2019 Boston Society of Film Critics winners.

after watching both their films, the fact that Dern and Pitt are dominating their perspective races is the most baffling thing about this awards season to me.

Feels like critics are just being sheep and are just building narratives for these guys. I just can't believe the majority of critics can look at both of these performances and think their the best.

I'm surprised people are surprised by Pitt and Dern - this happens every year at least in modern times - critics groups very rarely pick who they think is best for a long tome now - they virtue signal, have an agenda with who they choose or piggyback previous groups.

They aren't exactly bastions of free-thinking integrity.....usually at least - there's some individual exceptions......but not much.....

Critics are not unlike many of us. I think this is just a sign that critics, like most other people, want to see Pitt and Dern win this year. I think OUaTiH is one of Pitt's top 3 performances, so I have no real complaints there, and Supporting Actress is just terribly weak this year, so who cares.

Not to mention that there seems to be this unspoken urge for critics to be seen as influential or "in the know" that they'll rally around preconceived frontrunners in an attempt to "shape the narrative." They may like the performances they reward, but the groupthink that seems to build critical sweeps leads me to think a lot of awards bodies want to be seen as prognosticators.

I felt like this in 2017 when it was clear Rockwell and Janney were going to win the televised awards. They didn't sweep the regional awards, but as we got closer to the Oscars, they started to win more which was disappointing to me because I was still hoping that at least Metcalf might be able to win because Lady Bird was a stronger film, at least Lady Bird was in phase I, and she was also a respected veteran of television and had done some film although certainly not as much or as recently as Janney, but it was just obvious the industry wanted Janney to have an Oscar.  



I'm glad that Pitt is finally going to win even though it feels a little weird that it's in supporting similar to when Zeta-Jones, Zellweger, Clooney, and Hathaway won there because of how big they were/are, but now now days there's not as much difference between the two, and Pitt has already won in another category. 

As for Dern, I'm glad that she's finally winning too. Her performance might not be the best, but I think it's fine, and as I said before Zhao Shuzhen or the Parasite ladies have no chance to win the category anyways, so I'm fine with Dern winning over Lopez, who I thought was okay but didn't feel win worthy to me either, or Robbie who did even less, imo than Dern at least in OUATIH. Johansson is good in Jojo Rabbit, and could possibly win there I suppose if she's double nominated as a consolation prize like Lange when she lost for Frances, but I'd rather she win in leading because she was much better in Marriage Story. Also I can't imagine how awkward it might be for Johansson to end up beating one of her costars. Sure Dern would be professional if it happened, but I would feel bad like when Close lost last year. I mean I was ecstatic that Colman surprised, but I also felt sad that Close seemed like she was finally going to win, and now she might not ever get another chance again. 

Bates was great in Richard Jewell, but she's already won, and the role doesn't really require her to do that much either. I haven't seen Pugh yet, but unfortunately for her Little Women hasn't taken off yet, and may not ever fully take off, and Pugh is very young and still not that known, so there's definitely going to be the mentality with some voters that she can win later on. I haven't seen Kidman yet either.

Beyond these few actresses, I don't see anyone else being nominated, and even within this pool, I think that the actresses that have a realistic shot of being nominated is even fewer. With Parasite, most of the campaigning now is on Song, and I think voters will have a difficult time trying to pick out their favorite female performance to nominate. Zhao has only shown up at the Critics Choice Awards so far, and The Farewell isn't a top 2 film like Roma. Bates missed SAG, and Richard Jewell flopped on opening weekend. 

Poor Sandler. I feel the neglect he’s getting from the bigger awards has less to do with him and more to do with a film that’s “anxiety inducing”. Feels like some viewers would keep that at the bottom of the screener pile unfortunately.

Critics rarely defy the studio mandate, unless they're being stupid like when LA give Lead Actress to Patricia Arquette for Boyhood.

I give Lopez a fair chance of beating Dern at the Globes, but I just can't imagine Lopez beating Dern at the Oscars even if that happens. I think she has too many disadvantages there (weaker movie, lone nomination, not as respected, baggage, etc.)

The Johansson thing is interesting. It's possible that if she gets double nominations and Zellweger really is undeniable that they could just reward Johansson in Supporting. But that feels a little weird, because Johansson is at that age and position in her career that wins Lead Actress for actresses, and (I think) her performance in Marriage Story is far more acclaimed. It's definitely plausible, though, and something I'll consider if she gets double nominations. For now, I only think she gets in Lead.

Robbie is actually someone that can potentially win the Globe. I don't think the Globes care as much about Dern having the career and respect, so if they feel like Robbie is the most deserving, they'll award a hot starlet over a respected veteran. And that could perhaps carry forward to the other precursors. Unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

Or maybe we're overthinking it and Dern just sweeps. She's doing way better with critics award than I would have expected, so what do I know

I just can't help but think he's our frontrunner. Guy's already on the late-night circuit, his film is making bank, he has the added benefit of not being a prior Oscar winner, and I just feel his film will appeal to that branch in a big way. It just keeps gathering steam.

Les Mis won the Jury Prize in Cannes, so it did as well there as Portrait Of A Lady On Fire, if not a bit better.