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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 22, 2019 23:51:40 GMT
I feel like three films have a real chance to win this. Once Upon a Time, Marriage Story and Parasite but I can’t decide right now.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 23, 2019 0:04:40 GMT
I guess Marriage Story but it's very close with OUATIH.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 23, 2019 0:06:40 GMT
Marriage Story but it should be Parasite.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 23, 2019 0:19:33 GMT
I feel like three films have a real chance to win this. Once Upon a Time, Marriage Story and Parasite but I can’t decide right now. Yes, I could see an argument for all 3. I really thought Marriage Story would be the overwhelming favorite, but it might not even win WGA even without OUATIH. So in that case, it probably loses, but if it wins WGA, maybe it could still beat OUATIH even if OUATIH wins Best Picture. It would be really strange, and I can't even compare it to when The Artist won Best Picture but Midnight in Paris won Best Original Screenplay because Tarantino would be closer to Allen, in that Tarantino could tie with Allen for number of Original Screenplay Oscar, unlike Baumbach who has only been nominated one time in his career. I can't use Manchester by the Sea as an example either because La La Land lost; although, I almost forgot again, lol. The Shape of Water lost, but I don't think it was ever really in the running for Original Screenplay as Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards were. The closest thing I can think of which would favor OUATIH not Marriage Story is when Birdman won, and some people thought that maybe they'd spread the wealth, and Birdman just won everything. I imagine that will be what happens here if OUATIH wins BP then people would just vote for it in most other places. So I went with OUATIH, but Parasite could surprise and Marriage Story isn't completely dead yet necessarily. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 23, 2019 0:24:19 GMT
So I find this category extra important this year because since the beginning of the preferential ballot era only two films have won Best Picture without a Screenplay win (and one was a silent film so that’s pretty understandable). While five have won without a director win and five have without an acting win. So it makes some sense to me that the winner of this category will likely be fighting it out with the winner of Adapted screenplay for Best Picture.
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Post by dadsburgers on Dec 23, 2019 13:52:28 GMT
I feel like this race is most similar to 2017. Tarantino equates to McDonagh, Bong Joon-ho to Jordan Peele, and of course Baumbach to Gerwig.
Parasite should win a la Get Out, and I feel like competition's not even as strong as 2017. I could see Baumbach winning too though.
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 23, 2019 14:16:40 GMT
I predict Scorsese will win for both BP and BD, so the original screenplay category will be the only shot these guys (Noah, Bong, QT) will have to grab a win this year.
And I prefer Bong or Baumbach for this. Tbh I wouldn't want QT to win another Oscar but the academy loves Tarantino and movies about old Hollywood, so he has a good chance.
On the other hand, I may be wrong and any of them wins BD or/and BP over Scorsese, who knows...
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Post by JangoB on Dec 23, 2019 14:47:47 GMT
I wish it were QT but I kinda think Parasite is gonna pull through here.
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Post by quetee on Dec 23, 2019 18:21:06 GMT
Parasite
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 23, 2019 18:52:55 GMT
I feel like three films have a real chance to win this. Once Upon a Time, Marriage Story and Parasite but I can’t decide right now. The Academy likes to spread the wealth. I can see Parasite taking Original Screenplay and Foreign Language Film. OUATIH Supporting Actor. Marriage Story Supporting Actress. The Irishman with Picture, Director. |
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 23, 2019 20:48:10 GMT
I predict Scorsese will win for both BP and BD, so the original screenplay category will be the only shot these guys (Noah, Bong, QT) will have to grab a win this year. And I prefer Bong or Baumbach for this. Tbh I wouldn't want QT to win another Oscar but the academy loves Tarantino and movies about old Hollywood, so he has a good chance. On the other hand, I may be wrong and any of them wins BD or/and BP over Scorsese, who knows... Yes, that's my whole thing, lol, I don't want Tarantino to win another screenplay Oscar especially for OUATIH. His ego is already big enough, I can't imagine how big it will be if he wins a third screenplay Oscar and maybe even BD and BP. I guess it's a good thing he only has one film left, so it will be easier to avoid his interviews where he talks about how he and Woody Allen are the only two people with 3 wins.  |
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Post by TerryMontana on Dec 23, 2019 20:55:21 GMT
I guess it's a good thing he only has one film left, so it will be easier to avoid his interviews where he talks about how he and Woody Allen are the only two people with 3 wins. I like QT but yes, his ego is huge!! At least he won't be having any BD Oscars, I guess.  |
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 24, 2019 0:01:55 GMT
Hollywood needs this if it's winning BP. To say otherwise is absolutely deluded. Sure the Academy likes spreading the wealth but the Screenplay Stat is too strong
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Dec 24, 2019 0:45:18 GMT
Hollywood needs this if it's winning BP. To say otherwise is absolutely deluded. Sure the Academy likes spreading the wealth but the Screenplay Stat is too strong Yeah but I don't think It would matter if it lost, anyway. These days, BP winners only won 2 Oscars and even BP category itself like Spotlight. Winning in Production design, Supporting Actor and maybe Costume is enough to support the BP win. QT always wins best screenplay while his films never win BP, this year it will reverse! His film will win BP or direction but lost in screenplay. Idk, just my prediction. Nope. Unless it's not a Screenplay heavy film ala The Shape of Water. Besides those movies that won less than 4 Oscars, won respectively for Screenplay |
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Post by dadsburgers on Dec 24, 2019 1:48:10 GMT
Yeah but I don't think It would matter if it lost, anyway. These days, BP winners only won 2 Oscars and even BP category itself like Spotlight. Winning in Production design, Supporting Actor and maybe Costume is enough to support the BP win. QT always wins best screenplay while his films never win BP, this year it will reverse! His film will win BP or direction but lost in screenplay. Idk, just my prediction. Nope. Unless it's not a Screenplay heavy film ala The Shape of Water. Besides those movies that won less than 4 Oscars, won respectively for Screenplay I don't see how The Shape of Water isn't a heavy screenplay film, but I don't see how it isn't a heavy ensemble film, either. Just because the visuals are even more outstanding doesn't mean its characters aren't rich as well (granted, maybe not as much as TBOEM, LB, or GO though). |
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 25, 2019 2:14:20 GMT
I predict Scorsese will win for both BP and BD, so the original screenplay category will be the only shot these guys (Noah, Bong, QT) will have to grab a win this year. And I prefer Bong or Baumbach for this. Tbh I wouldn't want QT to win another Oscar but the academy loves Tarantino and movies about old Hollywood, so he has a good chance. On the other hand, I may be wrong and any of them wins BD or/and BP over Scorsese, who knows... Yes, that's my whole thing, lol, I don't want Tarantino to win another screenplay Oscar especially for OUATIH. His ego is already big enough, I can't imagine how big it will be if he wins a third screenplay Oscar and maybe even BD and BP. I guess it's a good thing he only has one film left, so it will be easier to avoid his interviews where he talks about how he and Woody Allen are the only two people with 3 wins. He has NEVER bragged about being an Oscar winner, let alone a 2-time one. I've never even heard him bring it up. I don't know where you're getting this from. |
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