Laura Dern in Marriage Story doesn't seem like a BSA winner

But does it scream loud enough?

I haven’t seen every performance that won for Supporting Actress, but I do think career achievement and other factors have played a part as much as internal transformation perhaps even more. Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems in this category especially this decade it’s been a way to honor a respected veteran’s career and/or to honor one of the strongest nominees in the category with a few “it” girl wins.

2018 - King - Critics favorite/Respected veteran from television and film.

2017 - Janney - Scene stealing role/Respected veteran from television and film.

2016 - Davis - Strong film/Respected veteran from television and film.

2015 - Vikander - Critics favorite for Ex Machina/Banner year/“It” girl/Only nominee in the category from a Best Picture nominee didn’t get every precursor and Spotlight was a weak BP winner. 

2014 - Arquette - Critics favorite/Strong film/Respected veteran from television and film.

2013 - Nyong’o - Critics favorite/Strong film/Lawrence had won the year before, and I believe would have been the youngest two time winner or one of the youngest two time winners. 

2012 - Hathaway - Gets to sing the showstopper./America’s Sweetheart type of winner like Roberts, Witherspoon, and Bullock./Field and Hunt were previous winners. SLP was already winning actress and Weaver wasn’t given much to do. 

2011 - Spencer - Scene stealing role/Respected television and film veteran.

2010 - Leo - Scene stealing role/Critics favorite/Respected television and film veteran.

2009 - Mo’Nique - Scene stealing role/Critics favorite/Not that Mo’Nique was losing, but it didn’t help that Up in the Air really deflated in phase II of voting.

While Dern may not get to do too much, she fits the mold of winners this decade by being a respected television and film veteran that is also will likely be in the strongest film of the category or one of the strongest films.

The trouble with Robbie is that even if she’s nominated for OUATIH instead of Bombshell, critics haven’t singled her out for it, and even with Bombshell she’s not been singled out yet. Johansson missed the Globes nomination, so whoever wins there gets an advantage over her. Of course Lopez seems like Dern’s biggest competition now, but Hustlers is unlikely to be nominated for anything else. To me Lopez feels very much like a Stallone, Keaton, Rourke, Murphy, or Reynolds, in that there’s too much baggage even if a few of them won more critics awards, and that the nomination is the reward. 

Demographics have changed within the Academy, but I think that NYFCC and a few other groups but especially them really dealt a big blow to Lopez’s chances. Before NYFCC the argument was that Lopez would win there and be more of a critics favorite than Dern who some felt did nothing, but instead the first few critics backed Dern. I haven’t checked the scorecard lately, but I would guess that it’s pretty close with Pugh maybe being in third now after picking up some recent wins. It doesn’t mean that Lopez can’t pull ahead in the end with the critics awards, but that was going to be one of her advantages over Dern yet so far that didn’t quite happen.

ETA: I just checked the scorecard and right now Dern has 6 wins while Lopez and Pugh both have two. 

I'm pretty convinced she will be the winner.

But I can't really understand why her upcoming win is so undeniable...

Very weak year in the category.

Even though it's one-dimensional and relatively small, the role is showy enough to get attention and Dern plays it with a complete lack of subtlety. That being said, I do agree that the recognition she is getting has more to do with her career than this particular performance, which is nowhere near her best work.

I think that four of last years supporting actress nominees could have won this year. Very week field.

To me she seems exactly like a winner.

Considered overdue...tick
Weak field in the limited vision of awards circles...tick
A showy moment for the clip...tick

I said it in my review of the film on its thread, but it would be a shame if this is the performance an actress of the level of Laura Dern wins for, but I'm over it. It's happening.

Her S1 performance was great - she was the epitome of that sort of woman whose social skills are very good yet horrible at the same time. 

In S2 she was just a hammy caricature of who she was in S1. In her defense, the writing was nowhere near as good as it was in the first season. 

If Marriage Story does well in nominations like getting in at Directing and Editing then Dern will win. If Hustlers gets surprise nominations like Picture or Screenplay then she has a big chance. If both underperform and Bombshell does really well then Robbie may be the beneficiary.

After seeing Little Women, I like her much more there; although, I'm one of the few it seems that likes her in Marriage Story here and would be okay with her winning, just because I don't think Lopez did all that much either aside from her introduction and no one else has a chance to win, and it wouldn't be the worst recent win in this category.

I prefer Pugh more in Little Women, but Dern is still great and certainly better than Sarandon who was nominated for the same role, imo. I would prefer that Dern were nominated for LW instead of MS, but either way I think that her performance in LW will help her clinch her victory for MS especially if LW is a late hitter like I think it will be after seeing it. After the Globes and SAG and the other guilds, I did worry, but there's so many elements that I think BAFTA and AMPAS will go for. Not sure what happened during its guild run, but for SAG, I think Bombshell being about the television industry probably helped it with the AFTRA voters, similar to how The Morning Show also did better than expected. It was also probably also too much to ask SAG to nominate Parasite and not nominate Jojo Rabbit and Bombshell, so I'm glad they at least made some good decisions.

The Globes are the Globes, although I'm still mad that I guess they didn't deem Florence Pugh a big enough star yet compared to Kathy Bates or Annette Bening to nominate when Pugh was much better than both imo.

Have to correct; Sarandon was nominated for "The Client" at that year (for which she also won a BAFTA). No one other than Winona have made it from the cast and I believe even she was bit of a surprise, considering rather weak precursor run.