If Parasite wins Original Screenplay, it's over for OUATIH

I can agree with that. I also think if it beats Marriage Story, then it's probably taking Picture, especially as I think Bong's taking Director.

Nope. The movie has been underperforming with guilds, actors don't give a shit about it. It also means Hollywood needs to nab Director to take the top prize

Ehh, I can actually see it winning International Film and Original Screenplay and OUATIH taking Picture and Director. I'm actually predicting this scenario for Oscars at the moment. I have the impression that some people might see OUATIH as a bit less of a writing and more of a directing achievement for QT.

Here's the thing, all the movies that were seen as more of a 'Directing' achievement this decade solely won for Best Director. We've had 5 BP/BD splits this year and literally all but two BP winners did not win any Oscar for Screenplay. Thus reinforcing the importance of a Screenplay win to win Best Picture.

All in case, OUATIH can pull off a Birdman but Parasite is a visible threat given its popularity and how universally admired it is over something like Hollywood, which may not strike as much passion from voters.

Marriage Story is not winning Best Picture

Why?  Because it didn't get the SAG ensemble nod? Well, neither did The Shape of Water and Greenbook.

Supporting Actress.  Baumbach is favored to win Original Screenplay.  Scott Feinberg has Baumbach predicted for a Director nod.

Marriage Story's in a weird spot right now. It's reasonable to assume it's fourth behind those three movies, but it could easily make a run at the #1 spot if it starts winning major industry prizes. Though Phoenix is favored to win the industry prizes, Driver is still hot on his heels. Also, Johansson feels like she's in a strong position to overtake Zellweger; I feel like Judy is losing steam and I think that if Johansson can wangle double nods, if history is any indication, she's favored to win at least one of those prizes, and Supporting Actress looks all but sewn up at this stage for Dern. All of a sudden, Marriage Story becomes a threat for two or possibly even three wins in acting. Original Screenplay seems like a hot contest between Bong and Baumbach, with Tarantino as an ever-present threat (but with two wins already, they might opt for a different path this year), and it's reasonable to think that Baumbach would get attention for writing over direction. Plus there's seemingly a spot in Best Director more or less wide open after Bong, Scorsese, Tarantino and Mendes; if Baumbach scores that over the likes of Phillips or Gerwig, then all of a sudden, Marriage Story becomes a massive threat to take it all, because it feels like the sort of compromise candidate on a preferential ballot that will win out, as all of the other contenders have various cons in their column.

I've cooled on Marriage Story as the frontrunner because Parasite is surging hard at the perfect time, but BAFTA still needs to tell the tale. If Song Kang-ho can score a Supporting Actor nod there and at the Oscars, I'd bet on it as the #1 candidate because it would show strength in just about every arena it needs to. Roma got damn close last year, but I think what killed it is that it just wasn't a crowdpleaser, which Parasite most definitely is (and it helps not to have the Netflix stigma). But Marriage Story feels like a likelier winner than either the Scorsese or the Tarantino because it just feels more like what the masses would gravitate towards, going off of history.