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Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 18:40:33 GMT
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Post by Pavan on Jan 4, 2020 18:54:45 GMT
It's really bugs me that Dern is winning almost every award there is. I've seen two movies in the last two days with two really good supporting performances (Robbie and Bates) in them that puts Dern's performance to shame. Then there is Shuzen Zhao and J Lopez who are also better than Dern.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 4, 2020 18:59:48 GMT
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Post by quetee on Jan 4, 2020 19:00:18 GMT
It's really bugs me that Dern is winning almost every award there is. I've seen two movies in the last two days with two really good supporting performances (Robbie and Bates) in them that puts Dern's performance to shame. Then there is Shuzen Zhao and J Lopez who are also better than Dern. It's goodwill from Big Little Lies. This is what happens when everyone hops on the bandwagon nobody sees the actual performs but just wants to blindly vote for that person. This is what is going on here.
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Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:02:04 GMT
It's really bugs me that Dern is winning almost every award there is. I've seen two movies in the last two days with two really good supporting performances (Robbie and Bates) in them that puts Dern's performance to shame. Then there is Shuzen Zhao and J Lopez who are also better than Dern. It's goodwill from Big Little Lies. This is what happens when everyone hops on the bandwagon nobody sees the actual performs but just wants to blindly vote for that person. This is what is going on here. I'd say it's less about Big Little Lies and more about how absolutely well-respected Dern is in the industry, and how much work she's been doing on behalf of the Academy lately.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Jan 4, 2020 19:06:14 GMT
Banderas pretty much a lock now. He's not going to miss with NY+LA+NSFC wins plus BFCA+GG and an impending BAFTA nom... only one open spot left in Lead Actor imo.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 4, 2020 19:07:39 GMT
Oscar Winner Laura Dern has a really nice ring to it and I don't begrudge her inevitable victory, I just wish it had been for something better like Wild. What's crazy to me is that she's only been nominated twice.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 4, 2020 19:09:15 GMT
-Banderas pretty much a lock now. He's not going to miss with NY+LA+NSFC wins plus BFCA+GG and an impending BAFTA nom... only one open spot left in Lead Actor imo. Phoenix, Drirver, DiCaprio and Banderas are locked. Rest of the guys are gonna fight for that fifth spot.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 4, 2020 19:11:29 GMT
It's goodwill from Big Little Lies. This is what happens when everyone hops on the bandwagon nobody sees the actual performs but just wants to blindly vote for that person. This is what is going on here. I'd say it's less about Big Little Lies and more about how absolutely well-respected Dern is in the industry, and how much work she's been doing on behalf of the Academy lately. Still doesn't explain the unanimous love from critics groups.
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Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:12:59 GMT
I'd say it's less about Big Little Lies and more about how absolutely well-respected Dern is in the industry, and how much work she's been doing on behalf of the Academy lately. Still doesn't explain the unanimous love from critics groups. 1. Critics like to rubberstamp eventual Oscar wins in order to cement themselves as worthwhile prognosticators. 2. They genuinely liked her performance.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Jan 4, 2020 19:14:59 GMT
I have to ask. As someone who liked Marriage Story, and loves Dern in general... what did she do? She’s good, but the hype escapes me.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 4, 2020 19:15:35 GMT
Still doesn't explain the unanimous love from critics groups. 1. Critics like to rubberstamp eventual Oscar wins in order to cement themselves as worthwhile prognosticators.
2. They genuinely liked her performance. I guess you are right.
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Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:20:31 GMT
I'd say it's less about Big Little Lies and more about how absolutely well-respected Dern is in the industry, and how much work she's been doing on behalf of the Academy lately. But it would be more honored if she wins for the better performance. She'd rather lose than put her name in one of the worst best supporting winners in history. The fact that you think she'd be one of the worst supporting winners in history is ridiculous.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 4, 2020 19:22:05 GMT
I'd say it's less about Big Little Lies and more about how absolutely well-respected Dern is in the industry, and how much work she's been doing on behalf of the Academy lately. But it would be more honored if she wins for the better performance. She'd rather lose than put her name in one of the worst best supporting winners in history. Wait... are you saying Laura Dern herself would rather lose and that she would believe this to be one of the worst wins in history?
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Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:24:26 GMT
The fact that you think she'd be one of the worst supporting winners in history is ridiculous. Not the worst, that's too much. I know she's a great actress, but that's a very forgettable performance. Yeah, but that can be applied to most winners in this category. Supporting Actress is a dumping ground of coattail wins, category frauds and overdue vets. At least Dern was fun and charming while she was on-screen, and wasn't ruinous like some winners in this category this decade.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 4, 2020 19:26:23 GMT
Driver and Phoenix are still the only locks. The problem for Banderas is that his movie is weaker than at least 5 of the contenders' and he's also missed SAG. I'd predict him for BAFTA, but that's far from a sure thing too. It's easy to get carried away by critics wins, but they don't mean as much as any of the precursors. If he hits BAFTA, though, he will be in a very good position.
