMT
1. No, but I think Oscar voters are more apt to pay attention to these groups than any of the other regional critics' groups simply because most of them don't live in these other areas - hence their influence. 2. Hm... No, not to the general public, as they aren't televised and there's no red carpet, but Oscar voters are no doubt invited to these critics' events - totally schmoozy, totally starry. 1. Never really argued against these groups being more influential than regional groups. That's pretty obvious. All I said was that the televised precursors are more influential. 2. Oscar voters are also invited to Globes/SAG/BAFTA, and in larger numbers. Not to mention that a lot more Oscar voters watch those 3 shows from their homes, because they're televised.
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 4, 2020 19:50:21 GMT
Critics don't have influence whatsoever. They're the butt of jokes. Stars only attend to pick up awards and for the booze. The same reason why they attend ceremonies like the Golden Globes. You can name performances that won critics awards and were nominated yet the reasons why they were nominated is contributed to awareness. Academy members don't give a shit about what Erick Kohn thought of their movie You're mostly right, although when it comes to building a narrative, studios can definitely capitalize on what critics are saying and build on that. For instance, people were putting Dern down as a potential winner when the movie was announced, because of factors we've discussed above. People starting chattering about who the likeliest winner was, she became the early favorite. Thinkpieces started coming out. The more people talked about it, the more it became a thing. And when critics saw it and liked her work in it, they felt compelled to vote for her because to be part of her anointment as a winner would make them look better as Oscar predictors. Studios can look at the way the wind is blowing and campaign accordingly. Sure. Let's not forget how WB turned Mad Max its number one horse for example, over the likes of awards catastrophe Black Mass. Although, you have to strongly consider industry reception which may sometimes, just sometimes, mirror what the critics are rewarding.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 4, 2020 19:50:50 GMT
Critics don't have influence whatsoever. They're the butt of jokes. Stars only attend to pick up awards and for the booze. The same reason why they attend ceremonies like the Golden Globes. You can name performances that won critics awards and were nominated yet the reasons why they were nominated is contributed to awareness. Academy members don't give a shit about what Erick Kohn thought of their movie You're mostly right, although when it comes to building a narrative, studios can definitely capitalize on what critics are saying and build on that. For instance, people were putting Dern down as a potential winner when the movie was announced, because of factors we've discussed above. People starting chattering about who the likeliest winner was, she became the early favorite. Thinkpieces started coming out. The more people talked about it, the more it became a thing. And when critics saw it and liked her work in it, they felt compelled to vote for her because to be part of her anointment as a winner would make them look better as Oscar predictors. Studios can look at the way the wind is blowing and campaign accordingly. Any award that gets a film or performance real publicity is helpful to their chances. Maybe not a lot and it varies by award but it’s never a bad thing to get your name mentioned in Variety or whatever while academy members are voting. Works as a free FYC ad.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:51:33 GMT
You're mostly right, although when it comes to building a narrative, studios can definitely capitalize on what critics are saying and build on that. For instance, people were putting Dern down as a potential winner when the movie was announced, because of factors we've discussed above. People starting chattering about who the likeliest winner was, she became the early favorite. Thinkpieces started coming out. The more people talked about it, the more it became a thing. And when critics saw it and liked her work in it, they felt compelled to vote for her because to be part of her anointment as a winner would make them look better as Oscar predictors. Studios can look at the way the wind is blowing and campaign accordingly. Sure. Let's not forget how WB turned Mad Max its number one horse for example, over the likes of awards catastrophe Black Mass. Although, you have to strongly consider industry reception which may sometimes, just sometimes, mirror what the critics are rewarding. True. Sometimes, it's just that they all happen to like the movie/performance they're rewarding. All it takes is a plurality of votes to win.
|
|
Javi
Badass
Posts: 1,532
Likes: 1,622
|
Post by Javi on Jan 4, 2020 19:52:19 GMT
Banderas pretty much a lock now. He's not going to miss with NY+LA+NSFC wins plus BFCA+GG and an impending BAFTA nom... only one open spot left in Lead Actor imo. Sally Hawkins and Ethan Hawke were in similar positions in early January 2009 and twelve months ago, respectively, and look what happened to them. I don't think Banderas is close to being a lock, especially as he missed a SAG nod, and his film may only get one other nomination, probably in screenplay (another similarity with Hawkins and Hawke). Sally Hawkins, yes, Ethan Hawke, no: he was a different case entirely (he had little to no campaign behind him and no televised noms). And Hawkins was a Hollywood unknown at the time... Banderas is loved in Hollywood. That's more important than any number of critics wins.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:55:18 GMT
Can we say Nyong'o safe or not? She's not even take the third place. Nyong'o is not and never has been safe. She could get in (and if she places at BAFTA, I expect her to take the fifth slot), but she could easily get frosted out.
|
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,937
|
Post by Good God on Jan 4, 2020 19:57:03 GMT
With Ronan making strides with her AACTA win, perhaps only Johansson and Zellweger are safe. Maybe Theron too. The last two spots are up for grabs among 4 actresses (particularly if Awkwafina wins the Comedy Globe).
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 4, 2020 19:58:49 GMT
Can we say Nyong'o safe or not? She's not even take the third place. Nope. Although the Academy does like lead actresses in genre roles.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 20:00:15 GMT
With Ronan making strides with her AACTA win, perhaps only Johansson and Zellweger are safe. Maybe Theron too. The last two spots are up for grabs among 4 actresses (especially if Awkwafina wins the Comedy Globe). Theron still feels really shaky. For whatever reason, she's never been able to really gain a foothold with the Academy post- Monster. North Country is your prototypical afterglow nod, but no Oscar love for Young Adult? Mad Max: Fury Road? Even Tully could've been a contender. Yes, all of those had detractors, but you'd think a consistently working Oscar-winning actress in that demographic would do better with nominations than she has. And she's playing an extremely controversial real-life living figure. The only thing that helps her is the SAG Ensemble nod and the eventual Makeup win. I just can't see her getting a whole lot of passionate support. But who knows at this point?
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 4, 2020 20:00:22 GMT
Surprised that this is the first time I’ve seen Little Women’s cinematography mentioned all year. It’s a nice looking film.
|
|
Good God
Badass
Posts: 1,633
Likes: 1,937
|
Post by Good God on Jan 4, 2020 20:03:17 GMT
Theron still feels really shaky. For whatever reason, she's never been able to really gain a foothold with the Academy post- Monster. North Country is your prototypical afterglow nod, but no Oscar love for Young Adult? Mad Max: Fury Road? Even Tully could've been a contender. Yes, all of those had detractors, but you'd think a consistently working Oscar-winning actress in that demographic would do better with nominations than she has. And she's playing an extremely controversial real-life living figure. The only thing that helps her is the SAG Ensemble nod and the eventual Makeup win. I just can't see her getting a whole lot of passionate support. But who knows at this point? I don't know, Bombshell did extremely well at SAG, which points to the movie landing really well with actors, and it's only the acting branch that votes for nominations. If Kelly being a controversial figure didn't hurt her at SAG (which tends to be more "woke"), it shouldn't affect her at the Oscars. I wouldn't call her a lock, but she seems fairly safe to me.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 4, 2020 20:03:36 GMT
Can we say Nyong'o safe or not? She's not even take the third place. If she gets in then I'm going to say.. Someone other than the Oscar voter voted People had one min left to vote and could not think of anybody else. Seriously though, this type of performance doesn't score a nod. I like Lupita but her performance was no better than Toni's.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 20:08:16 GMT
Theron still feels really shaky. For whatever reason, she's never been able to really gain a foothold with the Academy post- Monster. North Country is your prototypical afterglow nod, but no Oscar love for Young Adult? Mad Max: Fury Road? Even Tully could've been a contender. Yes, all of those had detractors, but you'd think a consistently working Oscar-winning actress in that demographic would do better with nominations than she has. And she's playing an extremely controversial real-life living figure. The only thing that helps her is the SAG Ensemble nod and the eventual Makeup win. I just can't see her getting a whole lot of passionate support. But who knows at this point? I don't know, Bombshell did extremely well at SAG, which points to the movie landing really well with actors, and it's only the acting branch that votes for nominations. If Kelly being a controversial figure didn't hurt her at SAG (which tends to be more "woke"), it shouldn't affect her at the Oscars. I wouldn't call her a lock, but she seems fairly safe to me. That's very true. But Little Women didn't seem to get enough people seeing it in time for voting, and I think of all of the SAG Ensemble nominees, Bombshell is far and away the most vulnerable. Ronan is likely to get a late surge, and if she does it at a "secure" person's expense, it would be for Theron over the others. But yeah, I'm expecting a shock snub of an expected secure nominee this year. But will it be here or Best Actor?
|
|
avnermoriarti
Badass
Friends say I’ve changed. They’re right.
Posts: 2,389
Likes: 1,274
|
Post by avnermoriarti on Jan 4, 2020 20:15:28 GMT
It's so annoying when they pair two or three different films, it's like one wasn't enought to actually give the award to that person.
So far, I really like the best actress finalists, althougt I'd prefer Zhao or Pugh over Place just for her first cringe-worthy scene...
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 4, 2020 20:18:14 GMT
Parasite won screenplay. Probably taking picture next.
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 4, 2020 20:18:21 GMT
Parasite won Screenplay. I'm telling you man, it's probably going to win the rest of the Screenplay awards
|
|
The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
Likes: 552
|
Post by The-Havok on Jan 4, 2020 20:20:18 GMT
Marriage Story is bombing LOL. Really glad everyone is responding to Baumbach lightweight copycat as supposed to.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jan 4, 2020 20:32:51 GMT
Marriage Story is bombing LOL. Really glad everyone is responding to Baumbach lightweight copycat as supposed to. It also bombed Netflix, per the viewing numbers.
|
|