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Post by stephen on Jan 4, 2020 19:29:35 GMT
Driver and Phoenix are still the only locks. The problem for Banderas is that his movie is weaker than at least 5 of the contenders' and he's also missed SAG. I'd predict him for BAFTA, but that's far from a sure thing too. It's easy to get carried away by critics wins, but they don't mean as much as any of the precursors. If he hits BAFTA, though, he will be in a very good position. Yeah, I think that if anything, it shows he has a great deal of passion behind him. But so does Sandler. Egerton's working the circuit like there's no tomorrow. De Niro and (to a lesser extent) Murphy are also in the mix as well. I would not be surprised if two (or more!) of these wind up sneaking in based purely on passion and wind up knocking DiCaprio out. Every year, we see someone assumed to be a safe bet miss out because someone scored those sweet #1 spots on a ballot at a crucial time.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 4, 2020 19:30:06 GMT
Wait... are you saying Laura Dern herself would rather lose and that she would believe this to be one of the worst wins in history? Not really the worst, but shame that she should win for the movie. Oscar doesn't come every time so, it's good for her to win than never. It’s not the “worst winner of all time” thing that is confusing me. It’s that you think SHE would think this. Or anything even remotely like that.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2020 19:30:24 GMT
Driver and Phoenix are still the only locks. The problem for Banderas is that his movie is weaker than at least 5 of the contenders' and he's also missed SAG. I'd predict him for BAFTA, but that's far from a sure thing too. It's easy to get carried away by critics wins, but they don't mean as much as any of the precursors. If he hits BAFTA, though, he will be in a very good position. Oh, I definitely think NYFCC and LAFCA do - the majority of Oscar voters live in these areas.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 4, 2020 19:31:21 GMT
Still doesn't explain the unanimous love from critics groups. 1. Critics like to rubberstamp eventual Oscar wins in order to cement themselves as worthwhile prognosticators. 2. They genuinely liked her performance. Well said on point 1. Don't wan't to hear critics whine in future about "make-up/career" Oscar wins when they are blatantly feeding the process themselves now. Yes Dern is a beloved, veteran actress in the industry and she may never get another shot as clear as this, so it's obvious why it's happening, but I think even people who would be happy for her to get a career Oscar are baffled by this sweep.
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Good God
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Post by Good God on Jan 4, 2020 19:34:17 GMT
Oh, I definitely think NYFCC and LAFCA do - the majority of Oscar voters live in these areas. 1. No overlap between NYFCC/LAFCA voters and Academy voters. 2. NYFCC/LAFCA don't get the same visibility/publicity as any of Globes/SAG/BAFTA. They have a certain amount of influence, but I think being nominated at any of the precursors beats winning of any of these critics awards as far as the Oscar race is concerned. For instance, if Banderas could have either won NYFCC or gotten a SAG nomination, which do you think would have improved his Oscar chances more?
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Post by sirjeremy on Jan 4, 2020 19:35:33 GMT
Banderas pretty much a lock now. He's not going to miss with NY+LA+NSFC wins plus BFCA+GG and an impending BAFTA nom... only one open spot left in Lead Actor imo. Sally Hawkins and Ethan Hawke were in similar positions in early January 2009 and twelve months ago, respectively, and look what happened to them. I don't think Banderas is close to being a lock, especially as he missed a SAG nod, and his film may only get one other nomination, probably in screenplay (another similarity with Hawkins and Hawke).
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Post by quetee on Jan 4, 2020 19:37:05 GMT
Driver and Phoenix are still the only locks. The problem for Banderas is that his movie is weaker than at least 5 of the contenders' and he's also missed SAG. I'd predict him for BAFTA, but that's far from a sure thing too. It's easy to get carried away by critics wins, but they don't mean as much as any of the precursors. If he hits BAFTA, though, he will be in a very good position. Yeah, I think that if anything, it shows he has a great deal of passion behind him. But so does Sandler. Egerton's working the circuit like there's no tomorrow. De Niro and (to a lesser extent) Murphy are also in the mix as well. I would not be surprised if two (or more!) of these wind up sneaking in based purely on passion and wind up knocking DiCaprio out. Every year, we see someone assumed to be a safe bet miss out because someone scored those sweet #1 spots on a ballot at a crucial time. I agree, Leo is not safe.
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Post by pupdurcs on Jan 4, 2020 19:38:49 GMT
Banderas pretty much a lock now. He's not going to miss with NY+LA+NSFC wins plus BFCA+GG and an impending BAFTA nom... only one open spot left in Lead Actor imo. Sally Hawkins and Ethan Hawke were in similar positions in early January 2009 and twelve months ago, respectively, and look what happened to them. I don't think Banderas is close to being a lock, especially as he missed a SAG nod, and his film may only get one other nomination, probably in screenplay (another similarity with Hawkins and Hawke). Agreed. The Hawke example in particular, recent as it is in the same category should give pause to declaring Banderas a lock. I always knew he would be in the mix for the big critics awards, but this is genuinely one of the most crowded fields in recent memory in this category.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2020 19:39:36 GMT
Oh, I definitely think NYFCC and LAFCA do - the majority of Oscar voters live in these areas. 1. No overlap between NYFCC/LAFCA voters and Academy voters. 2. NYFCC/LAFCA don't get the same visibility/publicity as any of Globes/SAG/BAFTA. I think they have a certain amount of influence, but I think being nominated at any of the precursors beats winning of any of these critics awards as far as the Oscar race is concerned. For instance, if Banderas could have either won today or gotten a BAFTA nomination, which do you think would have improved his Oscar chances more? 1. No, but I think Oscar voters are more apt to pay attention to these groups than any of the other regional critics' groups simply because most of them don't live in these other areas - hence their influence. 2. Hm... No, not to the general public, as they aren't televised and there's no red carpet, but Oscar voters are no doubt invited to these critics' events - totally schmoozy, totally starry.
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